Paint and Sip Studio Break-Even Analysis: $228K/Month Target

Fixed costs $16.1K Launch base

Contribution margin 71% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $22.7K Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 25 Launch ramp

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly revenue covers variable costs and the fixed studio cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash pool that pays direct costs and overhead. $ Low sales Busy months Variable expenses Use direct costs that move with each booked session and sale. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $24,640 $28,562 revenue - $3,922 variable expenses

Margin ratio

86%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use the monthly cost base the studio must cover either way. $ Lean setup Large studio

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales for this studio?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense lands in the right bucket. Here, $4,000 monthly rent is fixed, while supplies, inventory, and marketing move with sales; mixing those up can shift the Month 25 break-even target.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Studio Rent	Fixed	Use $4,000 per month in base overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating rent like it falls when attendance is low.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $800 monthly base, then expect usage pressure as session volume rises.	Modeling the full utility bill as perfectly fixed.
Booking System Software	Fixed	Include $150 per month as recurring overhead for launch planning.	Leaving software out because it feels small.
Studio Manager and Lead Art Instructor Payroll	Fixed	Treat the $65,000 manager salary and $55,000 lead instructor salary as core launch overhead.	Spreading salaried staff across sessions as if they vary by guest.
Part-time Instructor and Studio Assistant Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model staffing in steps because FTE rises as class volume and operating scale increase.	Scaling labor smoothly with every booking instead of adding shifts in blocks.
Art Supplies	Variable	Apply the first-year 8.0 rate to activity volume because canvases, paint, and materials rise with attendance.	Treating supplies as fixed after the initial stock purchase.
Beverage & Snack Inventory	Variable	Use the first-year 5.0 rate so inventory moves with beverage and snack sales.	Counting add-on sales as pure margin.
Marketing Campaign Spend	Variable	Model first-year spend at 4.0 and reduce it to 3.0 by the mature year.	Locking marketing at one flat amount while bookings scale.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to a full studio in this paint and sip business?

Scenario table

Lean launch volumes leave the studio just under break-even, the Year 2 run clears it with a small cushion, and the mature Year 5 case is well ahead. Higher ticket mix and add-on sales lift contribution margin, but added staffing pushes fixed costs up.

These are planning assumptions, not guarantees, and actual results can move with demand, pricing, and staffing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch studio	$19.1k	$3.7k	$18.3k	80.5%	-$2.9k	Still below break-even; Month 25 is the model target.
Base year 2 studio	$28.6k	$5.4k	$19.5k	81.1%	$3.7k	Clears break-even with a small cushion.
Full mature studio	$58.7k	$10.0k	$25.0k	83.0%	$23.7k	Well above break-even; this is the strongest cushion.

What pushes this paint and sip studio below break-even?

Stress test

Year 1 revenue runs about $19,125 a month, while break-even sits near $22,774, so the base case starts with a $3,649 gap. Weak private-party bookings, higher supply and ad spend, or hiring before demand catches up will widen it fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$22,774	$3,649 gap	The base case starts below break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Private-party bookings fall to zero.	$22,774	$8,232 gap	Lost party revenue opens a much wider hole.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise by $1,000 a month.	$24,020	$4,895 gap	Rent, payroll, or software creep slows payback.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 1 point to 20.5%.	$23,080	$3,955 gap	Higher supplies, fees, or ad spend eat the margin.
Combined pressure	Private parties fall to zero and variable expenses rise 1 point.	$23,080	$8,538 gap	Low demand plus cost creep can swing the month hard.

Can this studio break even before you lock the lease?

Founder checklist

Yes, but only if pre-sold bookings, fixed costs, and staffing all line up with the model. If you cannot show demand and cash to survive to Month 26, wait on the lease.

1Pre-sold Volume$229.5K

Pre-sell public sessions, private parties, and kids sessions until signed bookings support the Year 1 revenue run rate of about $229.5K; if the pipeline is smaller, the lease is too early.

2Fixed Load$6.05K/mo

Keep rent and fixed overhead near the modeled $6.05K a month, because every extra fixed dollar has to be covered before the studio sees steady traffic.

3Unit Margin80.5% CM

Keep art supplies, beverage and snack inventory, processing, and campaign spend near the plan so Year 1 contribution margin stays around 80.5% and the math still works.

4Booked Capacity447/mo

Make sure the room and the opening 3.0 FTE team can handle at least 447 monthly guest visits at about $51 per visit, then add labor only when bookings hold.

5Cash Cushion$782K / M26

Hold enough cash to reach the Month 26 low point and the 50-month payback window, with the model pointing to a $782K minimum cash need.

6Launch Stack6 systems

Test booking software, payments, cleaning, insurance, website, and utilities before launch so the first events do not slip because of basic setup gaps.