Speakeasy Bar Break-Even Analysis: ~$100K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $81.2K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 87% After variable spend

Break-even revenue $92.8K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 14 Model crossover

Break-even calculator

Use this to test whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and fixed costs.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Higher sales give you more room to cover fixed overhead. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These rise with sales, like food, beverages, marketing, and card fees. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $83,600 $101,500 revenue - $17,900 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead contribution margin has to cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which bar expenses are fixed, variable, or rise with traffic?

Cost classification

Break-even gets fragile when sales-linked spend is treated like rent. Keep stable overhead fixed, move COGS and card fees with revenue, and step labor up only when traffic needs more shifts.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Restaurant lease/rent	Fixed	Include $12,000 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating rent as a percent of sales instead of a monthly hurdle.
General Manager, Head Chef, and Sous Chef salaries	Fixed	Include Year 1 leadership payroll of $225,000 per year, or $18,750 per month, in fixed monthly costs.	Calling salaried leadership variable just because guest counts change.
Servers, bartenders, and host staff	Semi-fixed	Model Year 1 payroll at $314,000 per year, then add FTEs in steps as covers rise.	Assuming labor moves penny-for-penny with each extra guest.
Food Costs and Beverage Costs	Variable	Apply Year 1 COGS at 14.5% of revenue: 11.0% food plus 3.5% beverage.	Using the wrong COGS rate or leaving inventory out of contribution margin.
Marketing & Advertising	Variable	Use 2.5% of revenue in Year 1, then reduce to the forecast rate by year.	Locking marketing as a flat monthly line when the model ties it to revenue.
Credit Card Processing	Variable	Apply 1.5% of revenue across all five years before calculating break-even volume.	Forgetting card fees because they look small per check.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Keep the $2,000 monthly base in overhead and review usage-driven overages as traffic grows.	Treating utilities as fully fixed even when service volume stretches the space.
Insurance, permits, POS systems, and professional services	Fixed	Include $2,300 per month in fixed overhead: $750 insurance, $300 permits, $450 systems, and $800 services.	Mixing recurring compliance and admin costs with one-time opening spend.

How does break-even change from a lean opening month to a full Year 2 trade-up?

Scenario table

Break-even moves when weekend traffic and weekday fill rates lift faster than labor and rent. Lean still misses the mark, base covers fixed costs, and full builds a wide cushion from stronger Friday and Saturday demand plus more private events.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will shift with traffic, menu mix, labor, and event volume.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean opening run-rate	$900K	$166K	$812K	81.6%	-$78K	Still short by about $78K a month.
Base break-even target	$996K	$184K	$812K	81.6%	$0	This is the break-even line.
Full Year 2 trade-up	$1.47M	$258K	$874K	82.4%	$333K	Weekend demand and weekday lift leave a strong cushion.

What breaks the break-even plan?

Stress test

The base case is already tight, so slower weekdays, overtime, higher liquor purchases, and extra door security can push it into a gap fast. Small misses on traffic or margin show up quickly in monthly cash flow.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change; revenue stays at $900K per month.	$997K	$97K gap	The base case still sits below break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% to $810K per month.	$997K	$187K gap	A small traffic miss turns into a six-figure gap.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs run 10% higher, mostly from labor or rent.	$1.097M	$197K gap	Higher fixed costs raise the sales bar fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 18.5% to 23.5% of sales.	$1.061M	$161K gap	More pour cost or waste lowers margin even if traffic holds.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, variable margin drops 5 points, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$1.167M	$357K gap	That mix drives about a $274K monthly loss.

Can this hidden-entrance bar clear break-even before you lock in the lease?

Founder checklist

Test the commitment against the model’s break-even load before you spend on the lease, the buildout, or the opening team. If the site, staffing, or launch plan can’t hold cash through Month 13, wait.

1Break-even scale$996K/mo

Verify the lease can carry roughly $996K a month in break-even revenue, because the $17.9K monthly fixed bill starts on day one and makes the site a cash test, not a brand test.

2License pathBefore hire

Confirm the liquor license path before hiring bartenders or buying opening inventory, since those costs only pay off once drinks can open on day one.

3Buildout gate$225K

Check the hidden entrance layout, vendor timing, and occupancy fit before décor spend, because the $150K leasehold work, $75K furniture and decor, and $25K opening inventory are sunk fast if the space does not work.

4Margin mix87.4% CM

Here’s the quick math: food is 70% of sales with 11% food cost, beverages are 25% with 3.5% cost, and marketing plus card fees add 4.0%, so Year 1 contribution margin is about 87.4%.

5Payroll ramp$63.3K/mo

Map staffing to the Year 1 team of 1 GM, 1 head chef, 1 sous chef, 4 line cooks, 6 servers, 2 bartenders, 2 dishwashers, and 1 host, and do not add shifts before demand proves out.

6Cash cushion$223K

Hold enough cash to cover the Month 13 minimum need of $223K, confirm POS and reservation setup before launch month, and delay nonessential marketing if weekday covers stay below the Year 1 plan of 30, 35, 40, and 50 per day.