Overdose Prevention Program Break-Even Analysis: $48K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $16.9K/mo Core fixed base

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $20.9K/mo Revenue needed

Break-even timing Month 2 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for an overdose prevention program.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that must cover variable costs and fixed costs. $ Lower revenue Higher revenue Variable expenses These are the direct costs that rise as program volume grows. $ Lower direct cost Higher direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $293,604 $345,417 revenue - $51,813 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base contribution margin has to cover. $ Lower fixed cost Higher fixed cost

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with training volume in an overdose prevention program?

Cost classification

Break-even is reliable only when kit procurement, manuals, and commissions move with revenue while rent and core admin payroll stay fixed. Treating naloxone kits as fixed will overstate margin as distribution volume grows.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Administrative Office Rent	Fixed	Use $3,500 per month in the base overhead load.	Tying rent to class count when the lease does not flex monthly.
CRM and Scheduling Software	Fixed	Use $450 per month as stable operating overhead.	Spreading it per training group and hiding the true monthly nut.
Professional Liability Insurance	Fixed	Use $800 per month unless coverage limits change.	Dropping insurance below break-even because it is not tied to sessions.
Program Director payroll	Fixed	Use $110,000 annually, or about $9,167 per month, at 1.0 FTE.	Treating leadership payroll as variable when it stays in place at low volume.
Lead Instructor payroll	Semi-fixed	Add capacity in steps as staffing rises from 2.0 FTE in the first year to 6.0 FTE by the fifth year.	Averaging instructor payroll across all years and missing hiring cliffs.
Naloxone Kit Bulk Procurement	Variable	Model as 8.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 6.0% by the fifth year.	Treating kit spend as fixed when distribution volume drives usage.
Training Manuals and Supplies	Variable	Model as 3.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 1.0% by the fifth year.	Forgetting that every added group needs materials and handouts.
Direct Sales Commissions	Variable	Model as 5.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 3.0% by the fifth year.	Putting commissions in fixed overhead and overstating contribution margin.

How does break-even change from a lean pilot to a full regional rollout?

Scenario table

Here’s the quick read: higher occupancy and more billable days push revenue up faster than fixed costs, so break-even gets safer as the program scales. The lean pilot is tight, the base case is comfortable, and the full rollout has the widest cushion.

Planning assumptions only; results can move if utilization, staffing, or pricing changes.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean pilot	$71,750	$13,633	$39,000	81%	$19,118	Near break-even, so a slow month can wipe out the cushion.
Base community program	$165,333	$28,107	$45,250	83%	$91,976	Revenue clears fixed costs with room to absorb softer demand.
Full regional rollout	$345,417	$51,813	$56,900	85%	$236,703	Strong utilization covers overhead and gives the widest margin.

What breaks first if revenue slips or costs creep up?

Stress test

The base plan has a $23.7k monthly cushion, but it disappears fast. Revenue can fall about 33%, fixed costs can rise about 49%, or margin can slide to 54% before the launch is exposed.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$48,100	$23,700 cushion	Base plan is covered.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 33% to $48,100.	$48,100	$0 gap	Any further drop turns profit into loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 49% to $58,100 a month.	$71,800	$0 gap	No buffer is left if overhead creeps.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls from 81% to 54%.	$72,200	$400 gap	Small cost creep pushes the month below break-even.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 20% and contribution margin slips to 54%.	$72,200	$14,800 gap	Lower volume plus thinner margin creates a real operating gap.

Is your naloxone training pipeline strong enough to justify the first-month burn?

Founder checklist

Verify signed or highly likely group volume before you hire past the Year 1 payroll load. This model only works if demand, supply, and cash all hold through the Month 2 cash dip.

1Partner Volume45 groups

Confirm near-signed demand from 15 corporate, 10 educational, and 20 hospitality groups before you lock in the first hiring wave.

2Fixed Load$7.75K/mo

Keep the $3,500 office lease off the table until outreach can carry the $7,750 monthly non-payroll fixed load.

3Contribution Margin81% CM

Check that 8% naloxone procurement, 3% training supplies, and 8% variable spend still leave about 81% contribution.

4Payroll Load$31.25K/mo

Do not hire beyond the Year 1 payroll load until booked sessions can support it, because the modeled team already costs $31,250 a month.

5Reserve Cushion$873K

Hold the modeled cash floor, since minimum cash lands in Month 2 and the launch burn is front-loaded.

6Pipeline GateMonth 2

Only buy launch capex and the mobile training vehicle when the event pipeline can carry breakeven by Month 2.