Pre-Made Meal Subscription Break-Even: $566K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $26.7K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $33.0K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and fixed costs.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue has to clear direct meal costs before it can cover overhead. $ Low sales Strong sales Variable expenses These rise with each meal sold, like food, packaging, shipping, and card fees. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $64,881 $80,100 revenue - $15,219 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the business must cover before profit starts. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which pre-made meal subscription expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets reliable only when food, packaging, and payment fees move with revenue while rent, platform fees, and core payroll stay fixed. Misclassifying one large item can make Month 1 break-even look cleaner than operations really are.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Food & Ingredient Costs	Variable	Apply as 10.0% of revenue in the first year, then reduce to 8.0% by Year 5.	Treating ingredients as fixed and overstating contribution margin.
Kitchen Supplies	Variable	Apply as 0.5% of revenue in the first year, falling to 0.3% in later years.	Ignoring small usage items that still rise with meal volume.
Packaging & Shipping	Variable	Apply as 6.0% of revenue in the first year, improving to 5.0% by Year 5.	Modeling delivery materials as overhead instead of order-linked spend.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply as 2.5% of revenue in the first year, then 2.0% in the mature year.	Leaving card fees out of contribution margin math.
Kitchen Rent	Fixed	Include $8,000 per month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent across meals and hiding the monthly cash hurdle.
Technology Platform Fees	Fixed	Include $2,500 per month as a recurring operating expense.	Treating the platform fee like a one-time app build.
CEO / Founder and Head Chef payroll	Fixed	Include first-year salaries as fixed operating payroll: $80,000 and $75,000 annually.	Removing founder pay to force an artificial break-even result.
Kitchen Staff	Semi-fixed	Model staffing in steps as capacity grows from 2.0 FTE in Year 1 to 6.0 FTE in Year 5.	Making labor fully variable when hiring happens in headcount blocks.

How does break-even change from lean to base to full scale for this meal subscription?

Scenario table

Break-even gets easier as the mix shifts to denser routes: variable costs fall from 19.0% in the lean case to 15.3% in the full case, and CM rises from 81.0% to 84.7%. The catch is higher payroll and marketing fixed costs.

Planning cases only; actual break-even will move with churn, route density, and labor use.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean case: Year 1 mix	$56.7K	$10.8K	$38.3K	81.0%	$7.7K	Above break-even, but the cushion is still narrow.
Base case: Year 3 mix	$108.2K	$18.6K	$74.7K	82.8%	$15.0K	Comfortably past break-even if subscriber growth holds.
Full case: Year 5 mix	$147.6K	$22.6K	$104.3K	84.7%	$20.8K	Best cushion; route density helps absorb overhead.

What breaks the break-even plan if revenue slips or costs climb?

Stress test

At about $566K of Year 1 revenue against $459K of fixed costs, break-even sits near $567K. So a small sales miss, a 1-point margin dip, or early hiring can push the model back into the red.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Year 1 revenue holds near plan and fixed costs stay at $459K.	$567K	$1K gap	The starting cushion is thin.
Revenue shortfall	Trial-to-paid conversion slips to 27.0%, cutting Year 1 revenue about 10%.	$567K	$58K gap	A modest miss removes most of the cushion.
Fixed-cost pressure	Add $5K of monthly overhead before subscriber density improves.	$629K	$63K gap	Extra overhead needs more paid volume fast.
Margin pressure	Packaging and shipping rises 1 point to 7.0% of sales.	$574K	$8K gap	One point of shipping cost eats the cushion.
Combined pressure	Year 2 fixed costs rise to $688K as added staff and marketing come on early.	$840K	$274K gap	Do not add headcount before demand is proven.

Is this meal subscription ready for a lease, staff, and inventory?

Founder checklist

Only sign the lease and hire against the real funnel, not the spreadsheet alone. The model points to about 900 paid subscribers in Year 1, but the $893,000 minimum cash need and fixed overhead have to hold first.

1Trial Path900 paid subs

With $150,000 of Year 1 marketing at a $2.50 CAC, the plan buys about 60,000 visitors, 3,000 trials, and 900 paid subscribers, so test this path before you lock fixed kitchen spend.

2Lease Load$13.8K/mo

Kitchen rent is $8,000 a month, and fixed overhead is $13,800 before wages, so compare that load to real output before you sign the lease.

3Margin Check81.0% CM

Food, supplies, packaging, and processing take 19.0% of revenue in Year 1, so verify menu pricing and pack sizes hold that margin before you buy excess inventory.

4Staff Ramp2 FTE

You start with 2 kitchen staff in Year 1 and move to 3 in Year 2, so only hire when weekly meal volume fills the current crew.

5Cash Buffer$893K

The model’s minimum cash is $893,000 in Month 1, so keep that reserve untouched before you turn on bigger ad spend or payroll.

6Launch Setup$5K / Month 1

Food safety certifications and licenses cost $5,000 in Month 1, so clear that step before production and the first delivery window.