Poke Bowl Break-Even Analysis: ~$167K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $13.5K/mo Overhead and labor

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $16.7K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 3 Model crossover

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and fixed monthly costs.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin available to cover fixed costs. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses Use costs that rise with each sale, like ingredients and fees. $ Tight costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $30,540 $37,700 revenue - $7,160 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base revenue must cover. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses stay fixed and which move with sales for this Hawaiian-inspired bowl stall?

Cost classification

Break-even works only if each expense follows the right driver. In the first year, revenue-linked costs total 19.0% of sales, while rent, permits, subscriptions, and salaries need separate fixed or step-based treatment.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Fresh Produce & Ingredients	Variable	Model at 12.0% of first-year revenue, falling to 10.0% by the mature year.	Using a flat dollar amount and hiding margin pressure from fish, rice, and toppings.
Eco-friendly Packaging	Variable	Apply 2.5% of first-year revenue, then reduce to 1.5% by the mature year.	Treating bowls, lids, bags, and utensils as fixed supplies.
POS System Fees & Transaction	Variable	Use 1.5% of first-year revenue, declining to 0.7% as payment volume scales.	Counting only the $80 subscription and missing per-sale processing fees.
Marketing & Promotions	Variable	Model as 3.0% of first-year revenue, easing to 2.0% by the mature year.	Locking marketing at one monthly amount even when sales campaigns rise with volume.
Prep Kitchen & Storage Rent	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent per bowl and understating the sales needed before break-even.
Vehicle Maintenance Base	Semi-variable	Start with the $500 monthly base, then add usage pressure if route miles increase.	Treating maintenance as purely fixed when longer service days raise repairs.
Owner Operator	Semi-fixed	Use the $70,000 annual salary as a capacity block, not a per-order charge.	Treating labor as purely variable when staffing jumps in steps.
Juice Bar Attendant	Semi-fixed	Model $35,000 per full-time equivalent, rising from 1.0 FTE in the first year to 3.0 FTE by the mature year.	Smoothing payroll as a percentage of sales instead of adding staff by shift coverage.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full Street Food Poke Bowl formats?

Scenario table

Higher volume improves the margin base, but added staff and support costs push the fixed-cost floor up. So break-even revenue rises from lean to full even as contribution margin gets better.

Planning figures only; these are researched assumptions, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean pop-up case	$363k	$69k	$135k	81.0%	$159k	Break-even sits near $167k, so the lean case has the widest cushion.
Base operating case	$557k	$92k	$223k	83.5%	$242k	Volume covers the bigger fixed base, but the break-even floor still climbs.
Full operating case	$785k	$111k	$303k	85.8%	$370k	Margin is strongest here, yet the larger team pushes break-even to about $353k.

What breaks first if poke bowl sales soften or costs rise?

Stress test

Year 1 sales sit well above break-even, but the cushion narrows fast if traffic drops or seafood, packaging, and labor creep up. The first warning sign is weak weekly covers, then margin erosion.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$167,000	$196,000 cushion	The plan clears break-even by a wide margin.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly sales fall 20% from the Year 1 plan.	$167,000	$123,400 cushion	A 20% sales dip still stays above break-even, but the cushion shrinks fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Monthly overhead rises by $1,000 from rent or staffing.	$168,235	$194,765 cushion	Every extra $1,000 of overhead lifts the break-even line by about $1,235.
Variable pressure	Variable costs rise 1 percentage point from seafood, packaging, or spoilage.	$169,088	$193,912 cushion	Small margin loss hits every sale, so waste control matters.
Combined pressure	Sales fall 20%, overhead rises $1,000, and variable costs rise 1 point.	$170,338	$120,063 cushion	Watch weekly covers below about 346; traffic softness plus cost creep squeezes the cushion fast.

What should you verify before you commit to the stall, lease, or first build-out?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock in the site or first build-out until traffic, ticket size, and cost load can support the Year 1 break-even path. The model points to 750 covers a week, about $11.60 per cover, and a Month 2 cash trough of $803K.

1Traffic Proof750/wk

Verify the site can hit the Year 1 traffic target and at least 50 bowls a day before you add higher fixed costs.

2Fixed Load$13.5K/mo

Verify the $3,530 fixed stack plus $120K in Year 1 payroll does not outrun early sales.

3Unit Margin81% CM

Verify menu pricing holds the $11.60 weighted ticket and keep COGS, POS, and marketing near 19%.

4Staff Ramp2.5 FTE

Verify the opening crew can handle cold-chain prep and service, and do not add the Month 25 roles early.

5Cash Buffer$803K min

Verify reserves can absorb the Month 2 low point and the first build-out spend, including the $80K vehicle, $8K refrigeration, $10K prep equipment, and $5K opening inventory.

6Expansion Gate$80K defer

Verify demand stays strong enough to justify a second $80K vehicle, and do not buy it until traffic proves out.