Specialty Coffee Roasting Break-Even: About $234K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $5.8K Monthly base

Contribution margin 80.1% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $7.2K Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 Model timing

Break-even calculator

Use this to test whether monthly revenue covers direct roasting costs and the fixed cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue drives the margin available to cover fixed costs. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses Direct costs rise with each roast, pack, and ship cycle. $ Lower direct Higher direct

Money available to cover fixed costs $38,578 $43,250 revenue - $4,672 variable expenses

Margin ratio

89%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base break-even must cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which coffee roasting expenses are fixed, and which move with sales volume?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense behaves the way the model says it behaves. Treat unit inputs like beans as variable, lease as fixed, and fulfillment labor as Semi-fixed because staffing rises in steps.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Green Beans	Variable	Use $0.80 to $1.50 per unit based on roast type.	Averaging premium and wholesale beans too early.
Coffee Bag & Label	Variable	Use $0.40 to $0.75 per unit sold.	Treating packaging as fixed because it is bought in bulk.
Shipping Materials	Variable	Use $0.20 to $0.30 per unit shipped.	Leaving cartons and inserts out of unit margin.
Roastery Energy	Variable	Apply 0.4% to 0.6% of revenue by roast line.	Blending it with the $800 monthly utilities line.
Marketing & Sales Commissions	Variable	Apply 6.0% of revenue in the first year.	Modeling commissions as a flat monthly budget.
Fulfillment Carrier Fees	Variable	Apply 3.0% of revenue in the first year.	Using revenue break-even without delivery fees.
Roastery Facility Lease	Fixed	Include $3,500 per month in fixed overhead.	Spreading rent across units and hiding capacity risk.
Fulfillment Assistant Labor	Semi-fixed	Model staffing in steps from 0.5 FTE in Year 1 to 2.0 FTE in Year 5.	Scaling labor perfectly with each extra bag sold.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch to the base mix and a full roastery build?

Scenario table

Contribution margin (CM) widens as wholesale volume grows, so break-even gets easier in the base and full cases. The base mix is the cleanest balance between revenue cushion, staffing steps, and fixed overhead.

Planning assumptions only, not guarantees; actual break-even will move with mix, staffing, and overhead.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch mix	$43.3K	$8.7K	$18.7K	80.0%	$15.9K	Clears break-even, but lean wholesale volume leaves less cushion.
Base Year 3 mix	$99.0K	$18.0K	$28.7K	81.9%	$52.4K	Best balance: wholesale volume helps cover staffing and packaging load.
Full Year 5 mix	$193.0K	$31.3K	$32.1K	83.8%	$129.6K	Widest cushion, if facility overhead and headcount scale in step.

What breaks the break-even plan if coffee sales slip or costs rise?

Stress test

The base plan has about $159K of monthly cushion, so it can absorb a fair miss. The weak spots are slower wholesale orders, higher green bean and packaging costs, early labor hires, and freight running above the Year 1 assumption.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$233K	$159K cushion	Healthy buffer if freight and labor stay on plan.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue lands 20% below plan.	$233K	$90K cushion	Wholesale order delays can still cut into headroom.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead and payroll rise 15%.	$268K	$131K cushion	Starting labor or lease costs too early tightens room fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 points, cutting margin to 75.1%.	$248K	$138K cushion	Green bean price increases and packaging overruns hit profit first.
Combined pressure	Revenue is 20% below plan, margin drops 5 points, and fixed costs rise 15%.	$287K	$45K cushion	A slower ramp plus input inflation leaves little room for error.

Will this roastery clear break-even before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Don't sign the lease or buy the roaster until demand can support at least $234K in monthly break-even revenue. Year 1 needs 28,000 units and $519K in revenue, so the mix has to hit volume, not just look good.

1Demand Proof$234K/mo

Verify forecast sales can cover the monthly break-even bar, because Year 1 only works if 28,000 units and $519K in revenue actually show up.

2Fixed Load$5.8K/mo

Keep lease, utilities, insurance, software, accounting, and web costs near $5.8K a month, or the break-even target climbs fast.

3Unit Margin89% CM

Check that blended contribution margin stays near 89% after beans, packaging, energy, and carrier fees, because that margin funds payroll.

4Wholesale Mix10K / $140K

Verify the wholesale dark roast line really reaches 10,000 units and $140K in Year 1, since it is the lowest-priced item at $14 a unit.

5Cash Cushion$1.128M

Hold enough cash to survive the Month 2 low point, because early capex totals $175K and the model still needs room to breathe.

6Launch GateMonth 2

Delay ramp-up until permits, food safety, quality control sampling, storage, and production capacity are proven, and watch payroll rise from $155K to $315K as you add roles.