Break-Even Analysis For Shrimp Farming: $82K Monthly Sales

Fixed costs $68.4K/mo fixed base load

Contribution margin 80% after variable costs

Break-even revenue $85.5K/mo monthly target

Break-even timing Month 8 first payoff month

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and fixed monthly costs in shrimp farming.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool available to cover variable costs and fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Use feed, energy, logistics, and other costs that rise with output. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $129,000 $160,000 revenue - $31,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use the monthly cost base the farm must cover before profit starts. $ Tight base Heavy base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which shrimp farm expenses are fixed, and which move with harvest sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if fixed commitments stay separate from revenue-linked expenses. For this shrimp farm, lease, permits, insurance, and baseline staffing set the monthly hurdle before feed, energy, packaging, and sales spend move with harvest revenue.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Lease	Fixed	Include $15,000 per month from Month 1, before stocking or harvest revenue.	Starting lease expense only after production begins.
Biosecurity & Animal Health Supplies	Fixed	Include $2,500 per month as a standing operating requirement.	Treating it as outbreak-only spend.
Permits & Certifications	Fixed	Include $1,000 per month as recurring compliance overhead.	Burying it in startup costs instead of break-even.
Insurance	Fixed	Include $3,000 per month in the fixed monthly hurdle.	Leaving it below the line as a non-operating item.
General Maintenance & Repairs	Semi-fixed	Model the $3,000 monthly baseline, then add repair spikes when equipment intensity rises.	Smoothing all repair spend as a flat percent of sales.
Shrimp Feed	Variable	Apply as a revenue-linked expense: 10.0% in the first year, improving to 8.0% by Year 5.	Using one feed rate even as yield improves.
Energy for RAS	Semi-variable	Model usage-linked energy at 7.0% of revenue in the first year, improving to 5.0% by Year 5.	Treating pumps and climate control as fully fixed.
Wages	Semi-fixed	Use staffing steps: first-year payroll is about $485,000 annually, or about $40,400 monthly, then rises as FTE counts increase.	Scaling payroll as a clean percent of revenue.

How does break-even shift from a lean shrimp farm setup to the base case and the full build?

Scenario table

As production gets denser and mortality falls, revenue and margin rise faster than fixed costs. So break-even moves only a little, while the profit cushion expands fast.

These are planning assumptions based on the model, not guaranteed results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean hatchery start	$1.232M	$246k	$659k	80.0%	$327k	Above break-even, but the cushion is thin.
Base operating case	$3.650M	$642k	$743k	82.4%	$2.265M	Clear surplus over break-even; this is the first strong operating case.
Full-scale farm	$9.208M	$1.381M	$822k	85.0%	$7.006M	Large cushion over break-even; volume now drives the result.

What breaks first if shrimp sales slip, costs rise, or mortality jumps?

Stress test

Here’s the quick math: Year 1 revenue is about $1.232M against an $824k break-even, so you start with a $408k cushion. A 10% revenue miss, higher overhead, or a 1-point margin hit can eat that room fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$824k	$408k cushion	Healthy start, but fixed overhead is the main drag.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 sales revenue falls 10%.	$824k	$285k cushion	A 10% sales miss cuts about $123k from the cushion.
Fixed-cost increase	Monthly overhead rises by $10k.	$974k	$258k cushion	Every extra $10k a month lifts break-even by about $150k a year.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise by 1 percentage point.	$834k	$398k cushion	Feed, energy, logistics, and marketing pressure the margin first.
Combined pressure	Sales fall 10%, overhead rises $10k monthly, and variable expenses rise by 1 point.	$986k	$123k cushion	Mortality above 18%, slower cycles, or lower harvest weight can wipe out most of the cushion.

Can this shrimp farm survive the first stocking cycle before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock in the build until the first cycle clears both operating break-even and the cash trough. This model breaks even in Month 8, but cash drops to about -$9.0M in Month 12, so survival comes down to funding the ramp, not just the P&L.

1Buyer demand$20-$45/kg

Verify buyers will take the full product mix at those prices before you stock, because the first harvest has to move fast enough to turn inventory into cash.

2Fixed load$68.4k/mo

Verify the farm can carry about $68.4k in fixed cost each month from launch, because site overhead and payroll land before the first harvest.

3Gross margin80% CM

Verify the mix still holds roughly 80% contribution margin after feed, energy, logistics, and sales costs, because that margin pays the fixed load.

4Cycle capacity3 cycles

Verify tanks, water quality, salinity, biosecurity, and staffing can support 3 production cycles in the first year with 50,000 purchased juveniles per cycle plus retained hatchery output.

5Cash runway$9.0M trough

Verify you can fund the roughly $9.0M minimum cash trough in Month 12, because the ramp does not stay cash-positive through the build.

6Cold chainPre-harvest

Verify refrigerated storage, ice, packaging, and transport are ready before harvest, because delayed shipment turns sellable shrimp into waste.