Recirculating Aquaculture System Break-Even: About $77K/Month

Fixed costs $17.8K/mo Monthly overhead base

Contribution margin 80.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $22.1K/mo Overhead-only target

Break-even timing Month 12 Model reaches zero

Break-even calculator

Use this to test how monthly sales, variable costs, and fixed overhead drive break-even in a recirculating aquaculture system.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Use the monthly sales run rate you expect the farm to clear. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with sales, like feed, power, packaging, and shipping. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $4,289,750 $5,076,627 revenue - $786,877 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead break-even has to cover. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales in a recirculating aquaculture system?

Cost classification

Break-even only works when stable overhead is split from unit-driven inputs. Rent, insurance, lab fees, and audits set the monthly floor; juveniles, feed, packaging, and cold-chain costs move with production volume.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Administrative Office Rent	Fixed	Include $5,000/month in monthly overhead from Month 1.	Spreading rent per kg and hiding cash burn.
Facility Insurance	Fixed	Include $4,500/month even before harvest volume stabilizes.	Dropping insurance during ramp-up break-even math.
Water Quality Lab Subscriptions	Fixed	Include $1,200/month as a recurring testing charge.	Leaving testing out until a compliance issue appears.
Purchased Juveniles	Variable	Model $4 to $5 per juvenile against stocked headcount.	Ignoring mortality before estimating saleable harvest volume.
Sustainable High Protein Feed	Variable	Apply as COGS: 10.0% in the first year, declining to 5.5% in the mature year.	Holding feed flat while biomass and product mix change.
System Electricity and Water Filtration	Semi-variable	Split base system load from production load; usage runs from 4.0% to 2.2% of revenue.	Treating power as purely fixed.
RAS Maintenance Contract	Semi-fixed	Carry $3,800/month, then step it up when system scale or uptime needs rise.	Leaving upkeep out of break-even revenue.
Operating Labor	Semi-fixed	Start with first-year staffing at $530,000 annually; add headcount in steps as scale grows.	Treating all labor as variable per kg.

How does break-even change from lean to full in a recirculating aquaculture system?

Scenario table

Break-even gets easier as harvest weight, price, and product mix rise from lean to full. Month 12 break-even and Year 1 EBITDA of -$679k show the launch ramp, not the steady-state margin, is the hard part.

Planning figures are model assumptions, not promises. Launch cash can still run negative before the mature margin shows up.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch-year case	$409,500	$79,853	$61,967	80.5%	$267,681	Revenue clears the break-even base, but launch cash still stays tight.
Base Year 5 case	$787,827	$122,108	$61,967	84.5%	$603,752	The cushion widens as harvest volume and price step up.
Full mature-year case	$1,681,411	$176,548	$105,717	89.5%	$1,399,146	This is the widest cushion; fixed costs are covered with room to spare.

What breaks the break-even plan if sales slip or costs jump?

Stress test

The base plan has a wide monthly cushion, but it tightens fast if revenue drops, feed and power rise, or fixed overhead grows. The combined stress case still clears break-even, yet the cushion is much thinner.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$77,000	$353,750 cushion	Strong cushion at the current run rate.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 20%.	$77,000	$267,600 cushion	A 20% miss is still absorbable.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed monthly costs rise 15%.	$88,524	$342,226 cushion	Overhead inflation raises the hurdle quickly.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise to 245%.	$82,075	$348,675 cushion	Feed and power pressure trims margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 20%, variable expenses rise to 245%, and fixed costs rise 15%.	$94,354	$250,246 cushion	The cushion narrows, so small misses matter more.

What should a founder verify before signing the site and buying fish for a recirculating aquaculture system?

Founder checklist

Test the site, build, and sales plan against the model before you commit. Year 1 fixed overhead is about $17.8K a month, payroll is $530K a year, and the Month 12 cash trough is about $6.1M, so those numbers need real support before you spend.

1Utility load24/7 load

Confirm the site can run electricity, water filtration, oxygenation, cold storage, and backup power at full load before you sign the lease.

2Water controlMonth 1

Verify water source, discharge rules, testing cadence, and certification needs so the launch does not slip after the facility is committed.

3Core build$6.2M capex

Price the grow-out tanks, biofiltration and oxygenation, automated feeding, sensors, processing, cold storage, solar, and hatchery units before launch.

4Margin stack80.5% CM

Year 1 feed, power, packaging, and shipping take 19.5% of revenue, so the rest must cover payroll and fixed costs or break-even slips.

5Team ramp$530K/yr

Verify the first-year team can cover launch output at $530K in payroll and keep feed, juvenile, oxygen, filtration, lab, maintenance, cold-chain, and packaging vendors lined up.

6Sales lock$6.1M cash

Lock buyers for whole fish, fillets, smoked product, and juveniles before you scale inventory, and fund the Month 12 cash trough of about $6.1M so the launch stays alive.