REC Marketplace Break-Even: About $125K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $106.2K/mo Year 1 floor

Contribution margin 85% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $124.9K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 26 Model crossover

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs shape break-even for a renewable energy certificate trading platform.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash available to cover direct costs and overhead. $ Low volume High volume Variable expenses These costs move with trading volume, like processing, verification, hosting, and support. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $174,000 $200,000 revenue - $26,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

87%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs These are the monthly costs the business pays even before volume grows. $ Tight overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales in a REC trading marketplace?

Cost classification

Break-even is Month 26, so cost labels matter. Treat fixed overhead as the monthly floor, and treat registry, processing, hosting, and support as volume-linked items that rise as trades and users grow.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office rent, $5,000/month	Fixed	Include in the monthly break-even floor from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading it across trades and hiding the real cash floor.
General software, $1,500/month	Fixed	Model as recurring overhead that must be covered before profit.	Treating core software as usage-based when the plan shows a flat monthly amount.
Legal and accounting services, $2,000/month	Fixed	Keep in fixed operating expense for compliance-heavy marketplace operations.	Removing it after launch even though it runs through Month 60.
Transaction processing fees, 3.0% of revenue in the first year	Variable	Apply as a direct reduction to contribution margin on each trade.	Using gross revenue for break-even and forgetting per-trade processing drag.
REC registry integration and verification costs, 4.0% of revenue in the first year	Variable	Deduct from each transaction because verification load moves with trade volume.	Treating registry and verification work as fixed platform overhead.
Cloud hosting and infrastructure, 5.0% of revenue in the first year	Semi-variable	Model as partly usage-linked since traffic, data storage, and transaction activity rise with scale.	Locking hosting at one flat amount while marketplace activity grows.
Customer support, 3.0% of revenue in the first year	Semi-variable	Link to active buyers, sellers, and trade volume, not just headcount.	Treating support load as fixed and missing onboarding and trade-resolution work.
Payroll, about $64,583/month in the first year	Semi-fixed	Hold as a step expense that rises when capacity, compliance, engineering, and customer success staffing expand.	Scaling payroll smoothly with revenue instead of adding people in hiring steps.

How does break-even change from a lean pilot to a full REC marketplace?

Scenario table

Higher staffing and acquisition spend push break-even up fast. In this model, the needed monthly revenue rises from about $90.6k in lean mode to $124.9k at launch and $207.5k at full scale.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even will move with deal mix, CAC, and fee rates.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean pilot setup	$90,568	$13,585	$76,983	85.0%	$0	Covers pilot overhead, but little room for CAC drift.
Base launch setup	$124,882	$18,732	$106,150	85.0%	$0	Fits launch spend if acquisition budgets stay on plan.
Full scaled marketplace	$207,505	$25,938	$181,567	87.5%	$0	Needs scale, and the cushion stays thin near break-even.

What pushes the REC trading plan off break-even?

Stress test

The plan sits right on the line at $124,882 a month, so a 20% revenue drop or any fee creep can push it negative fast. Fixed costs are the other pressure point: a 10% rise adds about $12,489 to break-even.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$124,882	$0 gap	The model is exactly at break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 20% below plan.	$124,882	$21,229 gap	Slower buyer deal flow can turn the month negative.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to $116,765.	$137,371	$12,489 gap	More overhead means you need more fee volume to stay even.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin drops from 85% to 80%.	$132,688	$7,806 gap	Higher registry verification burden or lower commission rates squeeze the math.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls to $99,906, fixed costs rise to $116,765, and margin drops to 80%.	$145,956	$36,840 gap	Slower volume and heavier support load can break the month fast.

What should you verify before you commit to major spend on a REC trading platform?

Founder checklist

Before you scale headcount or marketing, prove both sides of the REC marketplace can clear the model’s break-even line. Spend only after seller and buyer pipelines, registry access, pricing, and settlement all work at the stated CACs.

1Seller Pipeline$150K

Verify seller supply before spending the Year 1 seller budget, because thin supply weakens listings and slows commission revenue.

2Buyer Pipeline$200K

Verify buyer demand before spending the Year 1 buyer budget, because the platform needs real demand to move certificates and close trades.

3CAC Check$1.5K/$1.0K

Confirm seller CAC stays near $1,500 and buyer CAC near $1,000, or acquisition spend will outrun early revenue.

4Registry FlowVerified

Validate registry access and REC verification end to end before pushing volume, because broken verification blocks settlement.

5Fee Test$150-$350/mo

Test whether sellers and buyers will pay the stated subscription range, plus the $50 fixed commission and 1.5% variable fee.

6Cash Cushion-$792K

Delay added hiring until monthly revenue clears the $124,882 break-even line; the model still bottoms at -$792K in Month 26.