Painting Contractor Break-Even Analysis: $33K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $22.6K/mo Monthly base

Contribution margin 72% After job costs

Break-even revenue $31.3K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 5 Profit month

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, direct project costs, and fixed overhead to see where a painting contractor breaks even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that covers direct job costs and overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct job costs rise with each project, like crew labor, paint, fuel, and lead gen. $ Lean costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $41,400 $57,500 revenue - $16,100 variable expenses

Margin ratio

72%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead your contribution margin has to cover. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which painting contractor expenses stay fixed, and which move with job volume?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if each expense follows the right behavior. Treating hired crews like fully variable job labor can understate the sales needed to cover payroll before the calendar is full.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office rent and utilities	Fixed	Use $1,750 per month in the break-even base because it stays the same across normal job volume.	Spreading rent per job and making break-even look easier when volume rises.
Business insurance	Fixed	Use $500 per month as fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Ignoring it because it is not tied to one project invoice.
Paint and material supplies	Variable	Model at 7% of revenue in the first year, falling to 5% by the fifth year.	Using a flat monthly amount even though materials rise with painted jobs.
Painting crew labor and benefits	Variable	Model at 16% of revenue in the first year, falling to 12% by the fifth year.	Mixing direct job labor with salaried crew capacity and losing payroll visibility.
Project vehicle fuel and maintenance	Variable	Model at 2% of revenue in the first year, falling to 1.2% by the fifth year as route density improves.	Treating fuel like fixed overhead when more jobs mean more site trips.
Annual marketing budget	Semi-variable	Scale from $15,000 in the first year to $55,000 in the fifth year as lead demand grows.	Using customer acquisition cost alone and missing the planned spend ramp.
Salaried crew and office roles	Semi-fixed	Add capacity in steps: lead painters at $60,000 per year, painters at $45,000 each, plus later office and sales hires.	Treating all payroll as variable even when staff are hired before jobs are booked.

How does break-even move from a lean crew to a full painting operation?

Scenario table

As the crew and office grow, fixed overhead rises faster than the margin on each dollar of revenue, so break-even revenue climbs. The full plan only works if booked work keeps the crews busy.

Planning figures only; actual results will move with pricing, utilization, and project mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean crew startup	$27.6k	$7.7k	$19.8k	72.0%	$0	Near break-even; any delay in booked work can flip it negative.
Base crew buildout	$55.9k	$13.5k	$42.4k	75.9%	$0	Utilization matters more here; unfilled crews raise break-even risk.
Full crew scale	$77.9k	$15.7k	$62.3k	79.8%	$0	Higher scale helps, but only if the pipeline stays full.

What pushes a painting contractor below break-even?

Stress test

The plan sits close to the line at about $331K monthly break-even revenue, with $238K fixed costs and 28% variable expenses. A 10% booking miss, overhead creep, or waste in labor and materials can push it into loss.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Base case holds at $238K fixed costs and 28% variable expenses.	$331K	$0 gap	It breaks even only if bookings hold.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% from plan to about $298K.	$331K	$24K gap	A modest booking miss turns the month negative.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise by $2K a month.	$359K	$28K gap	Overhead creep eats the cushion fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise to 33%, cutting contribution margin to 67%.	$355K	$24K gap	Waste, overtime, and fuel spikes raise the break-even line.
Combined pressure	Revenue slips 10%, fixed costs rise $2K, and variable expenses rise to 33%.	$359K	$61K gap	Bookings, costs, and margin all move the wrong way.

Can you prove the booked work, pricing, crew, and cash before you buy the vans and equipment?

Founder checklist

Test the model against break-even before you commit to the first big spend. If booked work, pricing, and cash do not cover the Month 5 break-even path and the Month 2 cash gap, the launch burns money before the plan can catch up.

1Booked Work$331K/mo

Verify signed jobs can support at least $331K in monthly revenue before you commit to the vans and crew ramp.

2Cost Stack72% CM

Check every estimate includes 16% crew labor and benefits, 7% paint and materials, 3% project lead gen, and 2% fuel and maintenance so contribution stays near 72%.

3Fixed Load$238K/mo

Make sure overhead and payroll stay near $238K a month before profit, because the break-even math only works if booked work clears that load.

4Crew Ramp4.0 FTE

Verify the opening crew of 1 owner/project manager, 1 lead painter, and 2 painters can cover the booked mix before you hire office or sales support.

5Cash Need$776K

Hold $776K by Month 2 before the $60K vans, $25K equipment, $10K scaffolding, and $4K power washer hit cash, or the launch can stall.

6Launch CAC$250 CAC

Check that early lead flow can hold a $250 CAC on a $15K marketing budget, then improve as spend scales, or the sales plan will miss the breakeven date.