Tilapia Farming Break-Even Analysis: $86K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $68.8K/mo Overhead base

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $84.9K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 33 Model midpoint

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a tilapia farm.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets how much margin is left after direct costs and before overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Use direct costs that move with output, like feed, hauling, packaging, and processing. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $76,544 $92,000 revenue - $15,456 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

$10,373 short

Fixed monthly costs Use the monthly overhead the farm must cover even when sales are light. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which tilapia farm expenses are fixed and which move with sales volume?

Cost classification

Break-even is only reliable if harvest-linked costs stay variable and overhead stays fixed. Here, Month 33 break-even depends on separating feed, packaging, and juvenile purchases from rent, permits, and step-up staffing.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Fish Feed	Variable	Model as revenue-linked input; first year assumption is 12.0% of revenue, falling to 10.0% by Year 5.	Using a flat dollar budget and missing feed savings as yield improves.
Processing & Packaging Materials	Variable	Tie to product sales; first year rate is 2.5% of revenue and declines as volume scales.	Treating packaging like overhead when it rises with processed pounds sold.
Direct Water Treatment Chemicals	Variable	Link to production activity; first year rate is 1.0% of revenue, then steps down in later years.	Parking chemicals in fixed overhead and overstating contribution margin.
Refrigerated Transportation & Distribution	Variable	Apply to delivered sales; first year rate is 3.5% of revenue, easing to 2.5% by Year 5.	Ignoring route volume, which makes delivery look cheaper than it is.
Purchased Juveniles	Variable	Use production cycles: 15,000 juveniles per cycle × 2 cycles × $0.40 = $12,000 in the first year.	Leaving purchases in the model after own hatchery supply replaces them.
Facility Lease/Rent	Fixed	Carry as $15,000 per month from Month 1 through the planning period.	Spreading rent per fish and hiding the cash burn before volume ramps.
Aquaculture Technicians	Semi-fixed	Model as staffing blocks; headcount rises from 2.0 FTE in Year 1 to 6.0 FTE by Year 5.	Treating payroll as fully variable when FTE steps up by year.
Facility Maintenance & Repairs	Semi-variable	Keep the $3,000 monthly base, then test added repairs when systems run harder.	Assuming maintenance stays flat as tanks, filtration, and processing hours increase.

How does break-even move as a tilapia farm shifts from lean to base to full scale?

Scenario table

Break-even improves as harvested weight and pricing rise, but fixed cost and variable spend also climb. The base case is the cleanest balance: less capacity risk than full, and a faster path to positive break-even.

Planning figures only. These are modeled assumptions, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean tilapia farm	$734k	$149k	$688k	796%	-$104k	Still below break-even; fixed cost outruns the margin cushion.
Base tilapia farm	$1.092m	$204k	$782k	814%	$107k	Break-even turns positive with less capacity risk than full scale.
Full tilapia farm	$1.553m	$265k	$869k	830%	$419k	Strong cushion, but it depends on higher output and more fixed spend.

What breaks first if tilapia sales slip or costs run hot?

Stress test

The base plan has about $131k of monthly cushion, but lower selling prices, a higher feed share, slower harvest cycles, or mortality above plan can eat that fast. A 10% sales drop still works, but the margin gets tight.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change in revenue, variable cost share, or fixed overhead.	$961k	$131k cushion	Healthy on paper, but the cushion is not huge.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% from plan.	$961k	$22k cushion	Sales still cover break-even, but only by a slim margin.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises 10% across the farm.	$1.06M	$35k cushion	Overhead growth quickly absorbs the plan’s spare room.
Margin pressure	Variable expense load moves from 18.64% to 20.36%.	$982k	$110k cushion	Higher feed and handling cost cut profit by about $19k.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10% and fixed costs rise 10%.	$1.03M	$50k gap	This is the failure point; a small miss turns the month negative.

Is this tilapia farm ready before you sign the lease and stock fish?

Founder checklist

Test the lease, tanks, buyers, and cash against the break-even model before you commit. Breakeven lands in Month 33, and minimum cash drops to -$1.794M, so a weak start gets expensive fast.

1Site burn$68.8K/mo

Verify the $15,000 lease and Year 1 labor plan fit the opening burn, because fixed costs are $26.5K a month before payroll and wages add about $42.3K a month.

2Stocking setup15,000/cycle

Confirm water, power, filtration, backup systems, cold storage, and fingerling supply before stocking, because Year 1 still calls for 15,000 purchased juveniles per production cycle and the hatchery must carry the rest.

3Buyer mix40/45/10/5 mix

Line up buyers for fillets, whole fish, live fish, and smoked fish before launch, because Year 1 volume depends on selling the 40%, 45%, 10%, and 5% mix.

4Feed margin81.0% CM

Keep feed, refrigerated transport, packaging, and water treatment within the Year 1 model, where those costs total 19.0% of revenue and leave an 81.0% contribution margin before payroll and rent.

5Labor ramp9.5 FTE

Check that 1 manager, 2 technicians, 3 processors, a 0.5 sales lead, 1 admin, 1 quality lead, and 1 hatchery specialist can run two production cycles per year, because the Year 1 staffing plan totals 9.5 FTE.

6Cash trough-$1.794M

Hold cash through the trough, because minimum cash reaches -$1.794M around Month 32 and breakeven does not arrive until Month 33.