Tagua Nut Carving Break-Even Analysis: $157K Monthly Target

Fixed costs $10.8K/mo Core monthly base

Contribution margin 64.1% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $16.9K/mo Monthly sales target

Break-even timing Month 2 Early ramp point

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, direct costs, and studio overhead against break-even for a tagua nut carving business.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue More sales widen the pool that pays overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These rise with each sale, so they cut the cash left for fixed costs. $ Light direct Heavy direct

Money available to cover fixed costs $58,900 $64,583 revenue - $5,683 variable expenses

Margin ratio

91%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly studio base your margin must cover. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which tagua carving expenses are fixed, and which move with each sale?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful when each expense is classified by behavior. Put per-unit materials and payment fees against each sale, but keep rent, subscriptions, and planned salaries in the monthly base.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Raw Tagua Nuts	Variable	Apply the per-unit material amount to each pendant, earring pair, ring, figurine, or necklace sold.	Averaging all materials across products and hiding higher-input items.
Eco-Friendly Packaging	Variable	Charge packaging per unit, including the $1.10 standard pack or $3.50 premium gift box where used.	Treating packaging as overhead instead of a margin item.
E-commerce Payment Processing	Variable	Model as a revenue-linked fee, starting at 3.0% in the first year and declining to 2.6% in the fifth year.	Forgetting that higher sales also raise card fees.
Workshop and Studio Rent	Fixed	Include $2,200 per month from Month 1 through Month 60 before calculating unit break-even.	Dividing rent by current volume and calling it variable.
E-commerce Platform Subscription	Fixed	Include the $290 monthly subscription as part of the base overhead that sales must cover.	Leaving small subscriptions out because they feel immaterial.
Studio Utility Allocation	Semi-variable	Use the 0.5% revenue allocation as production-linked overhead in break-even math.	Putting all utilities in fixed overhead when usage rises with output.
Tool Maintenance Reserve	Semi-variable	Use the 0.4% revenue reserve to cover wear from carving, polishing, and higher production volume.	Waiting for repairs, then treating them as surprise losses.
Founder and Creative Director Salary	Fixed	Carry the $65,000 annual salary as a recurring operating expense across the model period.	Treating founder pay as optional when the model includes it.

How does break-even change as a tagua nut carving business moves from lean test batches to a base online mix and then to a full-scale jewelry and decor line?

Scenario table

Break-even gets easier as sales volume and mix improve, but the fuller build also adds more overhead. Lean is best for market testing, base fits steady direct sales, and full only works if higher volume holds.

Planning figures only; actual break-even will move with price, mix, labor time, and overhead.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean tagua jewelry test	$24.3k	$8.7k	$10.8k	64.1%	$4.8k	Clear of break-even, but the cushion is still thin.
Base online direct-sales build	$64.6k	$21.6k	$18.1k	66.6%	$24.8k	Comfortably above break-even; the main risk is sales swings.
Full-scale jewelry and decor mix	$143.7k	$42.6k	$23.2k	70.3%	$77.8k	Strong cushion, so the bigger watchout is keeping volume steady.

What breaks the break-even plan for a tagua nut carving studio?

Stress test

Year 1 revenue is $291k against about $130k of fixed load and roughly 29% variable cost. That puts break-even near $183k, so you have about $108k of cushion; the plan gets tighter fast if sales slip or payroll steps up.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$183k	$108k cushion	Year 1 clears break-even with room left.
Revenue shortfall	Annual sales slip to $157k.	$183k	$26k gap	Sales fall below break-even, so cash burn starts.
Fixed-cost pressure	Payroll rises to the Year 2 level of $131k.	$247k	$44k cushion	Higher staffing lifts the hurdle fast.
Margin pressure	Revenue-linked fees rise to 22% while unit costs hold.	$221k	$70k cushion	Cost drag trims the cushion even if sales hold.
Combined pressure	Sales slip to $157k, payroll reaches $181k, and fees stay at 22%.	$308k	$17k gap	All three hits together push the plan back into the red.

Can you prove the tagua carving launch can cover its fixed costs before you lock in the workshop and inventory?

Founder checklist

Don’t commit to the studio, tools, and payroll until the Year 1 sales plan, margin, and cash trough all hold up. The model only works if you can carry a $10.8K monthly fixed load, hit 6,000 units in Year 1, and survive the Month 2 cash dip.

1Demand Proof$291K Y1

Make sure real orders point to the $291K Year 1 revenue plan, not just event buzz, because the workshop only pays off if demand stays steady.

2Fixed Load$10.8K/mo

Keep the monthly fixed load near $10.8K before adding more overhead, because rent, software, insurance, and payroll come due even when sales are soft.

3Unit Margin58%-80% CM

Test pendant, earring, ring, figurine, and necklace pricing against raw tagua, labor, and waste, because thin margins disappear fast once payment and marketing fees hit.

4Capacity Ramp6,000 units

Confirm the founder plus 0.5 FTE operations can produce and ship 6,000 Year 1 units, because hiring ahead of output pushes break-even out.

5Cash Cushion$1.174M

Hold enough cash to cover the Month 2 trough, because minimum cash is $1.174M and nonessential capex can wait if the buffer is tight.

6Launch ReadyMonth 2

Have the carving tools, dust extraction, polishing setup, packaging flow, listings, booth calendar, fulfillment process, and workspace safety ready by Month 2, because that is when the model expects break-even.