Break-Even Revenue For A Supper Club: $136K Per Month

Fixed costs $26.4K/mo Overhead only

Contribution margin 83% Before overhead

Break-even revenue $31.8K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 3 Launch ramp

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against the break-even point for a private dining club.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue This is the top line that creates the margin used to cover fixed costs. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses Use costs that move with each dinner served, like food, beverage, and card fees. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $301,290 $363,000 revenue - $61,710 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base your contribution margin has to cover. $ Lower fixed Higher fixed

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which private dining expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets unreliable when fixed overhead is mixed with guest-driven spend. In the first year, treat $82,750 monthly wages as scale-based overhead, while food, beverage, and card fees move with revenue.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Restaurant Lease	Fixed	Use $18,000 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating rent as lower on slow nights.
Utility Services	Semi-variable	Model the $2,500 monthly baseline, then review usage as covers rise.	Assuming utilities move dollar-for-dollar with revenue.
Insurance Premiums	Fixed	Use $1,800 per month as stable operating overhead.	Spreading insurance across each guest like food.
Reservation System Subscription	Fixed	Include $800 per month before calculating contribution margin.	Dropping the subscription from break-even because it feels small.
Premium Food Ingredients	Variable	Use 10.0% of first-year revenue as guest-driven food spend.	Using a flat monthly food budget despite changing covers.
Beverage Inventory	Variable	Use 5.0% of first-year revenue for wine and beverage inventory.	Ignoring the sales mix from wine pairings and premium spirits.
Credit Card Merchant Fees	Variable	Apply 2.0% of revenue because fees rise with paid transactions.	Putting processing fees into fixed overhead.
Staff wages	Semi-fixed	Use $993,000 annually, or $82,750 monthly, because staffing changes by operating scale, not each guest.	Flexing salaried kitchen and service teams by every cover.

How does break-even shift from a lean supper club to the base plan and the full member model?

Scenario table

Break-even moves with revenue scale because fixed rent and staffing stay heavy while variable costs rise with sales. The lean case is just covered, the base case has room to breathe, and the full case carries the widest cushion.

Planning figures only: these are model assumptions for break-even analysis, not a promise of future results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean supper club	$136.4k	$27.3k	$109.2k	80.0%	-$50	Barely covers fixed overhead.
Base supper club	$272.2k	$54.4k	$109.2k	80.0%	$108.6k	Builds a solid cushion above break-even.
Full member club	$445.3k	$64.6k	$126.3k	85.5%	$254.4k	Wide cushion if weekend traffic holds.

What pressures or breaks the break-even plan for this private dining club?

Stress test

Year 1 looks well above break-even: $272.2k monthly revenue against about $109.2k fixed costs and 20% variable spend leaves a wide cushion. The real risks are weaker Friday/Saturday fill, higher food or wine costs, and lease or insurance jumps.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$136,438	$135,762 cushion	Strong cushion, but weekend fill still matters.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% to about $245,000.	$136,438	$108,562 cushion	Less booking volume cuts the safety buffer.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $120,065 a month.	$150,081	$122,119 cushion	Lease, utilities, or insurance hikes raise the floor.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 20% to 25% of sales.	$145,533	$126,667 cushion	Food, beverage, or labor intensity eats margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 10%, variable expenses rise to 25%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$160,087	$84,913 cushion	Room for error shrinks fast, even before taxes and debt.

Can the supper club fill seats and cover the fixed launch load before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Test the lease only after you can show steady cover demand, pricing that matches the model, and enough cash to carry the build through Month 4. If those do not hold, the break-even path is too thin for a big fixed site.

1Cover demand318/wk

Verify you can pre-sell 318 covers a week, with Friday and Saturday carrying the volume, before you commit to the lease.

2Menu pricing$195 / $250

Test whether guests will pay $195 midweek and $250 on weekends, because the dinner mix only works if higher-priced nights stay full.

3Open-readyLaunch gate

Confirm health and alcohol compliance is cleared before member launch, or the fixed lease and payroll start before you can serve.

4Supply margin15% of rev

Lock suppliers that can hold premium food near 10% of revenue and beverage inventory near 5%, since those lines define menu margin.

5Payroll load$993K/yr

Verify you can fund the Year 1 wage plan at $993,000, which covers 15.0 FTE and leaves little room for hiring drift.

6Cash runway$405K by M4

Hold at least $405,000 of cash through Month 4, or the build-out can outrun bookings before the concept reaches break-even.