Hunting Break-Even Analysis: $57K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $46.1K/mo Payroll plus overhead

Contribution margin 81% After variable spend

Break-even revenue $57.2K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 Launch ramp

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and fixed costs.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets how much margin is available to cover fixed costs each month. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses These direct costs rise with each hunt and eat into contribution margin. $ Lean costs Busy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $111,486 $136,125 revenue - $24,639 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base the business has to cover before profit. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which guided hunt expenses are fixed, variable, or semi-fixed at break-even?

Cost classification

Break-even is more reliable when fixed overhead stays separate from trip-driven spend. Here, land leases and payroll set the monthly nut, while supplies, licensing, marketing, and access fees move with revenue.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Land Lease Payments	Fixed	Include $5,000 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading the lease only across booked hunts.
General Business Insurance	Fixed	Include $1,200 per month in fixed overhead before calculating contribution margin.	Treating required coverage as optional.
Staff Salaries	Fixed	Include about $33.8k per month in first-year payroll based on the stated full-time equivalent plan.	Ignoring payroll during slow or idle seasons.
In-Field Supplies & Provisions	Variable	Model at 7.0% of first-year revenue, stepping down to 6.0% by the fifth year.	Burying food, field supplies, and trip support in overhead.
Guide Licensing & Insurance	Variable	Model at 3.5% of first-year revenue, separate from general business insurance.	Double counting it with fixed insurance.
Marketing & Advertising	Variable	Model at 6.0% of first-year revenue, falling to 5.0% by the fifth year.	Assuming booked demand is free.
Land Access Fees	Variable	Model at 3.0% of first-year revenue and keep it separate from fixed lease payments.	Confusing variable access fees with base land leases.
Vehicle & Equipment Maintenance	Semi-variable	Start with the $2,500 monthly base and stress test heavier-use months as hunt volume rises.	Treating wear and repair spend as flat at all volumes.

How does break-even shift across lean, base, and full hunting months?

Scenario table

Lean months sit near break-even because revenue barely clears fixed load. Base and full months add cushion fast, so the real lever is keeping higher-value hunts booked enough to cover the fixed camp and guide base.

Planning assumptions only; actual bookings, pricing, and costs can move the result.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean hunting month	$565K	$110K	$461K	80.5%	-$6K	Near break-even, so a small miss can turn the month negative.
Base hunting month	$736K	$143K	$461K	80.6%	$132K	Comfortable cushion; this is the clearest Year 1 operating case.
Full hunting month	$989K	$193K	$461K	80.5%	$335K	Strong cushion; fixed costs are covered with room to spare.

What can push this hunting service below break-even?

Stress test

The first-year plan clears break-even, but the cushion can shrink fast if bookings slip, overhead rises, or trip margin falls. Weak deposits, guide overtime, fuel spikes, land access hikes, weather disruption, and empty weekdays are the main warning signs.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$686K	$197K cushion	The plan clears break-even, but the cushion is not huge.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 15% while cost mix stays the same.	$686K	$65K cushion	A smaller booking load still works, but the buffer drops fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 10%.	$755K	$128K cushion	Higher overhead lifts the revenue needed to stay whole.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise to 24.5% of revenue.	$732K	$151K cushion	Fuel, supplies, or guide overtime can squeeze trip margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 15%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable expenses rise to 24.5%.	$804K	$54K gap	This is the break case: bookings, overhead, and margin all move the wrong way.

Are bookings and cash strong enough before you sign the land lease for guided hunts?

Founder checklist

The model says break-even lands by Month 2, but the cash trough hits $581K in Month 7. Don’t sign the lease or hire the full team until deposits and season bookings are in hand.

1Booked Deposits125 hunts

Verify deposits are in for the full Year 1 mix of 30 elk, 40 mule deer, 50 whitetail, and 5 corporate hunts before you lock land access.

2Fixed Load$46.1K/mo

Make sure the $5,000 land lease, $2,500 vehicle maintenance, $1,500 lodging upkeep, and wage stack stay inside the monthly fixed base before launch.

3Trip Margin80.5% CM

Contribution margin, the share left after variable costs, stays near 80.5% in Year 1, so each hunt still has room to cover fixed payroll and camp costs.

4Guide Capacity6.0 FTE

Match the opening team’s 6.0 full-time equivalent plan to the 125 Year 1 hunts so peak elk and mule deer weeks do not overload the guides.

5Cash Cushion$581K

Protect the minimum cash need through Month 7, and delay noncritical gear if the reserve starts to slip during the ramp.

6Launch MixMonth 2

Test whether the seasonal price mix for elk, mule deer, whitetail, and corporate hunts can reach break-even by Month 2, not just in the mature year.