Padel Center Break-Even Analysis: About $56K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $46.2K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 97.6% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $47.3K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 14 Cash turns

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a padel center.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Total monthly income before direct costs. More revenue gives more room to cover fixed costs. $ Soft month Busy month Variable expenses Direct costs that rise with court use, coaching, shop sales, and cafe sales. $ Tight costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $53,250 $56,250 revenue - $3,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

95%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs The monthly cost base your contribution margin has to cover. $ Lean base Bigger base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales at a padel court facility?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if rent, payroll, and usage-linked expenses are put in the right buckets. Here, fixed overhead starts with $22,500 per month before wages, so treating staff or supplies too lightly can overstate margin.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Lease Payment	Fixed	Use $15,000 per month across the planning range.	Treating rent as flexible when bookings dip.
Club Manager	Semi-fixed	Use $70,000 per year at 1.0 full-time equivalent.	Ignoring required management coverage before volume scales.
Head Padel Coach	Semi-fixed	Model $60,000 salary with staffing rising from 1.0 to 2.0 full-time equivalents.	Treating coaching capacity as fully variable.
Front Desk Staff	Semi-fixed	Use $35,000 salary with 2.0 full-time equivalents in the first year.	Undercounting coverage needed for opening hours.
Utilities Electricity Water	Semi-variable	Start with the $3,500 monthly baseline, then watch usage as court hours rise.	Ignoring utility spikes from lighting and facility load.
Pro Shop Inventory Cost	Variable	Apply 60% of pro shop sales in the first year.	Treating inventory purchases as fixed overhead.
Cafe Food & Beverage Cost	Variable	Apply 40% of cafe sales in the first year.	Missing spoilage risk in low-traffic periods.
Sales Commissions & Event Costs	Variable	Apply 50% in the first year to volume-linked sales and event activity.	Forgetting tournament-related selling and event expense.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to a full padel center?

Scenario table

Lean launch is close to break-even, but the first-year model still shows a loss. Once utilization reaches the base case, the cushion turns positive, and the full case gives room for slower weeks.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with court use, staffing, and local demand.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch	$56.3k	$10.1k	$46.2k	82%	-$0.1k	Tiny cushion; a slow open still misses break-even.
Base stabilized case	$72.6k	$12.6k	$49.4k	82.6%	$10.6k	Clears break-even with a modest monthly cushion.
Full utilization case	$144.8k	$21.7k	$58.7k	85%	$64.4k	Strong cushion; break-even risk drops as utilization rises.

What breaks first if bookings slip or costs rise?

Stress test

Year 1 sits very close to break-even, so small misses matter. A 10% drop in revenue, a 10% cost overrun, or a move from 18% to 23% variable expense can turn a thin cushion into a real loss.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$564,000	$1,500 gap	The base plan is almost at break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% from the base plan.	$564,000	$57,750 gap	Slower memberships or court bookings push cash burn.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to $508,000.	$619,512	$57,012 gap	Lease, utilities, or staffing overruns widen the hole.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 18% to 23%.	$600,624	$38,124 gap	Weak shop or cafe margins cut the cushion fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable expenses rise to 23%.	$659,740	$153,490 gap	All three hits at once create a sharp cash strain.

Can the site, courts, and opening demand support break-even before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Yes, but only if the site can carry about $46.2K of monthly fixed burn and the opening mix holds the model’s 82% contribution margin. Break-even lands in Month 14, so you need real proof on demand and cash before you sign or spend.

1Fixed burn$46.2K/mo

Verify the lease, utilities, and Year 1 payroll can hold near this level, because the model only works if monthly fixed cash burn stays close to break-even.

2Court bookings15,000 Y1

Test whether the site can really drive 15,000 court bookings in Year 1, because that pace is the core demand proof behind the break-even case.

3Coaching volume3,000 Y1

Make sure coaching demand can reach 3,000 sessions in Year 1 without stretching staff too thin, since the plan already ramps the coaching role.

4Contribution mix82% CM

Hold variable costs near the model’s 18% load, including pro shop inventory, café food, court consumables, and event costs, so each sales dollar still covers fixed burn.

5Launch mix$105K Y1

Pre-sell memberships toward the $50,000 Year 1 plan and confirm cafe plus pro shop can add the other $55,000, because the opening mix needs non-court cash early.

6Cash cushion$353K floor

Fund the listed $560,000 capex and keep at least the $353,000 minimum cash cushion, since Year 1 EBITDA is still negative and break-even lands in Month 14.