Poker Room Break-Even Point: About $113K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $53.9K/mo Core monthly base

Contribution margin 92% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $58.6K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 14 Model break point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly poker room revenue against variable costs and fixed overhead, then see how far you are from break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Use the monthly sales run rate that drives contribution for the room. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses Use costs that rise with volume, like payment processing and promotions. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $153,564 $166,917 revenue - $13,353 variable expenses

Margin ratio

92%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use rent, payroll, and other monthly overhead that break-even must cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which poker room expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense behaves the way the model says it does. Fixed items set the monthly hurdle, while variable and staffing-linked items decide how much profit each added player visit keeps.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Include $10,000 per month in the fixed monthly break-even hurdle.	Spreading rent per player and hiding the real monthly nut.
Insurance	Fixed	Include $2,200 per month before calculating required contribution.	Dropping it below the line instead of in operating break-even.
Gaming Supplies	Variable	Apply 1.0% of revenue as usage tied to play volume.	Budgeting a flat amount even as visits rise.
Beverage Ingredients	Variable	Apply 3.5% of revenue against food and beverage activity.	Using gross drink sales without the ingredient drag.
Payment Processing	Variable	Apply 2.5% of revenue because fees rise with card volume.	Forgetting processing fees when card payments grow.
Dealers	Semi-variable	Model labor by full-time equivalents because staffing rises from 5.0 to 13.0 FTE as traffic grows.	Treating dealer labor as fully fixed while adding tables.
Utilities	Semi-fixed	Start with $3,000 per month, then review when hours, tables, or bar volume step up.	Assuming no change after adding capacity.
Gaming Licenses	Semi-fixed	Include $1,800 per month, with step checks as the room scales operations.	Modeling licenses as sales-linked instead of capacity-linked.

How does break-even change from a lean to a full poker room?

Scenario table

Lean is still loss-making because fixed payroll and overhead eat most of the $76.1k monthly revenue. Base gets to break-even around Month 14 as seat fees, tournament rakes, F&B, private events, sponsorships, and merchandise scale up.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even can move with occupancy, staffing, and event mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean poker room	$76.1k	$6.1k	$87.8k	92.0%	-$17.8k	Still below break-even; fixed costs outpace contribution.
Base poker room	$118.3k	$9.5k	$104.3k	91.9%	$4.6k	Break-even lands around Month 14, so profit is still thin.
Full poker room	$251.8k	$20.2k	$159.3k	92.0%	$72.3k	Clear cushion above break-even; growth now feeds profit.

What breaks the break-even plan for this poker room?

Stress test

Year 2 is only a little above break-even, so a small sales dip or modest cost creep pushes this room into loss. The main watch points are a 5% revenue drop, a 5% fixed-cost bump, and margin pressure from higher variable expenses.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$118,000	$333 cushion	Only a thin cushion remains.
Revenue shortfall	Year 2 revenue falls 5% to about $112,400 per month.	$118,000	$5,600 gap	A small sales dip flips monthly profit negative.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed operating costs rise 5%, or about $5,200 per month.	$123,700	$5,300 gap	Overhead creep eats the full cushion fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 8.0% to 13.0% of revenue.	$119,500	$1,200 gap	Profit turns negative even without a sales drop.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed costs rise 5%, and variable expenses rise 3 points.	$121,200	$14,700 gap	That combo creates a fast monthly cash burn.

Should you sign the lease and fund opening night before the poker room can prove break-even math?

Founder checklist

Test the Year 2 demand path, fixed rent, and staffing plan before you commit. The model only works if volume reaches the projected $113,000 monthly run rate and cash stays above the $424,000 floor by Month 24.

1Demand proof45K / 6K / 30K

Verify the room can hit the Year 2 path of 45,000 seat fees, 6,000 tournament rakes, and 30,000 F&B units, because that is the volume base behind the projected $113,000 monthly run rate.

2Lease load$10K/mo

Keep base rent near the modeled $10,000 a month and include the $1,800 gaming license line, because fixed occupancy cost hits before traffic does.

3Margin mix92% CM

Check that gaming supplies, beverage ingredients, payment processing, and promotions stay at the modeled 8.0% of sales, so contribution margin stays near 92% before payroll and rent.

4Staffing ramp13.0 FTE

Confirm Year 1 coverage at 5 dealer FTE, 1.5 security FTE, 2.5 bar server FTE, plus the management and maintenance team, or payroll will outrun the opening-month cash flow.

5Cash floor$424K

Hold at least the model’s $424,000 minimum cash cushion, because it is not safe to rely on early wins when the low point lands in Month 24.

6Control setupMonth 14

Lock cash counts, surveillance, access control, and tournament procedures before opening night, because the model does not reach break-even until Month 14 and weak controls can erase thin margins.