Sex Toys Break-Even Analysis: $23K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $4.2K/mo Core overhead

Contribution margin 85% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $4.9K/mo Revenue at zero EBITDA

Break-even timing Month 15 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs shape break-even for an adult products business.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash base that has to cover variable and fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct product, packaging, payment, and shipping costs rise as sales rise. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $23,800 $28,000 revenue - $4,200 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead contribution margin must cover. $ Lean base Heavy base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, and which move with sales for this adult products store?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if fixed overhead stays fixed and sales-driven expenses scale with orders. If product acquisition, card fees, or shipping sit in overhead, Month 15 break-even can look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Website Hosting & Software Subscriptions	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month in fixed overhead for the relevant planning range.	Scaling hosting with every order instead of holding the base platform spend steady.
Legal & Compliance Retainer	Fixed	Include $800 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Dropping compliance from break-even because it doesn’t touch each order.
Product Acquisition	Variable	Deduct 8% of revenue in the first year before calculating contribution margin.	Putting inventory replenishment into fixed overhead and overstating margin per sale.
Packaging Materials	Variable	Deduct 1% of revenue in the first year as an order-linked expense.	Treating packaging as office supplies instead of a per-sale expense.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Deduct 2% of revenue in the first year as card and checkout volume rises.	Putting card fees into fixed overhead, which inflates contribution margin.
Fulfillment & Shipping Costs	Variable	Deduct 4% of revenue in the first year because fulfillment moves with order volume.	Modeling shipping as fixed, then missing the cash drain from higher sales.
Online Marketing	Semi-variable	Model the first-year $50,000 budget, then flex new-customer volume using $25 CAC.	Treating the full budget as fixed even when paid acquisition can scale up or down.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Hold payroll by staffed role, then step it up as FTEs rise by year.	Spreading future hires evenly across all months instead of adding capacity in steps.

How does break-even change from lean to base to full scale for this adult products store?

Scenario table

As the launch gets bigger, ad spend and staffing push fixed costs up faster than margin improves, so the break-even line rises. The lean case clears the bar at the lowest sales level, while the full case needs the most cushion.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with traffic, staffing pace, and ad costs.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch	$230K	$34.5K	$196K	85%	$0	About 307 monthly orders clear this setup, but the cushion is thin.
Base launch	$359K	$50.6K	$308K	85.9%	$0	About 405 monthly orders clear this setup, and staffing keeps break-even high.
Full-scale launch	$508K	$66.5K	$442K	86.9%	$0	About 496 monthly orders clear this setup, so overhead still drives the sales bar.

What breaks the break-even plan for this adult products business?

Stress test

At the base case, the model needs about $230,000 a month to cover a $196,000 fixed burden at an 85% contribution margin. A 20% sales miss leaves about a $39,000 monthly gap, and fee creep or higher overhead pushes break-even higher.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$230,000	$0 cushion	Keep CAC under $25 and fulfillment near 4%.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly sales land 20% below plan.	$230,000	$39,000 gap	A 20% sales miss turns into a roughly $39,000 monthly hole.
Fixed cost increase	Fixed burden rises 10% to $215,600 a month.	$254,000	$24,000 gap	A 10% overhead bump adds about $24,000 to the monthly hurdle.
Margin pressure	Variable costs rise from 15% to 20% of revenue.	$245,000	$15,000 gap	Payment fees above 2% or deeper discounts push break-even higher fast.
Combined pressure	Fixed burden rises 10% and variable costs rise to 20%.	$269,000	$39,000 gap	Higher fees and overhead together erase the cushion near $269,000.

What should you verify before you buy stock and scale spend?

Founder checklist

You need proof on processor approval, CAC, shipping, and the cash cushion before you load inventory and payroll. The model reaches break-even in Month 15, but Year 1 EBITDA is -$98K, so early spend has to match the assumptions.

1Processor CheckAccepted

Confirm the payment processor will approve these products before any launch spend, because blocked checkout stops the break-even path.

2CAC Proof$25 CAC

Prove paid acquisition can hold near the Year 1 $25 CAC before you commit the $50K marketing budget.

3Compliance Load$800/mo

Keep the legal and compliance retainer in place so the monthly fixed load is real, and skip storefront rent unless revenue can carry a higher base.

4Shipping Rates1% + 4%

Validate discreet packaging and shipping quotes against the 1% packaging and 4% fulfillment assumptions before you scale order volume.

5Stock Risk$20K

Cap the first inventory buy near the $20K launch stock purchase so dead stock does not eat the break-even cushion.

6Cash Runway$784K

Hold enough cash to cover the $69K launch capex package, Year 1 payroll of $11.25K per month, and the $784K minimum cash need by Month 17.