Sushi Restaurant Break-Even Analysis: About $259K Monthly Sales

Fixed costs $6.5K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 81.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $8.0K/mo Sales target

Break-even timing Month 3 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test whether monthly sales cover variable costs and fixed overhead, and see the break-even point.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Sales that fund the rest of the month. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses Direct costs that rise with sales, like ingredients, packaging, and payment fees. $ Lower cost Higher cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $30,400 $37,300 revenue - $6,900 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Monthly overhead that break-even must cover. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which sushi restaurant expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is reliable only when rent, labor, ingredients, and fees sit in the right buckets. In the first year, ingredients at 14.0% of sales and rent at $4,500/month behave very differently.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Use $4,500 per month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating lease rent as variable because sales rise.
Business Insurance	Fixed	Use $250 per month as baseline overhead.	Dropping it from break-even because it is not tied to covers.
POS System Subscription	Fixed	Use $150 per month before testing sales volume.	Mixing the subscription with card processing fees.
Fresh Ingredients	Variable	Model at 14.0% of first-year sales, falling to 12.0% by year five.	Treating fish, rice, nori, and other inventory as fixed.
Packaging Supplies	Variable	Model at 1.5% of first-year sales, falling to 1.0% by year five.	Ignoring takeout packaging when delivery and pickup orders grow.
Credit Card Processing	Variable	Model at 2.0% of first-year sales, falling to 1.5% by year five.	Putting payment fees in fixed overhead.
Utilities Base	Semi-variable	Start with the $800 monthly base, then stress test usage as covers rise.	Assuming refrigeration, water, and power stay flat at higher volume.
Service Staff	Semi-fixed	Step wages up as staffing moves from 1.5 FTE in year one to 3.5 FTE in year five.	Spreading all labor as a straight percentage of sales.

How does break-even shift from a lean opening to a full buildout?

Scenario table

Revenues rise from about $44.7k to $84.8k as covers and ticket size step up, but payroll and other fixed costs rise too. So the break-even sales line climbs from about $25.9k to $31.4k even as profit expands.

Planning assumptions only. These figures show modeled break-even under the stated cover, ticket, cost, and staffing mix, not a promise of results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean opening sushi bar	$44.7k	$8.3k	$21.1k	81.5%	$15.3k	Near break-even, so small traffic dips matter.
Base sushi restaurant	$64.2k	$11.4k	$23.6k	82.3%	$29.2k	Solid cushion, but payroll still needs steady covers.
Full sushi restaurant	$84.8k	$14.4k	$26.1k	83.1%	$44.4k	Strong cushion if higher staffing is matched by traffic.

What breaks the break-even plan for this sushi restaurant?

Stress test

Base monthly sales are about $44.7k against $21.1k fixed costs, so there’s room. The risk is a cover slump plus higher seafood, payroll, or rent; stack them and the cushion gets thin fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$25,900	$18,800 cushion	Current sales clear break-even by a wide margin.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly sales drop 20% to about $35,700.	$25,900	$9,800 cushion	If covers slip under about 59 a day, the buffer shrinks fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Payroll rises $3,000 and rent rises $1,000, lifting fixed costs to $25,108.	$30,800	$13,900 cushion	Wage and rent creep push the break-even line higher.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 points to 23.5% of sales.	$27,600	$17,100 cushion	Seafood, spoilage, and online fees can move break-even up fast.
Combined pressure	Sales drop 20%, variable expenses rise to 23.5%, and fixed costs reach $25,108.	$32,800	$2,900 cushion	One more slip could wipe out the remaining profit.

Can this sushi restaurant clear break-even before you sign the lease and build-out?

Founder checklist

Test the site against break-even before you commit. If you can’t see a path to about 59 covers a day while holding the Month 2 cash floor, don’t sign yet.

1Launch demand59/day

Confirm opening traffic can reach about 59 covers a day at the planned check, or the site will miss break-even.

2Lease load$6,525/mo

Keep rent and fixed overhead at $6,525 a month before payroll so the lease does not eat the early margin.

3Unit margin81.5% CM

Check that ingredients, packaging, card fees, and platform fees leave an 81.5% contribution margin before payroll.

4Staffing ramp$14.6K/mo

Make sure first-year payroll of about $14,583 a month can run without overtime, because labor swings can erase the margin.

5Capex plan$87K

Hold startup spend near $87,000 and verify refrigeration, equipment, POS, furniture, and smallwares are ready before launch.

6Cash cushion$848K

Keep the Month 2 cash reserve at the model’s $848,000 minimum so you can absorb build-out, hiring, and opening lag.