Rotisserie Break-Even Analysis: About $258K Monthly Sales

Fixed costs $20.9K/mo Base monthly load

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $25.8K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 14 Model breakeven

Break-even calculator

Tests whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and the fixed monthly cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Higher sales create more margin to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct costs like ingredients, packaging, and payment fees move with sales. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $22,700 $28,000 revenue - $5,300 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Rent, payroll, and overhead are the monthly costs break-even must cover. $ Lower fixed Higher fixed

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses stay fixed and which move with sales for this chicken shop?

Cost classification

Break-even is only reliable when fixed bills, usage-based bills, and sales-linked costs are separated. If food, packaging, fees, or utility usage are treated as fixed, the model will overstate margin as orders grow.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Use $3,500 per month as a baseline hurdle before contribution margin covers anything else.	Underpricing menu items in a weak-traffic site.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with $800 per month, then let oven, refrigeration, and prep usage rise with volume.	Treating all utility usage as fixed.
Meat and ingredients	Variable	Model at 15.0% of first-year sales, falling to 13.0% by Year 5.	Treating food spend as a flat monthly bill.
Packaging & Supplies	Variable	Apply 2.0% of first-year sales, improving to 1.5% by Year 5.	Ignoring takeout packaging in per-order margin.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Use 1.5% of first-year sales, then 1.2% by Year 5.	Forgetting card fees when testing break-even sales.
Delivery Platform Fees	Variable	Apply 0.5% of first-year sales, rising to 0.8% from Year 4 onward.	Blending delivery commissions into general overhead.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	First-year staffed wages are $181,000 per year, or about $15,083 per month, before taxes and benefits.	Treating every labor dollar as order-level variable spend.
Marketing & Promotion Fixed	Semi-fixed	Start with $500 per month, then review in steps as traffic targets rise.	Cutting spend without checking lost cover volume.

How does break-even shift across lean, base, and full rotisserie formats?

Scenario table

The lean case is close to break-even because fixed labor load eats most margin. By base and full volume, revenue grows faster than fixed cost, so the cushion gets wider and profit turns more durable.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will vary with traffic, menu mix, and labor.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean rotisserie counter case	$279k	$53k	$209k	81%	$17k	Slightly above break-even, so small traffic dips matter.
Base rotisserie counter case	$486k	$89k	$266k	81.6%	$131k	Comfortable cushion, but labor still drives risk.
Full volume plus catering case	$757k	$135k	$287k	82.2%	$335k	Strong cushion and best fit for higher-volume service.

What pushes this rotisserie below break-even?

Stress test

Year 1 has only a small cushion, so a modest drop in traffic or a jump in poultry, packaging, or delivery costs can flip the plan to a loss. Fixed rent and utilities also matter because they sit on top of a tight margin base.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change from the Year 1 plan.	$258,000	$21,000 cushion	The base case clears break-even, but not by much.
Revenue shortfall	Sales fall 10% to about $251,000.	$258,000	$7,000 gap	A small traffic miss creates an operating loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10%.	$284,000	$5,000 gap	Higher rent or utilities can erase the cushion.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 19% to 24% of revenue.	$275,000	$4,000 cushion	Poultry, packaging waste, and delivery fees tighten margin fast.
Combined pressure	Sales fall 10%, variable expenses rise to 24%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$302,000	$51,000 gap	Low lunch traffic plus cost inflation puts the plan well underwater.

Can this rotisserie site clear break-even before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Before you sign the lease, test whether this site can support the $258k monthly break-even target. The model only works if traffic, AOV, food cost, labor, and cash hold together through Month 14 and beyond.

1Traffic Test495/week

Test whether opening traffic can hit 495 covers a week, because falling short pushes the Month 14 break-even point back.

2Rent Fit$3.5k/mo

Keep rent at $3,500 a month so the fixed load stays inside the traffic test and does not squeeze margin.

3AOV Mix$13.02

Verify the weekday and weekend mix really averages about $13.02 per cover, since lower baskets mean less revenue from the same seats.

4Food Cost17.0%

Hold meat, packaging, and supplier terms near the modeled 17.0% direct cost, or the margin needed for break-even will shrink.

5Peak Ops90/110/100

Size the spit, prep space, and schedules for Friday 90, Saturday 110, and Sunday 100 covers, and keep Year 1 payroll near $15.1k a month.

6Cash Buffer$806k

Keep at least the $806k minimum cash cushion through Month 15, because slow onboarding or weak starts make the 32-month payback harder to reach.