Pan-Asian Restaurant Break-Even Analysis: $68K Monthly Sales

Fixed costs $29.6K/mo Core monthly base

Contribution margin 83% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $35.7K/mo Revenue to cover base

Break-even timing Month 3 Model break-even point

Break-even calculator

This calculator tests monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed monthly costs against break-even for a Pan-Asian restaurant.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the top line that funds fixed costs after direct costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with sales, like inventory, card fees, and guest supplies. $ Lower cost Higher cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $282,400 $311,200 revenue - $28,800 variable expenses

Margin ratio

91%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base contribution margin has to cover. $ Lean base Heavy base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which restaurant expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales volume?

Cost classification

Break-even gets reliable only when rent, base admin, labor steps, and sales-linked costs are separated. If payroll or inventory is misclassified, Month 3 break-even can look safer than the cash plan supports.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Lease Payment	Fixed	Include $10,000 per month in the fixed operating base.	Treating rent as if it falls when covers dip.
Utilities Base	Semi-variable	Start with the $2,000 monthly base, then allow usage to rise with kitchen and dining volume.	Modeling only the base bill during higher-cover months.
Business Insurance	Fixed	Include $750 per month as a stable fixed expense.	Spreading insurance across each guest check as a variable charge.
Cleaning Services	Semi-fixed	Use the $1,200 monthly base, with step-ups when service volume or operating days require more cleaning.	Assuming cleaning rises smoothly with every cover.
General Manager and Head Chef Payroll	Fixed	Treat core management payroll as fixed during the monthly break-even planning range.	Cutting leadership payroll in low-sales scenarios without an operating plan.
Bartender, Server, Line Cook, Dishwasher, and Host Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model labor in staffing steps because full-time equivalent headcount rises by year as volume grows.	Using a flat payroll percentage and missing shift coverage thresholds.
Food and Beverage Inventory	Variable	Tie food and beverage inventory directly to sales using the modeled inventory percentages.	Holding ingredient purchases flat while revenue and covers increase.
Credit Card Fees and Guest Supplies	Variable	Apply these as sales-linked expenses because payment fees and guest-use items move with order volume.	Putting fees and supplies into fixed overhead, which overstates margin at low volume.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to a full dining room?

Scenario table

As covers and checks rise, revenue grows faster than the fixed lease and labor stack, so the break-even cushion improves across the three cases. The model reaches break-even in Month 3, but that still depends on hitting the planned guest mix.

Planning assumptions only; actual covers, checks, and labor can move the break-even line.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch plan	$194.9k	$20.0k	$56.4k	89.8%	$118.5k	Positive margin, but lean volume leaves less room for slow weekdays.
Base Year 3 scale	$311.2k	$28.8k	$71.9k	90.8%	$210.6k	This is the model's break-even zone and gives the clearest cushion.
Full Year 5 scale	$443.4k	$35.9k	$83.1k	91.9%	$324.4k	Strongest cushion, as long as staffing and service stay tight.

What breaks first if sales slip or costs rise?

Stress test

Base case clears break-even, but the cushion shrinks fast if weekly traffic drops below 865 covers, weekend checks weaken, or payroll grows before sales do. This math is before financing, taxes, and reserves.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$679K	$1.27M cushion	Healthy buffer, but it still depends on steady traffic.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls to $679K.	$679K	$0 gap	The plan sits right on break-even, so any further drop hurts.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed monthly costs rise to $1.617M.	$1.95M	$1K cushion	A small overhead bump would wipe out the cushion.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise to 71.1% of sales.	$1.95M	$0 gap	At planned sales, operating profit disappears.
Combined pressure	Monthly revenue falls to $679K and fixed costs rise to $1.617M.	$1.95M	$1.27M gap	Traffic and cost drift together would force a major reset.

What should you verify before you sign the lease and fund the opening buildout?

Founder checklist

Before you commit, make sure the site, menu, staff, and cash plan can carry the break-even load. If the room can’t support the covers and check sizes in the model, the lease gets heavy fast.

1Site Load$56.4K/mo

Make sure the room can support about $56.4K a month in fixed load, or the lease turns into a drag before demand lands.

2Covers Test865 weekly covers

Test whether weekday and weekend traffic can really reach 865 weekly covers in Year 1, because that is the demand floor behind the model.

3Check Mix$42 / $58

Validate that midweeks can hold a $42 check and weekends a $58 check, since the menu only works if those prices stick.

4Margin Terms8% / 5%

Lock supplier terms so food inventory stays near 8% of revenue and beverage inventory near 5%, because margin slips show up fast here.

5Staffing Ramp10.5 FTE

Stage hiring toward 10.5 FTE in Year 1 and about $40.1K a month in payroll, so labor comes online with traffic instead of ahead of it.

6Cash Runway$716K Month 2

Hold $716K minimum cash in Month 2 so the $335K buildout and opening spend do not starve the launch.