People Counting Technology Break-Even Analysis: $98K/Month

Fixed costs $78.3K Monthly fixed base

Contribution margin 80.1% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $97.8K Monthly target sales

Break-even timing Month 26 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a foot-traffic sensor and analytics business.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that pays both cost types. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs tied to sales and installs. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $113,661 $137,417 revenue - $23,756 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead break-even must cover. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, and which move with sales in a people counting sensor business?

Cost classification

Classify variable items below revenue and keep fixed overhead in monthly burn; otherwise Month 26 break-even can look earlier than it is. In the first year, fixed baseline is about $78,300 per month including payroll, listed overhead, and the $120,000 annual marketing budget.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Sensor Hardware Unit Costs	Variable	Subtract 8.0% of first-year revenue before fixed-cost coverage.	Treating inventory like rent.
Cloud Infrastructure and Data Storage	Semi-variable	Subtract 4.0% of first-year revenue and track usage as data volume grows.	Ignoring usage growth.
Third-Party Installation Commissions	Variable	Subtract 5.0% of first-year revenue tied to installations.	Burying field labor in overhead.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Subtract 2.9% of first-year revenue from each paid account.	Forgetting small fees at scale.
Headquarters Rent	Fixed	Include $6,500 per month in fixed overhead.	Spreading rent across each new customer.
Software Development Tools & Licenses	Fixed	Include $1,800 per month in the fixed-cost base.	Linking core tool spend to sales volume.
Customer Support Platform Fees	Fixed	Include $800 per month while service capacity fits the plan.	Ignoring support tooling in break-even burn.
Staffing Payroll	Semi-fixed	Include about $52,500 per month in first-year payroll, then add hiring blocks as headcount rises.	Modeling every role as a per-customer expense.

How does break-even change from a lean pilot to a base rollout and a full deployment?

Scenario table

As installs scale, recurring subscription revenue carries more of the load, so each dollar of sales absorbs overhead better. The lean pilot still sits under break-even, the base rollout clears it, and the full rollout builds a wider cushion.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even shifts with install speed, renewal mix, and fixed headcount.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean pilot	$22.8k	$4.5k	$86.5k	80.1%	-$68.2k	Still below break-even, so this is a proof stage.
Base regional rollout	$137.4k	$23.8k	$53.3k	82.7%	$60.3k	Break-even is behind this case, so sales can fund growth.
Full multi-store rollout	$456.9k	$66.7k	$115.8k	85.4%	$274.4k	Strong cushion here, but slower installs can still delay it.

What breaks the break-even plan for this people counting system?

Stress test

The base case only clears at about $97.8k monthly revenue on $78.3k of fixed overhead and 80.1% contribution margin. A 20% revenue miss, 10% overhead creep, or a 5-point margin hit all push the plan back into a monthly gap.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$97,800	$0 gap	No cushion; any deal delay extends cash burn.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue runs 20% below break-even.	$97,800	$15,700 gap	Slower pilot-to-paid conversion opens a mid-teens monthly hole.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead rises 10% to about $86,100 a month.	$107,600	$7,800 gap	Rent, tools, and support costs tighten the cushion.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 points, cutting contribution margin to 75.1%.	$104,300	$4,900 gap	Higher freight or installation labor bites margin first.
Combined pressure	Revenue runs 20% below plan while fixed costs rise 10% and margin falls to 75.1%.	$114,600	$27,400 gap	Slow pilot closes and cost creep can reopen the cash gap.

What should you verify before buying sensors and scaling the rollout?

Founder checklist

Before you buy sensors, hire field teams, or add warehouse space, make sure paid pilots, funnel conversion, and cash math all clear the break-even bar. If Year 1 CAC, conversion, or rollout capacity misses the model, the commitment is too early.

1Paid pilots$1.2K CAC

Close paid pilots at or below the Year 1 CAC target before you buy sensors in bulk, so demand is proven, not assumed.

2Launch funnel2.5% / 15%

Check that visitors convert to free trials near 2.5% and trials to paid near 15%, because launch math has to feed the sales pipeline.

3Break-even load$97.8K/mo

Stress-test Year 1 revenue, about $22.8K a month, against the $97.8K monthly break-even and keep fixed commitments near the $78.3K base.

4Margin check80.1% CM

Keep Year 1 variable costs near 19.9% of revenue, which leaves about 80.1% contribution margin, and watch install or cloud costs that push it lower.

5Install coverageMonth 13

Verify third-party installers can handle multi-store rollouts and that support coverage is ready before Month 13 customer success hiring, or delivery will bottleneck growth.

6Cash runway$2.053M trough

Reserve for the $2.053M cash trough around Month 25 and remember Month 26 breakeven is not payback; cash payback lands in Month 56.