Shipping Company Break-Even Analysis: $608K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $50.7K/mo Payroll plus overhead

Contribution margin 83.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $60.8K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 9 Launch month 9

Break-even calculator

Use this to test whether monthly revenue covers direct costs and fixed overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Use gross monthly revenue from transport work and fees before direct costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Include fuel, carrier payouts, and other costs that rise with volume. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $153,000 $180,000 revenue - $27,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use payroll and overhead that stay on each month. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which shipping company expenses are fixed, variable, semi-variable, or semi-fixed for break-even?

Cost classification

Break-even gets unreliable when fixed overhead, usage fees, and step-up payroll are mixed together. Treat stable monthly bills separately from revenue-linked fees so Month 9 break-even reflects real operating behavior.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent	Fixed	Use $3,500 per month as fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Tying rent to order volume instead of treating it as a monthly hurdle.
Professional Services (Legal & Accounting)	Fixed	Use $1,500 per month as recurring overhead in the break-even base.	Leaving legal and accounting out because they don’t touch shipments directly.
Data Security & Compliance	Fixed	Use $700 per month as fixed platform overhead for the planning range.	Classifying compliance as optional when it runs every month.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Use about $42,292 per month in the first year, then step it up as headcount grows.	Modeling payroll as a percent of sales instead of planned staffing capacity.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 2.5% of revenue in the first year, declining to 2.1% by the fifth year.	Putting payment fees in fixed overhead and overstating contribution margin.
Digital Advertising Spend	Variable	Apply 8.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 6.0% by the fifth year.	Using only the annual marketing budget and missing volume-linked spend.
Software Licensing (Platform Tools)	Variable	Apply 3.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 2.2% by the fifth year.	Treating all software as fixed subscriptions when platform tools scale with usage.
Cloud Hosting & Infrastructure	Semi-variable	Use 3.0% of revenue in the first year, with separate capacity checks as traffic rises.	Ignoring the base platform load and modeling hosting as purely per-order.

How does break-even shift across lean, base, and full shipping scenarios?

Scenario table

Month 9 is the break-even point, with $530,000 minimum cash needed before the model turns. The table shows how lighter route load or fuller utilization changes the monthly cushion around the same $50,742 fixed base.

Planning cases only; actual results will move with route mix, pricing, and load factor.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean route load	$54,692	$9,024	$50,742	83.5%	-$5,074	Below base load, fixed costs stay uncovered.
Base break-even load	$60,769	$10,027	$50,742	83.5%	$0	At break-even, fixed costs are covered.
Full route load	$66,846	$11,029	$50,742	83.5%	$5,075	Above break-even, the extra load adds cushion.

What breaks the break-even plan for this shipping company?

Stress test

This plan is tight: break-even lands at about $60,769 a month, and Month 9 is the cash low point with a $530,000 minimum cash need. A small revenue miss or a 1-point margin slip moves the business off balance fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$60,769	$0 gap	Year 1 EBITDA is -$182,000, so Month 9 is the tight spot.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly freight revenue falls $1,000 below plan.	$60,769	$1,000 gap	A $1,000 miss creates about $835 of operating loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises by $1,000 per month.	$61,967	$1,198 gap	Each extra $1,000 of fixed cost lifts break-even by about $1,198.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin drops by 1 point.	$61,506	$737 gap	A 1-point margin slip adds $737 to the monthly target.
Combined pressure	Monthly revenue falls $1,000 and margin drops by 1 point.	$62,704	$1,935 gap	That mix can push losses past the Month 9 cash low point.

What should you verify before you commit to lease, hires, and route capacity?

Founder checklist

Before you lock in capacity, verify the business can reach about $60.8K in monthly revenue and hold Year 1 variable costs near 16.5% of sales. If it can’t, the Month 9 break-even plan is still a forecast, not a green light.

1Revenue Path$60.8K/mo

Verify repeat orders by shipper type can build this monthly run rate before you sign up for more route capacity.

2Variable Cost16.5%

Verify digital ads, software, processing, and hosting stay near this Year 1 load so each shipment still adds cash to break-even.

3Fixed Load$50.7K/mo

Verify payroll and office overhead stay at this monthly level, because this is the run rate the shipping business has to cover every month.

4Cash Floor$530K

Verify you can fund the Month 9 cash low point and keep the $185K startup spend separate from operating cash.

5CAC Gate$250 / $150

Verify seller and buyer acquisition costs stay near the Year 1 assumptions before you push paid growth, or break-even slips out.

6Hire GateMonth 9

Verify you delay new hires and extra shipment capacity until volume covers fixed payroll, so growth does not outrun cash.