Poke Bowl Restaurant Break-Even Analysis: $52K Monthly Sales

Break-Even Metric Cards

Fixed costs $43.2K/mo Overhead plus labor

Contribution margin 82.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $52.3K/mo Monthly target sales

Break-even timing Month 3 Model breakeven

Break-Even Calculator

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a poke bowl restaurant.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin left to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are the direct costs that rise with sales, like ingredients and promo spend. $ Tight costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $257,056 $304,547 revenue - $47,491 variable expenses

Margin ratio

84%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead contribution margin has to cover. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales for a poke bowl restaurant?

Cost classification

Your break-even is only as good as the cost split. Put stable monthly items like $8,000 rent in fixed costs, and move order-linked items like ingredients, marketing, and supplies through variable margins.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent/Lease Payment	Fixed	Use $8,000 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent across orders and hiding the real monthly hurdle.
Insurance	Fixed	Use $400 per month as a stable operating expense in the break-even base.	Leaving insurance out because it feels small next to payroll.
Property Taxes	Fixed	Use $500 per month in fixed overhead for the planning range.	Treating property taxes as seasonal instead of reserving monthly.
POS System & Software Subscriptions	Fixed	Use $250 per month as a fixed system cost tied to staying open.	Counting only hardware and missing the recurring subscription charge.
Waste Management	Fixed	Use $350 per month as fixed overhead unless the vendor bills by pickup volume.	Assuming trash scales neatly with sales without checking the contract.
Salaried Restaurant Payroll	Semi-fixed	Use about $31.3k per month in the first year, based on $376k annual salaries divided by 12.	Calling all labor variable when managers, chef roles, and base staffing stay in place.
Food Ingredients	Variable	Use 10.0% of sales in the first year, declining to 8.0% by the fifth year.	Using one flat food percentage forever and missing planned purchasing gains.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Split the $1,500 monthly model amount between base service and usage if bills rise with volume.	Keeping the full amount fixed when higher traffic drives refrigeration, water, and power use.

How does break-even shift from a lean opening year to a full Year 3 run?

Scenario table

As volume rises, break-even gets easier because fixed costs spread over more sales. Dine-in eases from 65% to 63% while catering grows from 10% to 12%, and the added staffing still leaves a margin cushion.

Planning figures are model-based assumptions, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean opening year	$1,491K	$261K	$432K	82.5%	$798K	Above the $524K break-even line, but the cushion is smallest.
Base Year 2	$2,144K	$354K	$486K	83.5%	$1,304K	Above the $582K break-even line with room to spare.
Full Year 3	$2,861K	$446K	$539K	84.4%	$1,876K	Above the $639K break-even line, with the widest cushion.

What breaks the break-even plan for a poke bowl restaurant?

Stress test

The base plan clears break-even, but the cushion shrinks fast if traffic stays below 42 orders per day, rent rises above $8K, or delivery fees climb without menu-price support. In this model, margin pressure matters more than startup spend.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$524K	$967K cushion	Base case clears break-even by a wide margin.
Revenue shortfall	Sales fall 20% from the Year 1 plan.	$524K	$669K cushion	A traffic miss cuts cushion, but it does not break the model.
Fixed-cost pressure	Monthly fixed costs rise 10%.	$576K	$915K cushion	Higher rent or overhead eats cushion fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise by 5 percentage points.	$558K	$933K cushion	Ingredient or fee pressure raises the floor.
Combined pressure	Sales fall 20%, variable expenses rise 5 points, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$744K	$449K cushion	Traffic and cost pressure together cut the buffer hard.

Can this poke bowl shop clear break-even before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Only commit if the site can carry the modeled sales, rent, and staffing before you buy equipment or lock the lease. The model needs steady traffic, tight supplier pricing, and enough cash to survive the Month 2 low point.

1Sales run-rate$158.8K/mo

Verify the site can sell this much in the first year, because break-even only works if traffic reaches the forecast.

2Fixed load$11.9K/mo

That is the monthly non-wage overhead, so keep rent near the modeled $8,000 or the break-even bar jumps.

3CM floor82.5% CM

Lock fish, rice, produce, beverage, and supply quotes so the 17.5% variable plan holds.

4Labor plan9.5 FTE

Staff to this headcount from day one, because Year 1 labor runs about $31.3K a month before overtime.

5Cash floor$797K

The cash trough hits in Month 2, so do not open unless this reserve is already in place.

6Launch build$293K

Pressure-test the Month 1 to Month 7 build and keep opening marketing near 2.5% of sales until traffic proves out.