Pub Break-Even Point: $318K Monthly Sales To Cover Costs

Fixed costs $25.6K/mo Year 1 payroll

Contribution margin 80.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $31.8K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 4 Model breakeven

Break-even calculator

Use this to test whether monthly revenue covers variable spend and the fixed cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash pool that covers variable costs and overhead. $ Quiet month Busy month Variable expenses Food, beverage, delivery, and promo spend rise with sales. $ Low outflow High outflow

Money available to cover fixed costs $64,994 $78,780 revenue - $13,786 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Rent, wages, utilities, and admin sit in the fixed base. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which pub expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

For this pub model, break-even works only if stable overhead stays separate from sales-linked inputs. Here’s the quick math: fixed overhead is $6.2K/month before payroll and about $25.6K/month with first-year payroll; direct variable expenses run 19.5% of sales.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Include $4,000/month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating rent as lower when daily covers rise.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Use the $800/month model amount as the base, then separate any usage-linked overage when bills prove it.	Locking the full utility bill as fixed forever.
Business Insurance	Fixed	Include $200/month in fixed overhead for the planning range.	Moving insurance with sales instead of time.
Point-of-sale system fees	Fixed	Include the $150/month platform fee in fixed overhead.	Bundling transaction-linked fees into the fixed fee line.
Food Ingredients	Variable	Model as 11.5% of first-year sales, declining to 9.5% by the mature year.	Treating inventory purchases as fixed overhead.
Beverage Supplies	Variable	Model as 3.0% of first-year sales, declining to 2.5% by the mature year.	Using a flat dollar amount even as covers grow.
Delivery Commissions	Variable	Model as 3.0% of first-year sales, falling to 2.5% in later years.	Treating delivery commissions as fully fixed.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Add about $19.4K/month for first-year payroll, then step it up as full-time equivalents increase.	Treating hourly labor as either fully fixed or fully variable.

How does break-even shift from a lean pub to a full build-out?

Scenario table

Higher covers and bigger checks push revenue up faster than fixed costs, so break-even gets safer as the pub scales. Still, the cushion only holds if labor and inventory stay under control.

Planning cases only; actual break-even will move with cover mix, check size, staffing, and spoilage.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean Year 1 pub	$413K	$81K	$256K	80.5%	$76K	Only a $76K cushion, so small cost overruns can erase profit.
Base Year 3 pub	$788K	$138K	$357K	82.5%	$293K	Healthy cushion, but staffing and stock control still matter.
Full Year 5 pub	$1,348K	$216K	$420K	84.0%	$712K	Strong cushion, but scale only works if labor and inventory stay tight.

How much traffic loss or cost pressure breaks the pub’s break-even plan?

Stress test

The first-year plan clears break-even at about $318K a month, with roughly $76K of operating cushion. Still, a 10% sales dip, a 10% fixed-cost jump, or a 5-point margin squeeze can erase that buffer fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$318K	$76K cushion	The plan clears break-even, but the buffer is not deep.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10%.	$318K	$43K cushion	Slow weeknights start to eat the safety margin.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 10%.	$350K	$63K cushion	Rent, utilities, and wage load push break-even higher.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 points, cutting margin.	$339K	$74K cushion	Discounting, comps, and higher wage rates thin the margin fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 15%, fixed costs rise 10%, and margin drops 5 points.	$373K	$22K gap	Traffic, labor, and margin pressure together can flip the month negative.

Can this pub clear break-even checks before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Use this checklist to test the lease, staff, and cash before you commit location spend. The model reaches break-even in Month 4, so the site has to carry the Year 1 cover count and the early cash draw from day one.

1Demand proof535/wk

Verify the site can pull 535 weekly Year 1 covers before you sign the lease, because the room has to carry the traffic that pays the fixed load.

2Fixed load$25.6K/mo

Add the listed fixed costs and Year 1 payroll, and make sure average monthly sales can clear about $25.6K before growth.

3Contribution80.5% CM

Keep variable costs near 19.5% of sales, because that contribution margin funds rent and payroll after every sale.

4Staffing ramp6.5 FTE

Verify 6.5 FTE can handle the forecast covers without service lag, because slow turns cut table throughput and ticket count.

5Launch timingMonth 4

Use Month 4 as the first go-or-no-go checkpoint, because the model says that is when break-even starts, and delay pushes payback back.

6Cash buffer$838K

Keep enough cash to absorb the Month 2 low point and the $4K opening stock buy, and confirm supplier terms, because the model's minimum cash need is $838K.