Tomato Paste Production Break-Even Analysis: $99K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $83.7K/mo Rent + payroll

Contribution margin 79% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $105.8K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 1 First profit month

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Higher revenue gives you more margin to cover fixed costs. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These rise with output and include direct production costs, logistics, and sales commissions. $ Lean costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $1,334,692 $1,562,000 revenue - $227,308 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base your contribution margin must cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which tomato paste production expenses are fixed, variable, semi-variable, and semi-fixed?

Cost classification

Break-even is reliable only when unit-linked costs stay out of fixed overhead. Packaging, freight, tomatoes, and yield-driven utilities should move with volume, so contribution margin reflects the real cash left per unit.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Raw tomatoes and raw organic tomatoes	Variable	Deduct $300 to $450 per unit before calculating contribution margin.	Treating tomato input spend as stable despite production volume.
Direct production labor	Variable	Deduct $50 to $80 per unit based on product type.	Blending direct labor with salaried plant payroll.
Drum and tote packaging	Variable	Deduct $20 to $30 per unit shipped.	Putting packaging in fixed overhead and overstating margin.
Logistics & Transportation	Variable	Model at 4.0% of first year revenue, then use the forecast rate by year.	Using one flat freight budget as sales volume rises.
Sales Commissions	Variable	Model at 3.0% of first year revenue, then use the forecast rate by year.	Counting commissions below break-even instead of inside contribution margin.
Factory Rent	Fixed	Include $15,000 per month in the monthly break-even hurdle.	Spreading rent per unit and hiding unused capacity risk.
Facility utilities and quality control overhead	Semi-variable	Model as revenue-linked overhead at the stated product percentages.	Treating yield-driven utility and testing load as fully fixed.
Production staff wages	Semi-fixed	Add hiring steps as volume rises from 3.0 to 6.0 FTE.	Assuming headcount rises smoothly with each added unit.

How does break-even move from lean to full-capacity tomato paste production?

Scenario table

The lean case just clears fixed costs, while the base case gets a wider cushion from higher throughput and a stronger mix of bulk drums, organic volume, and premium totes. Full capacity improves fixed-cost dilution again, so the risk shifts from survival to execution.

Planning cases are based on model assumptions, so actual results will move with throughput, pricing, and product mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean case: break-even floor	$98,908	$20,583	$78,325	79.2%	$0	Barely breaks even; one small throughput miss creates a loss.
Base case: Year 1 mix	$834,833	$173,693	$78,325	79.2%	$582,815	Healthy cushion if bulk drums, organic volume, and totes hold.
Full-capacity case: Year 5 mix	$2,530,000	$445,015	$94,992	82.4%	$1,989,993	Strong cushion; throughput now does the heavy lifting.

What breaks the break-even plan for tomato paste production?

Stress test

The base case has a wide cushion, but lower sales and margin pressure from tomato supply, packaging, freight, and yield slips are the real break-even risks. Contribution margin (gross profit after variable costs) drops fast, so the buffer can shrink even if the plan stays profitable.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$98,900	$735,900 cushion	The plan clears break-even with a wide cushion.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% to $751,350.	$98,900	$652,500 cushion	Buyer delays still leave room above break-even.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 20% to $93,990.	$118,700	$716,100 cushion	Overhead can rise before break-even gets tight.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls 5 points to 74.2%.	$105,600	$729,200 cushion	Tomato, packaging, and freight inflation eat cushion fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 25%, margin drops to 74.2%, and fixed costs rise 20%.	$126,700	$499,500 cushion	Even stacked shocks stay positive, but the buffer is thinner.

Can you prove demand and cash cover the tomato paste plant before you commit to the build?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock the lease, equipment orders, or hires until qualified demand covers the $98,900 monthly break-even and the Year 1 plan of $10,018,000 across 1,940 units. The real risk is adding plant cost before buyer demand, not after.

1Break-even demand$98.9K/mo

Verify signed or qualified purchase demand can cover the monthly break-even revenue before you commit to fixed plant costs.

2Year 1 sales$10.018M

Confirm the first operating year sales plan is backed by real buyer interest, because this revenue target has to turn into shipped orders.

3Margin check81% to 86%

Test contribution margin, meaning what is left after variable costs, for each SKU so logistics and commissions do not push the plant below break-even.

4Supply lock1,940 units

Lock tomato and packaging supply for classic, organic, high brix, low acid, and premium tote runs so the Year 1 volume plan can actually ship.

5Plant readinessMonth 1

Verify the processing line, evaporator, filling, sanitation, storage, and quality control lab are ready in the opening month, or output will slip.

6Cash buffer-$42K Month 4

Keep the $3.2M equipment spend separate from operating cash, and do not hire ahead of confirmed throughput if the minimum cash dip hits in Month 4.