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Refrigerated Trucking Break-Even Revenue: About $207K Per Month


You need about $207,200 in monthly refrigerated trucking revenue to cover the Year 1 fixed cost base under the listed assumptions Here’s the quick math: $165,750 of fixed monthly overhead and payroll divided by an 800% contribution margin equals $207,188 The Year 1 plan averages $493,333/month of revenue, so the line-item cushion above break-even is about $286,000/month before other model timing items The model shows break-even in Month 1, Year 1 EBITDA of $2519 million, and minimum cash of -$1307 million in Month 6 because fleet and systems capital spend still hit early



Fixed costs $43.0K/mo Base overhead
Contribution margin 80% After variable costs
Break-even revenue $53.8K Monthly target
Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for temperature-controlled trucking.

Money available to cover fixed costs $1,033,904 $1,245,667 revenue - $211,763 variable expenses
Margin ratio
83%
Covers fixed costs
Yes
Break-even chart Revenue Total costs
Plan Break-even $0 $0

Which refrigerated transport expenses stay fixed, and which move with miles, loads, and fleet size?

Cost classification

Break-even is reliable only if fuel, trip expense, maintenance, payroll, and monitoring sit in the right buckets. Misclassifying mile-driven expenses as fixed can make Month 1 break-even look safer than it is.

Expense Cost Break-Even Treatment Common Mistake
Fleet Insurance Premiums Fixed Use $12,500 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60. Tying insurance to freight miles instead of planned coverage.
Terminal and Yard Lease Fixed Use $15,000 per month in fixed overhead within the current operating range. Spreading yard rent across miles and hiding idle capacity.
Fuel and Energy Surcharge Costs Variable Apply 8.5% of first-year revenue, then use the model’s declining annual rates. Treating fuel as fixed when it moves with miles and routes.
Driver Per Diem and Trip Expenses Variable Apply 4.0% of first-year revenue, then adjust by the annual forecast rate. Rolling trip spend into payroll and overstating route margin.
Fleet Maintenance and Tire Fund Variable Apply 5.5% of first-year revenue because wear rises with miles and utilization. Treating reefer maintenance as fixed and missing mileage-driven repairs.
CDL Class A Reefer Drivers Payroll Semi-fixed Add driver payroll in staffing steps: 12.0 full-time equivalents in first year, then 18.0 in second year. Modeling every driver dollar as per-mile variable spend.
Dispatch and 24-7 Monitoring Staff Semi-fixed Scale staffing by fleet coverage needs, from 3.0 full-time equivalents in first year to 4.0 in second year. Keeping dispatch flat while trucks and service hours grow.
Telematics and IoT SaaS Fees Semi-variable Start with the $3,200 monthly platform charge, then track truck-count-driven monitoring support separately. Leaving sensor support out of per-truck break-even math.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to a full refrigerated trucking build?

Scenario table

Lean launch keeps fixed cost light, while the base and full cases add drivers and support staff, so break-even revenue rises even as CM ratio (contribution margin ratio) improves from 80.0% to 84.0%.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with lane mix, empty miles, fuel, and driver availability.
Scenario Monthly Revenue Variable Costs Fixed Costs CM Ratio Operating Profit Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case $493,333 $98,667 $165,750 80.0% $228,917 About $207k/month covers fixed cost, so the launch plan has a solid cushion.
Base route-density case $1,245,667 $224,220 $281,583 82.0% $739,864 About $343k/month covers fixed cost, so the base plan stays well above break-even.
Full lane-depth case $2,196,000 $351,360 $458,000 84.0% $1,386,640 About $545k/month covers fixed cost, so the full build keeps a wide break-even cushion.

What pushes this refrigerated freight plan below break-even?

Stress test

The base plan has a solid cushion, but revenue slips and cost creep hit break-even fast. A 15% revenue drop, a 10% fixed-cost jump, or a 5-point load-cost rise each tighten the buffer; all three together still leave about $176,000 of cushion.

Stress Case Changed Assumption Break-Even Revenue Revenue Gap Risk Signal
Current plan No change to revenue, load costs, or fixed overhead. $207,188 $286,145 cushion Strong monthly buffer, so volume loss is the first real threat.
Revenue shortfall Monthly revenue falls 15% to about $419,333. $207,188 $212,145 cushion Still above break-even, but empty miles would eat the cushion.
Fixed-cost increase Fixed spend rises 10% to about $182,325 a month. $227,906 $265,427 cushion Insurance, rent, or staffing creep raises the break-even line fast.
Margin pressure Variable load costs rise 5 points to 25% of revenue. $221,000 $272,333 cushion Fuel above 85% of plan or maintenance above 55% tightens margin.
Combined pressure Revenue drops 15%, fixed spend rises 10%, and load costs rise 5 points. $243,100 $176,233 cushion All three shocks hit together, so late reefer repairs become a real warning sign.

What should a refrigerated transport founder verify before signing truck leases and adding fleet capacity?

Founder checklist

Before you add trucks or sign leases, test the plan against booked miles, fixed burn, and staffing. If Year 1 demand does not cover the 850,000 contracted miles, 150,000 spot miles, and the Month 6 cash dip, the break-even case is too thin.

1Booked miles850k + 150k

Verify Year 1 demand really includes 850,000 contracted freight miles and 150,000 spot miles before you add tractors, because spot freight should fill gaps, not carry the base plan.

2Fixed burn$43.0K/mo

Check that monthly fixed costs stay near the model’s $43,000 from insurance, telematics, yard, compliance, marketing, and office rent, since that is the load break-even must cover every month.

3Rate card80% CM

Confirm pricing at $4.20 contracted miles, $5.50 spot miles, $285,000 dedicated units, and $250 accessorial events, because Year 1 variable costs still leave about 80% contribution before fixed overhead.

4Fleet cover5 units

Make sure all 5 dedicated fleet units have paid assignments, or the truck and trailer spend turns into idle capacity instead of revenue.

5Staffing15 FTE

Hire against 12 CDL Class A reefer drivers plus 3 dispatch and monitoring staff in Year 1, so the launch schedule has enough coverage to move temperature-controlled freight safely.

6Cash trough-$1.307M

Plan for the Month 6 minimum cash of negative $1.307 million, because the model still needs an 18-month payback even after breakeven starts in Month 1.