Private Members Club Break-Even Analysis: $272K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $218.8K/mo Monthly cost base

Contribution margin 80.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $271.7K/mo Revenue to cover fixed

Break-even timing Month 9 Model break-even point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue against variable expenses and fixed monthly costs for a private members club.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that has to cover club overhead. $ Low sales Busy club Variable expenses These rise with sales, like event costs, service fees, and processing. $ Lean spend Heavy spend

Money available to cover fixed costs $122,300 $152,000 revenue - $29,700 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

$54,783 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base your margin has to cover. $ Tighter base Bigger base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which private members club expenses are fixed and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets reliable only when rent, payroll, and usage-linked expenses sit in the right buckets. Here, fixed overhead starts high, so small classification errors can move Month 9 break-even.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Commercial Lease/Rent	Fixed	Use $75,000 per month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating rent as flexible after signing.
Utilities and facility overhead	Fixed	Use $30,000 per month combined for utilities, insurance, maintenance, security, cleaning, software, and supplies.	Forgetting small monthly overhead adds up.
Core management payroll	Semi-fixed	Use $45,000 per month for the General Manager, Head of Member Experience, Executive Chef, Wellness Coordinator, and Maintenance Technician.	Hiring full teams before member volume.
Hospitality Staff and Community & Events Manager	Semi-variable	Start at $22,500 per month in the first year, then raise full-time equivalent headcount as service load grows.	Understaffing peak nights.
Food, event, and wellness delivery expenses	Variable	Apply 10.0% of first-year revenue: 5.0% food and beverage, 3.0% event supplies and staffing, and 2.0% provider fees.	Pricing events without direct delivery expense.
Transaction and member activity fees	Variable	Apply 9.5% of first-year revenue for payment processing, member engagement events, and sales commissions.	Ignoring fees on every transaction.
Annual Marketing Budget	Semi-fixed	Use $500,000 per year, or $41,667 per month, in the first year before layering in CAC analysis.	Mixing CAC spend with commissions.

How does break-even shift from a lean opening to a full mature private members club?

Scenario table

Contribution margin (CM) improves from 80.5% in a lean opening to 85.5% in a full mature club, so the club needs fewer active accounts to cover fixed costs even as payroll and overhead rise.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even will move with member mix, pricing, and spend.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean opening plan	$271,739	$52,989	$218,750	80.5%	$0	Near break-even; about 125 active accounts.
Base operating plan	$311,118	$53,201	$257,917	82.9%	$0	Break-even risk is tighter, but about 109 active accounts covers overhead.
Full mature plan	$325,146	$47,145	$278,125	85.5%	$0	Best cushion; about 90 active accounts covers the higher payroll load.

What pushes this private members club off break-even?

Stress test

With $218,750 of fixed overhead each month, the club has little room for weak sign-ups or margin slippage. A 10% revenue miss, a 10% cost bump, or five points of margin loss each move break-even fast; all three together drive about a $55,900 monthly loss.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change from the base case.	$271,700	$0 gap	At plan, there is no cushion if traffic slips.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue drops 10% to $244,500.	$271,700	$27,200 gap	A 10% miss creates about a $21,900 monthly loss.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead rises 10% to $240,625.	$298,900	$27,200 gap	Payroll or rent growth outruns volume and lifts break-even.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise five points to 24.5%.	$289,700	$18,000 gap	Lower event margins add about $18,000 to monthly break-even.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 10%, fixed overhead rises 10%, and variable expenses rise five points.	$318,700	$74,200 gap	All three hits together drive about a $55,900 monthly loss.

Should you sign the lease before the member pipeline proves this club can break even?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock the $75,000 lease or the full opening spend until you can show enough demand for the Year 1 mix and enough cash to survive the Month 12 low point. Month 9 break-even is not the same as cash safety.

1Demand proof125 accounts

Verify the opening pipeline can support about 125 active member accounts, because weak early fill makes the lease and payroll hard to carry.

2Fixed load$177.1K/mo

Verify the club can carry the $75,000 lease plus the $72.1K Year 1 payroll and the other $30K of fixed overhead before you commit.

3Margin check80.5% CM

Verify food, event, wellness, processing, and commission costs stay near 19.5% of revenue so contribution margin holds near 80.5% and break-even does not slip.

4Staffing ramp9.5 FTE

Verify the Year 1 staffing plan stays near 9.5 FTE and $72.1K monthly payroll, because adding headcount before demand is real burns cash fast.

5Cash reserve-$3.475M

Plan for the Month 12 cash low of negative $3.475M, since the business can hit break-even on paper and still run short on cash.

6Launch stackMonth 9

Verify security, cleaning, and software are in place before launch month, because a late opening can push the Month 9 break-even line out.