Sports Pub Break-Even Analysis: $82K Monthly Sales Target

Fixed costs $41.7K/mo Stable overhead

Contribution margin 67% After variable spend

Break-even revenue $62.3K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 3 Model crossover

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against a sports pub's break-even point.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that covers direct costs and fixed overhead. $ Slow nights Packed house Variable expenses Food, beverage ingredients, marketing, and card fees rise with sales. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $249,847 $284,245 revenue - $34,398 variable expenses

Margin ratio

88%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Rent, payroll, and overhead are the monthly base break-even must cover. $ Lean payroll Heavy payroll

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which sports pub expenses are fixed and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if rent, core payroll, and software stay separate from per-sale spending. In the first operating year, food, beverage, marketing, and card-related costs move with revenue, so they reduce contribution margin.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Model at $15,000 per month from Month 1 through Month 60 before calculating sales needed to break even.	Spreading rent across covers and making slow nights look cheaper than they are.
Insurance	Fixed	Hold at $800 per month in the monthly overhead base.	Treating insurance as tied to weekly traffic instead of recurring overhead.
Point-of-sale and reservation software	Fixed	Include the $400 monthly subscription in fixed operating overhead.	Putting software fees into card processing or supplies and understating fixed burn.
Salaried kitchen and management payroll	Fixed	Use base salaries for the head chef, sous chef, line cooks, and restaurant manager as planned staffing overhead.	Assuming core staff can flex down every time weekday covers miss plan.
Servers, bartenders, and dishwashers	Semi-variable	Keep a base schedule, then add coverage as game-night volume rises.	Treating busy-night labor like fixed overhead.
Food Ingredients	Variable	Apply the first-year rate of 11.0% of sales, then adjust by year as the model shows.	Using guest count alone and missing higher-ticket dinner sales.
Beverage Ingredients	Variable	Apply the first-year rate of 3.5% of sales in the contribution margin math.	Blending beverage margin with food margin and hiding mix changes.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $2,500 monthly base, then track spikes from longer hours and packed event nights.	Modeling utilities as fully fixed even when usage rises with traffic.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full sports pub formats?

Scenario table

Break-even shifts with game-day traffic, seat turnover, and the drink mix. As weekend demand and beverage share rise, the CM ratio improves from 81% to 83.5%, so the full case carries a wider cushion.

These are planning assumptions for break-even analysis, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean game-day case	$82k	$15.6k	$66.4k	81%	$0	Right at break-even, so weak weekday traffic can turn the month negative.
Year 1 opening case	$175k	$33.2k	$66.4k	81%	$75.2k	Above break-even, but labor still needs tight control on busy nights.
Year 5 full-house case	$402k	$66.3k	$81.8k	83.5%	$253.7k	Strong cushion, helped by higher beverage share and heavier seat turnover.

What pushes the sports pub past break-even?

Stress test

Base break-even is about $82k a month from $664k of fixed costs and an 81% contribution margin. If weekday covers slip, watch-party turnout is weak, shifts stay overstaffed, and shrink or utility spikes hit, the cushion shrinks fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change from the base plan.	$820k	$0 gap	Covers must hold steady to stay safe.
Revenue shortfall	Sales run 20% below the Year 1 plan.	$820k	$47k cushion	Weak weekday covers can still burn the cushion.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% from the base plan.	$901k	$81k gap	Rent or utility spikes move the target fast.
Margin pressure	Variable load rises from 19% to 24%.	$874k	$54k gap	Shrink and overstaffed slow shifts eat cash.
Combined pressure	Sales fall 50%, variable load reaches 24%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$960k	$65k gap	Soft turnout plus higher costs creates a real gap.

What should the founder verify before signing the lease and building out the sports pub?

Founder checklist

Before you sign the lease or hire the full crew, prove the pub can clear the $82K monthly break-even and still hold cash through the Month 2 low point. If the room, menu mix, or staffing can’t do that, the site is too heavy.

1Lease Load$82K/mo

Verify the site can cover the break-even sales target before you lock the lease, because rent and overhead leave little room for weak weeks.

2Margin Base81% CM

Keep food near 11.0% and beverage ingredients near 3.5% of sales, and lock suppliers to those targets so variable costs do not chew up contribution.

3Weekday Covers40-60 covers

Prove weekday traffic can hold this floor before you build a full-screen destination footprint, since the concept cannot rely on weekends alone.

4Peak Crew12 FTE

Match servers, bartenders, cooks, and dishwashers to game-night peaks so service stays intact when the room fills up.

5Launch FlowPre-open

Test screen, audio, seating, and reservation flow before launch spend, because a messy guest path will waste the first sports nights.

6Cash Cushion$739K

Hold enough cash to reach the Month 2 minimum cash point, and keep opening inventory separate from the operating break-even math.