Small Brewery Break-Even Analysis: $34K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $12.7K/mo Overhead only

Contribution margin 88% After variable COGS

Break-even revenue $14.4K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 First positive month

Break-even calculator

Test monthly brewery sales against direct brewing costs and the fixed overhead the business has to cover.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Taproom sales and packaged beer revenue set the margin available to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct brewing inputs, packaging, and merch costs rise as sales rise. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $51,283 $58,583 revenue - $7,300 variable expenses

Margin ratio

88%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Lease, payroll, utilities, and admin costs must be covered each month. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which brewery expenses are fixed and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if rent, inputs, and payroll sit in the right buckets. Here, the $7,500 lease stays fixed, while brewing inputs move with pints, flights, cans, growlers, and shirts sold.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Brewery and Taproom Lease	Fixed	Use $7,500 per month as baseline overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating rent as volume-linked and understating slow-month break-even.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $1,800 monthly base, then watch for overages as brewing volume rises.	Modeling utilities as fully fixed when production can drive usage higher.
Beer Ingredients and Packaging	Variable	Apply malt, hops, yeast, water treatment, cans, lids, labels, and sanitizer against unit sales.	Using one flat margin and missing product-level input differences.
Branded Shirt Inputs	Variable	Tie blank shirts, screen printing, tagging, design allocation, and bags to shirts sold.	Counting merchandise revenue without the direct shirt input burden.
Head Brewer, Taproom Manager, and Taproom Staff	Semi-fixed	Model salaries as committed payroll, with FTE increases by year as staffing scales.	Calling all wages variable and overstating margin at low sales volume.
Marketing and Advertising	Fixed	Carry $1,500 per month in operating overhead unless the plan changes.	Dropping marketing below the line and making break-even look too easy.
Insurance, Permits, Accounting, and Software	Fixed	Include $1,850 per month for recurring insurance, renewals, professional services, and systems.	Forgetting small fixed bills that add up every month.

How does break-even shift as the brewery moves from lean to base to full scale?

Scenario table

Higher sales lift the cushion, but payroll and taproom overhead rise too. Here’s the quick math: the lean case stays close to break-even, while the base and full cases generate steadier monthly profit.

Planning assumptions only; results will move with channel mix, labor, and demand.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean taproom launch	$31,375	$3,868	$29,817	87.7%	-$2,310	Still slightly below break-even; a small lift in sales or lower payroll would close the gap.
Base brewery build	$58,583	$7,300	$41,150	87.5%	$10,133	Clear monthly cushion; this is the first profitable case with room above break-even.
Full-scale brewery	$85,500	$10,643	$44,317	87.5%	$30,540	Strong break-even cushion; higher volume more than absorbs the added fixed load.

What breaks the brewery’s break-even plan if sales slip or costs rise?

Stress test

The first-year plan is already tight: monthly revenue is $31,375 against a $34,010 break-even point, so there’s a $2,635 gap. The biggest risks are weaker taproom traffic, can packaging overruns, and adding staff before sales catch up.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$34,010	$2,635 gap	Already below break-even, so the cushion is thin.
Revenue shortfall	Cut taproom pints, flights, cans, growlers, and merchandise volume by 10%.	$34,010	$5,773 gap	Fewer visits push the plan deeper underwater fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Raise monthly fixed costs 10% across lease, payroll, utilities, marketing, insurance, permits, accounting, and software.	$37,411	$6,036 gap	Staffing and overhead creep delay break-even.
Margin pressure	Increase the listed COGS stack 20% across malt, hops, yeast, cans, and labels.	$35,000	$3,625 gap	Packaging and ingredient overruns eat the cushion.
Combined pressure	Cut sales 10%, raise fixed costs 10%, and increase COGS 20%.	$38,500	$10,262 gap	Slow traffic plus cost creep creates a real cash strain.

Can this brewery clear break-even before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Treat the lease, build-out, and first hires as a break-even test, not a launch bet. If the $34,010 target and $1.199M minimum cash do not hold together, wait.

1Lease fit$7,500/mo

Confirm the rent still fits the $34,010 break-even target before you lock the space.

2Fixed load$29.8K/mo

Verify the opening fixed cost stack, including $206K of Year 1 payroll, can be covered by steady sales.

3Beer margin10-18% COGS

Check that pints, flights, cans, growlers, and shirts stay inside the listed cost bands, or break-even slips fast.

4Staff rampYear 2

Add the assistant brewer only when volume supports the FTE step-up, and hold the sales role until Year 3.

5Cash reserve$1.199M

Keep at least the model’s minimum cash on hand at Month 1 so the $510K build and early burn do not choke launch.

6Opening orders40.5K units

Place first ingredient and packaging orders against Year 1 demand of 30,000 pints, 5,000 flights, 3,000 cans, 2,000 growlers, and 500 shirts.