Taproom Break-Even Analysis: $276K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $5.5K/mo Core monthly overhead

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $6.8K/mo Sales to cover

Break-even timing Month 4 First break-even month

Break-even calculator

Enter monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs to test where the taproom covers its monthly overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Use the cash you bring in before direct costs. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses These rise with sales, like ingredients, promo, and supplies. $ Tight costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $46,924 $57,435 revenue - $10,511 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the overhead you pay even when traffic is soft. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which taproom expenses are fixed, and which move with sales at break-even?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each line follows how the taproom actually works. Fixed rent stays at $5,000, but ingredients, promo, utilities, and payroll move with sales volume or staffing steps, so lumping them into overhead distorts Month 4 break-even.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent ($5,000/month)	Fixed	Keep in monthly overhead across the relevant planning range.	Trying to spread rent by guest count too early.
Internet & Phone ($150/month)	Fixed	Include as stable monthly overhead for each break-even month.	Treating small subscriptions as too minor to model.
Business Insurance ($250/month)	Fixed	Hold flat unless coverage changes with location or risk.	Forgetting insurance when testing low-sales months.
POS System Subscription ($100/month)	Fixed	Include as a fixed platform charge before profit starts.	Confusing subscription fees with per-transaction fees.
Raw Ingredients (12% of sales)	Variable	Apply as a sales-linked percentage before contribution margin.	Putting inventory into fixed overhead.
Marketing & Promotion (3% of sales)	Variable	Model as sales-linked spend tied to traffic generation.	Leaving promo flat while assuming higher guest counts.
Utilities ($1,200/month)	Semi-variable	Start with the base charge, then flex for longer hours and traffic.	Assuming utilities stay flat as operating volume rises.
Payroll Steps	Semi-fixed	Add labor in staffing blocks as coverage needs rise.	Treating launch payroll as fully flexible.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full taproom formats?

Scenario table

More volume lifts revenue, but added staff and fixed costs push break-even up. The lean case is the safest lease test, the base case fits staffed growth, and the full case needs higher covers to pay off.

Planning cases only; actual results will move with covers, menu mix, and staffing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean lease test	$38,740	$7,361	$22,333	81%	$9,046	Good lease test with a thin cushion.
Base staffed growth case	$57,438	$10,511	$25,667	81.7%	$21,260	Healthy cushion, but staffing must stay tight.
Full cover-volume case	$84,283	$14,575	$29,417	82.7%	$40,291	Works best if higher covers cover the added roles.

What happens if traffic, payroll, or margin slips?

Stress test

Break-even is fragile if traffic softens or payroll and margins move the wrong way. At the Year 1 plan, the taproom clears break-even by about $11.2k a month, but a 10% sales dip or higher costs can shrink that buffer fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$27,572	$11,168 cushion	Clear cushion, but costs can eat it.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% to $34,866.	$27,572	$7,294 cushion	A small sales dip cuts the buffer quickly.
Fixed-cost pressure	Payroll rises 10%, lifting fixed costs to $23,792.	$29,373	$9,367 cushion	Payroll creep pushes break-even higher fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 19% to 22% of sales.	$28,632	$10,108 cushion	Margin loss moves break-even up right away.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, payroll rises 10%, and variable expenses rise to 22%.	$30,503	$4,363 cushion	Weekday covers below 40 to 60 or weekend covers below 90 to 130 are warning signs.

Can this taproom hit Month 4 break-even before you sign the lease and buy the buildout?

Founder checklist

Don’t commit until the model works on real traffic, not hope. The taproom needs about $7,750 in fixed overhead before payroll, about $14,583 a month in Year 1 payroll, $205,000 of launch capex, and a $733,000 cash floor in Month 2.

1Foot Traffic40-60 / 90-130

Verify weekday and weekend covers can reach the forecast range, because that’s the demand base behind Month 4 break-even.

2Fixed Overhead$7.75K/mo

Confirm rent and other fixed costs stay at $7,750 a month before payroll, or the break-even line moves fast.

3Payroll Plan$14.6K/mo

Lock the Year 1 staffing plan at about $14,583 a month so labor does not outrun the early revenue ramp.

4Launch Capex$205K

Check that the taproom can fund the $205,000 equipment and buildout package before ordering anything nonrefundable.

5Cash Cushion$733K

Hold at least the $733,000 minimum cash need by Month 2, because the model does not turn until Month 4.

6Opening StackReady to open

Confirm the tap system, POS, refrigeration, security, insurance, supplier terms, opening inventory, and working capital are ready before commitment.