Commercial Site Selection Break-Even Analysis: $128K Monthly Target

Fixed costs $83.6K/mo Base overhead + payroll

Contribution margin 73% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $114.5K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 21 Model breakeven

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a commercial site selection service.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that must cover direct costs first, then fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct costs rise with work done, like travel, referral fees, data, and cloud support. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $110,875 $147,833 revenue - $36,958 variable expenses

Margin ratio

75%

Covers fixed costs

$5,917 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead base the contribution margin must pay. $ Lean team Large team

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses stay fixed and which move with sales in a commercial site selection service?

Cost classification

Break-even gets reliable only when fixed overhead, step-up staffing, and revenue-linked delivery spend are kept separate. Here, Month 21 break-even depends on not treating travel, data fees, and referral commissions like stable overhead.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
HQ Office Lease	Fixed	Include $12,000 per month in overhead before profit.	Signing the lease before the client pipeline is proven.
Geospatial Analyst Payroll	Semi-fixed	Add in full-time employee blocks; first year starts with 2.0 FTE at $95,000 salary each.	Hiring ahead of billable utilization.
GIS Software Licenses	Fixed	Cover $4,500 per month before the firm clears break-even.	Treating recurring software as optional.
Data Subscription Fees	Variable	Model as 8% of first-year revenue, reducing contribution margin.	Ignoring usage growth as projects scale.
Project Travel	Variable	Model as 10% of first-year revenue tied to client delivery.	Underpricing multi-market site visits.
Professional Liability Insurance	Fixed	Include $2,500 per month as required overhead coverage.	Leaving insurance out of break-even math.
Marketing Spend	Semi-fixed	Plan $120,000 in the first year to fund client acquisition.	Cutting marketing while still expecting $15,000 CAC.
Referral Commissions	Variable	Model as 5% of revenue, lowering gross contribution.	Counting referred revenue as if it has no selling drag.

How does break-even shift across lean, base, and full service levels?

Scenario table

At $250, $200, and $300 an hour, Year 1 is below break-even, Year 2 reaches Month 21, and Year 5 has a cushion. With $120K, $150K, and $220K marketing budgets against $15K, $14K, and $12.5K CAC, that supports 8, 11, and 18 wins.

Planning assumptions only; actual results can move with deal size, staffing mix, and market demand.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch, Year 1	$71.6K	$19.3K	$102.8K	73%	-$50.6K	Still below break-even; early demand does not cover the cost base.
Base case, Year 2	$147.8K	$37.0K	$116.8K	75%	-$5.9K	Month 21 is the break-even point, so cash stays tight until volume builds.
Full-capacity scale, Year 5	$362.5K	$72.5K	$204.3K	80%	$85.7K	Strong cushion; higher-margin work covers the larger team and overhead.

What breaks the break-even plan for this commercial site selection consulting firm?

Stress test

Year 2 is close enough to break-even that small misses matter. A 10% revenue drop, a 10% fixed-cost jump, or a 5-point margin slide can push the plan into a gap, and the combined case opens about a $212K monthly hole.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$1,387K	$91K cushion	Only a thin cushion at Year 2 revenue.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue runs 10% below Year 2.	$1,387K	$56K gap	Delayed client wins turn the cushion into a loss.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 10%.	$1,525K	$47K gap	Overhead creep closes the cushion fast.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls to 70%.	$1,486K	$8K gap	Travel above 10% of revenue or analyst underuse cuts margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 10%, margin falls to 70%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$1,690K	$212K gap	Small misses stack into a large monthly funding gap.

Can you prove enough signed work before you lock the office lease and hire?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock the office lease or full team until signed work, billing pace, and cash runway line up with Month 21 break-even. The model reaches break-even in Month 21, but cash falls to -$185K in Month 30, so demand has to land early.

1Revenue ramp$114.5K/mo

Verify signed proposals and retainers can reach this monthly run rate before the lease and hires, because Year 1 averages only $71.6K/mo.

2Office lease$12K/mo

Confirm booked work can cover the monthly lease on its own, or the office becomes dead weight before the team is near break-even.

3Contribution margin73% CM

After data, cloud, travel, and referral costs, about 73 cents of each revenue dollar stays to pay payroll and fixed costs, so pricing has to stay above that floor.

4Billable pace45 hrs/mo

Year 1 averages 45 billable hours, meaning paid client hours, per active customer, and payroll is about $715K across six FTE, so hire only when those hours are already sold.

5Cash runwayMonth 21

Keep cash alive through Month 21 break-even and the modeled -$185K low point in Month 30, or the ramp runs out of room before it pays back.

6Acquisition test$15K CAC

With a $120K Year 1 marketing budget, that CAC buys about 8 client wins, so check close rate and monthly billings before you add more spend.