Supply Chain Management Break-Even Revenue: $153K/Month

Fixed costs $95.9K/mo Recurring base

Contribution margin 71% Left after fees

Break-even revenue $135.0K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 27 Forecast crossing

Break-even calculator

See if monthly revenue covers variable costs first, then the fixed monthly base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that covers variable costs and then fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These move with work volume, like vendor payouts, fees, and support. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $215,637 $289,446 revenue - $73,809 variable expenses

Margin ratio

74%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead break-even must absorb. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales in a supply chain service?

Cost classification

Break-even is only reliable if fixed overhead stays separate from revenue-linked spend. In the first year, fixed items like $5,000 rent sit in monthly overhead, while payouts at 16.0% of revenue reduce contribution margin.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent	Fixed	Include $5,000 in monthly overhead.	Don’t tie it to client count.
Utilities	Fixed	Include $800 in monthly overhead.	Don’t bury it in delivery costs.
Professional Services (Legal, Accounting)	Fixed	Include $2,500 in monthly overhead.	Don’t treat legal and accounting as one-time only.
General Software Subscriptions (CRM, HRIS)	Fixed	Include $1,200 in monthly overhead.	Don’t mix it with revenue-based logistics licenses.
Partner & Vendor Payouts	Variable	Apply 16.0% of first-year revenue.	Don’t count pass-through freight with no margin.
Cloud Hosting & Infrastructure	Variable	Apply 2.5% of first-year revenue.	Don’t assume usage-linked hosting stays flat.
Sales Commissions	Variable	Apply 4.0% of first-year revenue.	Don’t include base salaries here.
Account Manager payroll	Semi-fixed	Add headcount as signed client load grows.	Don’t hire ahead of signed demand.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to a full-service setup?

Scenario table

As payroll, marketing, and support costs rise, monthly break-even moves up fast. The margin gets a little better at scale, but fixed costs are the main reason the target climbs from launch to expansion to full service.

Planning case only. These figures are model assumptions, not a promise of results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch	$153k	$44k	$105k	71.0%	$4k	Slight cushion, but one weak month can erase it.
Base expansion	$198k	$54k	$144k	72.7%	$0	Essentially at break-even, so sales slippage matters.
Full-service scale	$243k	$62k	$181k	74.5%	$0	Better margin, but the larger team keeps the target high.

What breaks the break-even plan for this supply chain management service?

Stress test

The plan is tight at launch. A 71.0% contribution margin needs about $152.7k a month, so slower customer adds or faster payroll growth can turn break-even into cash burn fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$152.7k/mo	$0 cushion	The launch needs about this much monthly revenue to cover fixed costs.
Revenue shortfall	100 active customers at $1,109 monthly revenue each.	$152.7k/mo	$41.8k gap	Customer adds lag, so launch revenue falls short of break-even.
Fixed-cost pressure	Year 2 fixed costs rise to about $143.8k a month.	$197.8k/mo	$86.9k gap	Hiring and marketing push the monthly target up fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses stay at 29.0% instead of easing to 22.0%.	$152.7k/mo	$13.7k gap	A 7-point margin miss keeps break-even higher for longer.
Combined pressure	100 customers and Year 2 fixed costs hit together.	$197.8k/mo	$65.1k gap	Sales lag and payroll growth together create the hardest cash burn.

Can you prove this supply chain service clears break-even before you commit to hires, office space, and onboarding spend?

Founder checklist

Do not lock in hires, office space, or onboarding spend until signed service agreements can support at least $153K in monthly revenue. That is roughly 138 active Year 1 customers at $1,109 average monthly revenue, so the break-even math has real demand behind it.

1Demand Proof$153K/mo

Verify signed service agreements can reach this monthly revenue before you add fixed staff and client onboarding cost.

2CAC Test$1.5K

Check that Year 1 customer acquisition cost stays near $1,500 before you scale the $150K marketing budget.

3Contribution71% CM

At Year 1 pricing, the variable stack uses about 29% of revenue, so each dollar still has room to cover the fixed base.

4Staffing Ramp1.0 FTE

Document onboarding playbooks before the first account manager hire, and keep insurance active before freight or fulfillment work starts.

5Fixed Load$97.0K/mo

Confirm Year 1 salaries and overhead clear this monthly floor once, then delay extra office commitments if remote coordination works.

6Cash Trough-$1.177M

Fund the trough before launch because minimum cash falls to this level in Month 27, and keep software, license, and implementation costs from being counted twice.