Ski Lodge Break-Even Analysis: $222K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $158K/mo Base month burn

Contribution margin 93% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $170K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Use this to test whether monthly room and extra income cover the lodge's variable and fixed costs.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue This is the cash coming in from rooms, food, spa, events, and other guest sales. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These costs rise with guest volume, like commissions, supplies, and product costs. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $1,498,967 $1,619,967 revenue - $121,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

93%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the lodge has to cover even in a slow month. $ Lower fixed Higher fixed

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which ski lodge expenses are fixed, and which move with occupancy?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense moves the right way in the model. For this lodge, the big risk is treating payroll as fully variable or utilities as fully fixed when occupancy changes.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Property Insurance	Fixed	Use $10,000 per month from Month 1 through Month 60, regardless of room nights sold.	Linking it to occupancy and understating low-season break-even.
Property Taxes	Fixed	Use $18,000 per month as a stable operating expense within the planning range.	Spreading it as a percentage of room revenue.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $25,000 monthly base, then test higher winter usage as occupied rooms rise.	Treating the full bill as fixed during peak ski weeks.
Landscaping & Snow Removal	Semi-variable	Use the $8,000 monthly base, but stress-test heavier snow and guest traffic in high-occupancy months.	Ignoring winter usage swings and service call add-ons.
Salaried Lodge Payroll	Semi-fixed	Use about $95,000 per month in first-year payroll, then step up as supervisor and staff FTEs increase.	Treating all payroll as variable with occupied rooms.
Marketing & Sales Commissions	Variable	Model at the revenue-linked assumption, starting at 6.0% in the first year and falling to 5.0% by the fifth year.	Putting commissions into fixed overhead.
Guest Amenity Supplies	Variable	Model as volume-linked supplies, starting at 2.0% in the first year and easing to 1.8% in later years.	Budgeting the same amenity spend in empty and full months.
Food & Beverage Costs	Variable	Tie to sales volume using the assumption, from 8.0% in the first year to 7.0% in the fifth year.	Using a flat monthly amount instead of a sales-linked input.

How do lean, base, and full ski lodge cases change break-even?

Scenario table

Higher occupancy and ADR push revenue up faster than variable cost, so break-even gets easier from lean to full. Year 1 already clears break-even, and the cushion widens in Years 3 and 5.

Planning cases only. These figures exclude debt principal, taxes, and one-time capex.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean lodge case	$1.33M	$232K	$183K	82.5%	$911K	Above break-even, but the cushion is the thinnest here.
Base lodge case	$1.82M	$292K	$196K	83.9%	$1.33M	Comfortably above break-even, with better fixed-cost absorption.
Full lodge case	$2.09M	$314K	$209K	85.0%	$1.57M	Best cushion; break-even risk is low if demand holds.

What breaks the ski lodge break-even plan?

Stress test

Year 1 has a wide cushion, but it depends on steady room demand and tight cost control. If snowfall demand softens or payroll and utilities climb, break-even moves up fast and the buffer shrinks.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$222,000	$1,104,000 cushion	Year 1 revenue sits well above break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 revenue falls 80% from plan.	$222,000	$43,000 cushion	Weak bookings leave little room before loss.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed monthly costs rise 15% to $210,450.	$255,000	$1,071,000 cushion	Payroll, utilities, and insurance push the hurdle higher.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls to 75.0%.	$244,000	$1,082,000 cushion	Lower rates or heavier commissions cut coverage.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 80%, fixed costs rise 15%, and margin drops to 75.0%.	$281,000	$42,000 gap	That mix can flip monthly profit to loss.

What should a ski lodge founder verify before signing the lease and hiring for winter?

Founder checklist

Confirm the lodge can sell enough room nights, hold Year 1 rates, and carry about $183K a month in fixed cost before you commit. If the $5.95M build and the Month 4 cash gap are not covered, break-even is too fragile.

1Demand proof303 room nights/mo

Verify monthly booking demand can cover 303 room nights, because that is the first sign the lease can support break-even.

2Occupancy test58% Y1

Check that each room class can hit 58% occupancy in Year 1, or the lodge will miss the fill rate needed to cover fixed cost.

3Rate mix$500-$1,800 ADR

Test whether midweek and weekend pricing can stay inside the Year 1 ADR band, since weak rates will squeeze room revenue fast.

4ContributionY1 EBITDA $10.9M

Verify the revenue mix clears variable costs and still leaves the modeled Year 1 EBITDA, so fixed costs have room to land.

5Fixed load$183K/mo

Confirm the opening base can carry about $183K a month, made up of $88K in overhead and $95K in Year 1 payroll.

6Launch cash$5.95M + Month 4

Fund the full $5.95M build and keep reserve cash for the $67K Month 4 gap while reservation, insurance, snow removal, maintenance, housekeeping, guest services, F&B, and spa staffing come online before winter.