Pumpkin Patch Break-Even Analysis: $365K Year 1 Revenue Target

Fixed costs $6.0K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 84% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $7.1K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 9 First positive month

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue against variable expenses and fixed costs to see when the farm covers overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue This is the cash coming in each month from pumpkins and guest activities. $ Low sales Peak sales Variable expenses These rise with sales, like crop inputs, promotions, and guest activity supplies. $ Lean spend High spend

Money available to cover fixed costs $20,400 $24,000 revenue - $3,600 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the farm must cover even before extra sales. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which pick-your-own farm expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets shaky when fixed bills, revenue-linked supplies, and seasonal staffing are blended together. Classify them correctly, and the Month 9 break-even target becomes easier to test and manage.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Property Taxes & Liability Insurance	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month before calculating contribution margin.	Spreading it across harvest months only.
Property Overhead & Base Lease	Fixed	Include $1,200 per month as committed site overhead.	Linking base lease to visitor traffic.
Website & POS System Subscriptions	Fixed	Include $300 per month as recurring selling infrastructure.	Treating subscriptions as a one-time setup item.
Utilities (Farm & Retail Buildings)	Semi-variable	Model the $800 monthly base, then add usage for peak event days.	Assuming power and water stay flat during busy weekends.
Farming Inputs (Seeds, Fertilizer, Fuel, Irrigation)	Variable	Apply 4% of first-year revenue in the contribution margin calculation.	Budgeting inputs as a flat monthly bill.
Harvest & Post-Harvest Processing Supplies	Variable	Apply 3% of first-year revenue as sales volume rises.	Ignoring packing and handling needs during harvest months.
Marketing & Promotions	Variable	Use 6% of first-year revenue to size demand-generation spend.	Cutting promotion spend right before peak season.
Seasonal Staff (FTE equivalent)	Semi-fixed	Commit 2.0 FTE in the first year, then step up as scale requires.	Treating seasonal payroll as purely variable after staff are scheduled.

How does break-even shift from a lean crop-only patch to a full 10-hectare farm?

Scenario table

Here’s the quick math: revenue rises with acreage, but fixed labor and farm overhead rise too. Even the full case still sits below break-even on crop sales alone, so add-on income or lower overhead matters.

Planning assumptions only. Weather, yields, staffing, and add-on sales can move the break-even point.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean 5-hectare crop-only patch	$11,462	$1,834	$25,558	84.0%	-$15,931	Still far below a roughly $30.4k monthly break-even run rate.
Base 7-hectare pumpkin patch	$18,703	$2,655	$30,938	85.8%	-$14,890	Better, but still short of a roughly $36.1k monthly break-even run rate.
Full 10-hectare pumpkin patch	$30,954	$4,024	$34,860	87.0%	-$7,930	Closest case, yet still under a roughly $40.1k monthly break-even run rate.

What breaks first if weather turns bad, costs rise, or margin slips at the pumpkin patch?

Stress test

Year 1 starts at about $137,540 of revenue against about $306,700 of fixed costs, so it still loses roughly $191,200. A 20% revenue dip, a 10% fixed-cost jump, or weaker margin each pushes break-even further out.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$365,119	$227,579 gap	Base Year 1 sits about $191,200 below break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue drops 20% from the base plan.	$365,119	$255,087 gap	Rainy peak weekends can widen the loss fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% from the base plan.	$401,631	$264,091 gap	Locked payroll and overhead push break-even higher.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls to 80%.	$383,375	$245,835 gap	Spoilage above 8% or weaker pricing cuts cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 20%, fixed costs rise 10%, and margin falls to 80%.	$421,713	$311,681 gap	At the stressed level, the model loses about $249,300.

What should you verify before you lock the pumpkin patch season?

Founder checklist

Check land access, crop mix, staffing, and launch setup against the Month 9 break-even path before you commit. The model needs a long cash runway, so the opening season has to be built for traffic and harvest at the same time.

1Land Access5 ha / 4 leased

Confirm you can control 5 hectares in Year 1 and budget the 4 leased hectares at about $600 per month, because the land split drives your fixed load.

2Crop Mix50/15/20/10/5

Verify the planting map matches the planned mix before you buy seed or hire labor, since pumpkins take half the area and the rest must support fall traffic.

3Yield Loss8.0%

Test whether an 8.0% yield loss fits this site, because a worse loss rate cuts saleable volume and pushes break-even out.

4Payroll Ramp$227.5K

Lock staffing only after you match payroll to expected visitor flow, because Year 1 wages already total $227.5K before seasonal labor swings.

5Cash Cushion-$76K / 107 mo

Make sure you can fund the early cash draw and long payback, since minimum cash goes to -$76K and payback stretches to 107 months.

6Launch Stack$365.1K

Do not spend on marketing until parking, traffic flow, signs, safety, insurance, POS, and harvest labor are ready, because the break-even plan only works if crop sales plus admission or activity income can reach this target.