Plumbing and HVAC Break-Even Analysis: $59K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $38.7K/mo Payroll plus overhead

Contribution margin 73% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $53.0K/mo Target monthly sales

Break-even timing Month 6 Model break-even point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a plumbing and HVAC business.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that covers direct costs and fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These rise with each job, like materials, subcontract labor, fleet costs, and sales support. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $51,100 $70,000 revenue - $18,900 variable expenses

Margin ratio

73%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin must cover. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which plumbing and HVAC expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even lands in Month 6 only if salaries and rent stay fixed while materials, subcontract labor, fleet usage, and sales support move with revenue. Misclassifying technician salaries as variable understates the revenue needed before schedules fill.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Rent ($3,500/month)	Fixed	Include the full monthly rent in break-even overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent across jobs and making break-even look easier than it is.
CRM Software Subscriptions ($300/month)	Fixed	Count the full subscription as monthly overhead, regardless of service volume.	Linking software spend to jobs when the bill is due even in a slow month.
Vehicle Insurance (Fleet) ($1,200/month)	Fixed	Treat fleet insurance as a monthly coverage expense before any van produces revenue.	Modeling it like fuel and understating the fixed base needed to operate.
Salaried Field and Admin Payroll	Fixed	Include salaried owner, technician, dispatcher, and coordinator pay in fixed monthly overhead for the current staffing plan.	Treating technician payroll as purely variable when salaries are paid before calendars are full.
Direct Project Materials (18% in first year)	Variable	Apply materials as a percentage of revenue because parts and units rise with completed jobs.	Using one flat monthly parts budget and missing margin changes as sales mix shifts.
Subcontracted Specialized Labor (4% in first year)	Variable	Model subcontract labor against revenue when specialty work is tied to booked projects.	Counting subcontractors as fixed staff even when usage follows job volume.
Fleet Operating Costs (3% in first year)	Variable	Tie fuel, route wear, and service-driving expense to revenue or completed job volume.	Ignoring van usage and overstating contribution margin during busy months.
Added Vans, Technicians, or Dispatch Staff	Semi-fixed	Add these in steps when job volume exceeds current crew, vehicle, or scheduling capacity.	Assuming growth is smooth when capacity usually jumps in chunks.

How does break-even change from lean to full staffing in plumbing and HVAC?

Scenario table

More technicians lift capacity, but they also add payroll and overhead. So break-even moves up with scale unless booked demand and technician utilization rise fast enough.

Planning cases only; service mix allocations overlap, so treat break-even as directional.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean Year 1 setup	$587k	$158k	$429k	73%	$0	Lowest overhead, so break-even is easier to hit, but demand dips hurt sooner.
Base Year 2 setup	$775k	$194k	$581k	75%	$0	This is the hinge case; more crew lifts capacity, but it needs steady booked work.
Full Year 5 setup	$1.27m	$242k	$1.03m	81%	$0	Best margin on paper, but only if utilization stays high enough to keep the bigger team busy.

What breaks the break-even plan for a plumbing and HVAC company?

Stress test

Year 1 break-even is about $587K on $429K of fixed overhead and a 73% contribution margin, the share left after variable costs. Slow demand, 10% higher overhead, or a 5-point margin hit can push the plan below break-even fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Base case: fixed overhead is $429K and variable expenses stay at 27%.	$587K	$0 gap	No cushion if demand slips.
Shortfall	Revenue runs 10% below the break-even plan.	$587K	$43K gap	Weak close rates leave no cushion.
Fixed-cost	Fixed overhead rises 10% to $471K.	$646K	$59K gap	Rent, fleet, or admin creep lifts the floor.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise to 32%, cutting contribution margin to 68%.	$630K	$43K gap	Callbacks, fuel spikes, and downtime squeeze each job.
Combined	Revenue runs 10% light, overhead rises 10%, and variable expenses hit 32%.	$693K	$112K gap	Slow demand plus cost creep breaks the plan fast.

Are you ready to sign the lease and buy vans before booked work proves the model?

Founder checklist

Confirm lead flow, cash, and capacity before you lock in rent, vans, and inventory. The model needs Year 1 marketing of $50,000, CAC near $150, and a $673K cash floor in Month 5, so breakeven only works if work is booked fast enough.

1Lead Flow$150 CAC

If $50,000 of Year 1 marketing runs at $150 CAC, you get about 333 customers; prove that flow before you add fixed costs.

2Fixed Load$38.7K/mo

Your fixed load is about $38.7K a month, so don't add rent, vans, or staff until booked gross profit covers it.

3Margin Mix73% CM

Year 1 variable costs take 27% of revenue, leaving about 73% contribution margin before fixed costs; tighter material control protects breakeven.

4Staffing Ramp5.5 FTE

Start with the 5.5 FTE base and only add technicians when billable hours stay full; Year 2 ramps to 8.0 FTE.

5Cash Floor$673K

Keep the $673K cash floor through Month 5, because the model does not reach breakeven until Month 6.

6Launch Volume$587K/mo

Line up enough repair, install, maintenance, and emergency jobs to reach the $587K monthly revenue target, and check parts stock before you promise install volume.