Soft Drink Manufacturing Break-Even: About $42k Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $34.1K/mo Payroll and overhead

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $41.9K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs compare with break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in each month before direct costs and overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise as you sell more soda. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $139,300 $167,500 revenue - $28,200 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that margin has to cover. $ Slim base Heavy base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which soft drink manufacturing expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if unit inputs, revenue-linked spend, fixed overhead, and staffing steps are split correctly. Packaging costs look small, but payroll can still drive the break-even point.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Flavor Concentrate	Variable	Use $0.10 per bottle in unit contribution margin.	Blending it into overhead and hiding true bottle margin.
Glass Bottle	Variable	Use $0.12 per bottle because it rises with units produced.	Ignoring bottle loss, which can understate unit input spend.
Co-packer Production Fee	Variable	Use $0.08 per bottle as direct production throughput expense.	Treating it as fixed when every run adds fees.
Shipping & Logistics	Semi-variable	Model at 2.5% of first-year revenue, then lower as volume improves.	Assuming freight scales perfectly with sales every month.
Production Facility Utilities	Semi-variable	Use 0.3% of revenue for production usage on top of base utilities.	Mixing production usage with the fixed $1,200 base utility bill.
Quality Control Testing	Semi-variable	Use 0.2% of revenue because testing rises with production activity.	Leaving testing out until failed batches hit cash.
Office Rent	Fixed	Use $3,000 per month as overhead to cover before profit.	Spreading rent per bottle and missing monthly cash pressure.
Production Line Operator Staffing	Semi-fixed	Model staffing in steps as production grows from 1.0 to 3.0 FTE.	Focusing on packaging cents while payroll sets the real capacity floor.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch to base and full scale?

Scenario table

Break-even gets easier as volume rises because fixed payroll and plant overhead stay close to flat while each case carries more contribution. The lean case is tight; the base and full cases build a wider cushion.

Planning case figures are assumptions for comparison, not guarantees; price, mix, and plant uptime can move break-even fast.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$67.7k	$13.0k	$34.1k	80.9%	$197k	Near break-even; a small dip in sales can erase the cushion.
Base ramp case	$167.5k	$29.7k	$44.6k	82.3%	$1.015M	Comfortable cushion; overhead is spread across enough cases.
Full scale case	$359.4k	$58.8k	$49.3k	83.6%	$2.861M	Strong cushion; higher volume absorbs payroll and plant overhead best.

What pushes this soft drink plant past break-even?

Stress test

Year 1 has room, but the cushion is not huge. Revenue can fall, or bottles, freight, and overhead can rise, and the plan only stays safe if distributor reorders stay steady.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change; base Year 1 monthly revenue is about $67,700.	$42,100	$25,600 cushion	Works if distributor reorders stay steady.
Revenue shortfall	Sales run 20% below plan at about $54,200 a month.	$42,100	$12,100 cushion	Slow reorders still leave room, but less of it.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead rises 15% to about $39,200 a month.	$48,400	$19,300 cushion	Hiring ahead of volume can tighten the plan fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expense rises 5 points, cutting contribution margin to about 75.9%.	$44,900	$22,800 cushion	Glass bottle and freight inflation push break-even up.
Combined pressure	Sales drop 20%, fixed overhead rises 15%, and variable expense rises 5 points.	$51,600	$2,600 cushion	Almost no room for a further slip.

Should you sign the bottling line before you prove demand, margin, and cash?

Founder checklist

Only if you can prove Year 1 demand, carry the $34.1K monthly fixed load, and fund the $410,000 capex plus the $1.038 million cash trough in Month 8. The model hits break-even in Month 2, so weak launch execution shows up fast.

1Demand Proof250K units

Verify signed or testable orders for the full 250,000 Year 1 units, because break-even only works if the launch volume is real.

2Fixed Load$34.1K/mo

Check the full monthly burn, including payroll and base overhead, because Year 1 fixed costs already sit near $34.1K and still need insurance, utilities, storage, and freight lanes ready before launch.

3Unit Margin$2.66/unit

At $3.25 a bottle, each unit keeps about $2.66 after the $0.43 direct inputs and the 5% shipping plus digital load, so discounting would hit payback fast.

4Capacity RampMonth 2

Run a throughput test against Month 2 break-even and the six planned roles, because hiring ahead of line output just raises burn.

5Supply Lock5 inputs

Lock the bottle, cap, label, concentrate, and sweetener supply before launch spend, because one missing input can stop production even when demand is there.

6Cash Buffer$1.038M

Hold liquidity through the $1.038 million cash trough in Month 8, because the $410,000 capex plan lands early and cash stress shows up before scale does.