Tobiko Supply Break-Even Analysis: $83K Monthly Sales Target

Fixed costs $22.0K/mo Hard overhead base

Contribution margin 80% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $83.1K/mo Monthly target sales

Break-even timing Month 2 Launch ramp point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test whether monthly sales cover direct costs and fixed overhead for a tobiko supply business.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Monthly sales drive the cash left after direct costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These move with shipped volume and sales activity. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $147,499 $182,333 revenue - $34,834 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the overhead the margin must pay each month. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales in a flying fish roe supply break-even model?

Cost classification

Break-even gets reliable only when sales-linked costs stay below the gross margin line and overhead stays fixed. In the first year, revenue-driven costs equal 20.0% of sales, while core fixed overhead is $22,000/month before payroll.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Raw Roe Sourcing and Processing	Variable	Model at 12.5% of first-year revenue, falling to 10.5% by the mature year as purchasing scale improves.	Treating sourcing as fixed overhead and overstating margin at low volume.
Eco Friendly Insulated Packaging	Variable	Deduct at 2.5% of first-year revenue, then reduce to 1.8% by the mature year based on the model.	Leaving packaging out of contribution margin because it looks small per order.
Cold Chain Logistics and Freight	Variable	Apply at 4.0% of first-year revenue, improving to 3.2% as route density rises.	Classifying freight as fixed and missing the cash impact of higher shipment volume.
Sales Commissions and Incentives	Variable	Keep at 1.0% of revenue across all five years, since it moves directly with sales.	Counting commissions below break-even instead of inside variable selling expense.
Cold Storage Facility Rent	Fixed	Include $12,000/month in monthly overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent across units and making break-even look easier when volume rises.
FDA Compliance and Quality Audits	Fixed	Include $2,500/month as recurring overhead because the model runs it every month.	Removing compliance spend after launch even though audits continue through operations.
Refrigerated Fleet Maintenance	Semi-variable	Start with the $3,200/month base, then watch usage as deliveries and route density increase.	Treating all fleet maintenance as fixed when more miles can raise service needs.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model wage steps as headcount rises from $495,000 in the first year to $570,000 in the second year.	Smoothing payroll as a sales percentage instead of showing FTE step-ups.

How does break-even change from lean to base to full tobiko supply scale?

Scenario table

This table uses supply-side assumptions only; customer mix is not broken out. As scale rises, lower sourcing, packaging, and freight rates lift the margin and widen the break-even cushion.

Planning case only: these figures are model-based assumptions, not a guarantee of future orders, prices, or margin.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Year 1 lean tobiko scale	$118.6k	$23.7k	$66.5k	80.0%	$22.0k	Revenue clears break-even, but the cushion is still modest.
Year 2 base tobiko scale	$182.3k	$34.8k	$72.7k	80.9%	$65.8k	This is the clearest middle case for stable break-even coverage.
Year 3 full tobiko scale	$282.1k	$51.4k	$88.3k	81.8%	$128.2k	The cushion is strongest here as variable rates keep easing.

What pressures the break-even plan the most for this seafood supply business?

Stress test

Year 1 has about $355K of monthly revenue cushion, but the model gets tight fast if restaurant demand slows or cold-chain freight rises. At $831K monthly revenue, break-even vanishes; at $727K overhead, the needed revenue rises to about $899K.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$831K	$355K cushion	The base case clears break-even, but the buffer is not huge.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue slips to about $830K, just under the current break-even line.	$831K	$1K gap	One weak month pushes profit to a loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Monthly overhead rises from $665K to $727K.	$899K	$286K cushion	The overhead bump cuts the cushion by about $69K.
Margin pressure	Cold-chain freight rises from 4.0% to 5.0% of sales.	$842K	$343K cushion	A small freight hike trims the cushion and raises the sales floor.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls to about $830K, overhead rises to $727K, and freight lifts variable load to 21%.	$920K	$90K gap	Demand and freight moving together would push the plan below break-even.

Is this tobiko roe supply business ready to commit to the warehouse lease and refrigerated fleet?

Founder checklist

Only move ahead if near-signed accounts can absorb the Year 1 plan of 17,000 units and $1.423M revenue, and the business can carry about $66.5K a month in fixed load plus the Month 6 cash floor of $656K. If either slips, delay the lease, fleet buy, and full hires.

1Demand Proof17,000 units

Verify near-signed restaurant and retail orders can support the Year 1 plan of 17,000 units and $1.423M revenue before you buy inventory.

2Contribution80.0% CM

Lock raw roe sourcing, packaging, freight, and commissions near 20.0% of revenue so contribution margin stays near 80.0% before fixed costs.

3Fixed Load$66.5K/mo

Confirm rent, audits, marketing, fleet maintenance, insurance, software, and Year 1 payroll stay within the monthly run rate before the lease is signed.

4Team Ramp6.0 FTE

Make sure the Year 1 team can cover operations, QC, sales, logistics, and admin without adding headcount before revenue lands.

5Cash Floor$656K

Keep enough cash through Month 6; the model's minimum cash need is $656K, so a shortfall would squeeze inventory and freight.

6Capex Gate$410K

Do not release the $410K launch capex bundle unless demand timing can support it and working capital still stays intact.