Specialty Donut Shop Break-Even Analysis: $12K Monthly Sales

Fixed costs $1.1K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 82% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $1.3K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 4 Model breakeven

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed monthly costs against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that pays variable costs and then fixed overhead. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses Use direct costs that rise with each dollar of donut sales. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $35,600 $43,000 revenue - $7,400 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead contribution margin has to cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which donut shop expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets shaky when fixed bills, sales-linked items, and step-up labor are lumped together. Use the listed monthly charges, tie variable items to sales, and don’t add storefront rent because the assumptions don’t provide it.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Food Beverage Costs	Variable	Treat as 14.0% of sales in the first year, declining to 12.0% by Year 5.	Using a flat dollar amount instead of tying ingredients to sales volume.
Packaging Supplies	Variable	Treat as 1.0% of sales in the first year, declining to 0.8% by Year 5.	Forgetting that boxes, bags, and napkins rise with order count.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Treat as 2.0% of sales in the first year, declining to 1.8% by Year 5.	Modeling card fees as fixed, which overstates margin at higher sales.
Marketing Event Fees	Variable	Treat as 1.0% of sales in the first year, declining to 0.8% by Year 5.	Spreading event spend evenly when it should follow event-driven sales.
Insurance	Fixed	Use $280 per month from vehicle insurance and general liability insurance.	Scaling insurance with sales instead of keeping it fixed in the planning range.
Commissary Parking Fees	Fixed	Use $450 per month as the facility-type fee provided in the model.	Adding separate storefront rent when no rent line is provided.
Service Staff and Part-time Event Staff	Semi-variable	Add labor as volume requires: service staff starts in Year 2; event staff starts in Year 3.	Treating all added labor as fixed from Month 1.
Utilities	Semi-fixed	Start with the listed $80 per month, then revisit when production days or equipment use step up.	Leaving utilities flat after operating scale changes.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to a full-service donut shop?

Scenario table

Lean launch keeps fixed cost risk lower, so break-even sits near $121K in monthly revenue. The base and full setups add labor and overhead, but they also bring higher sales and a better cost mix, which widens the cushion.

Planning figures only; actual results will move with traffic, labor use, and product mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch donut shop	$200K	$36K	$99K	82.0%	$65K	Positive cushion, but sales still need to stay above $121K.
Base donut shop	$413K	$71K	$141K	82.8%	$201K	Healthy cushion, and break-even stays well below the run rate.
Full-service donut shop	$1.04M	$160K	$198K	84.6%	$680K	Strong cushion, so capacity planning matters more than survival.

What breaks first in the specialty donut shop break-even plan?

Stress test

Year 1 clears break-even, but the cushion gets thin fast if weekday traffic softens or food, packaging, and labor costs rise. The main break point is when lower sales hit at the same time as higher fixed staffing.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$121,000	$79,000 cushion	Base plan clears break-even with room to spare.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue comes in 15% below plan.	$121,000	$49,000 cushion	Slow weekdays cut profit fast, but the shop still stays above break-even.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead and payroll rise 100%.	$133,000	$67,000 cushion	Extra labor or rent pressure eats into the buffer.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 18% to 22% of revenue.	$127,000	$73,000 cushion	Waste, packaging, and processor fees push break-even up.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 25%, variable expenses rise to 22%, and fixed costs double.	$192,000	$8,000 cushion	The plan is almost flat, so one more miss can tip it negative.

Should you sign the lease before a specialty donut shop can break even?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease or buy inventory until you can prove 28 daily orders, a $13.00 midweek ticket and $16.00 weekend ticket, and an 82% contribution margin after variable costs. The model breaks even in Month 4, but the cash low hits Month 2.

1Demand floor28/day

Verify you can sell at least 28 orders a day before you commit, because that is the Year 1 break-even floor in the model.

2Traffic mix320/wk

Check that the week can support 20 Monday, 60 Friday, 80 Saturday, and 70 Sunday orders, since that is the Year 1 volume mix.

3Unit economics$13/$16, 82% CM

Hold midweek AOV at $13.00 and weekend AOV at $16.00, and keep food, packaging, payment, and event fees to 18% of sales so 82% contribution margin, the share left after variable costs, stays to cover payroll and overhead.

4Fixed overhead$1.14K/mo

Confirm you can carry $1,140 a month in non-payroll fixed costs, because that load hits every month even when traffic is soft.

5Launch staffing$105K payroll

Keep launch staffing to the owner operator and one production role; adding service staff in Month 13 should wait until order flow can absorb the higher labor load.

6Cash reserve$834K

Make sure you can fund the $66.2K of setup buys and still carry the Month 2 cash trough, because the model's minimum cash need is $834K.