Traffic Line Painting Break Even: About $52K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $11.7K/mo Core overhead

Contribution margin 71% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $16.5K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 22 Forecast payback

Break-even calculator

Use this to test whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and fixed costs for a traffic line painting contractor.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that covers variable costs and then fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Use costs that move with each striping job, like materials, fuel, freight, and bidding fees. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $101,523 $138,333 revenue - $36,810 variable expenses

Margin ratio

73%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin must cover before profit starts. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which traffic line painting expenses are fixed, variable, semi-variable, or semi-fixed at break-even?

Cost classification

Break-even gets unreliable when job-linked items are parked in overhead. Paint, fuel, disposal, and bid fees should move with revenue, while rent, leases, and salaried crew capacity should be modeled separately.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Equipment Yard and Office Rent	Fixed	Use $4,500 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent across jobs and hiding the true monthly sales floor.
General Liability and Auto Insurance	Fixed	Use $2,200 per month as a fixed charge within the current operating scale.	Treating insurance as job-variable when it must be covered before any crew rolls out.
Vehicle Lease Payments	Fixed	Use $3,200 per month as fixed overhead for the break-even base case.	Counting leases only when trucks are active, which understates slow-month losses.
Marking Materials and Consumables	Variable	Apply the revenue-linked rate, starting at 18.0% in the first year and declining to 16.0% by the fifth year.	Treating paint, glass beads, and thermoplastic materials as overhead instead of job-linked inputs.
Equipment Fuel and Maintenance	Variable	Apply the revenue-linked rate, starting at 6.0% in the first year and declining to 4.0% by the fifth year.	Leaving fuel in overhead and missing the margin hit from longer roadway jobs.
Project Specific Freight and Disposal	Variable	Apply the revenue-linked rate, starting at 3.0% in the first year and declining to 2.2% by the fifth year.	Ignoring disposal and freight on small parking lot jobs where trip costs still matter.
Sales Commissions and Bidding Fees	Variable	Apply the revenue-linked rate, starting at 2.5% in the first year and falling to 2.0% from the third year onward.	Putting bid fees in overhead, then overestimating contribution margin on won work.
Lead Striping Technician Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model capacity in staffing steps: 1.0 FTE in the first year, 2.0 FTE in the second and third years, and 3.0 FTE from the fourth year.	Assuming technician payroll flexes smoothly with every job instead of jumping when another lead is hired.

How does break-even move from lean to base to full volume in this traffic line painting business?

Scenario table

CM means contribution margin, the share left after variable costs. As roadway work and utilization rise from lean to full, the monthly gap tightens fast, and the model’s break-even signal lands in Month 22.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with job mix, field productivity, and customer demand.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Year 1 parking lot-heavy mix	$35.7k	$10.5k	$40.3k	70.5%	-$15.2k	Still well below break-even, so cash burn stays high.
Year 2 mixed roadway build	$82.8k	$23.4k	$64.7k	71.7%	-$5.3k	Closest to break-even; Month 22 is the key watch point.
Year 3 roadway-weighted mix	$138.3k	$36.8k	$76.0k	73.4%	$25.5k	Clear of break-even, so the model starts to carry fixed costs.

What breaks the break-even plan for a traffic line painting service?

Stress test

The cushion is thin. A 10% revenue drop, a 10% fixed-cost lift, or a 5-point margin hit from more paint, fuel, or idle crew hours can push break-even into a gap.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$788K	$28K cushion	The plan has a small buffer, not a wide one.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% to about $745K.	$788K	$31K gap	Fewer bids won or weaker parking lot job flow can flip this into a gap.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $621K.	$866K	$28K gap	Rent, insurance, or truck costs can erase the cushion fast.
Margin pressure	Variable-expense load rises 5 points, cutting contribution margin to 66.7%.	$848K	$13K gap	More paint, bead, fuel, or idle crew hours squeeze break-even.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed costs rise 10%, and margin drops 5 points.	$931K	$124K gap	Small misses on volume and margin together create a large gap.

Should the founder commit to the yard, crew, and machine buys yet?

Founder checklist

Only commit if launch demand can clear about $52K in monthly revenue and the pricing mix holds. The model gets there with about $2.7K per job, $35.6K of monthly fixed load, and enough cash to survive the Month 26 trough after break-even in Month 22.

1Launch demand$52K/mo

Verify you can book enough striping work at opening to reach about $52K in monthly revenue before you sign the yard lease.

2Job value$2.7K/job

Check that the Year 1 mix of parking lots, roadway markings, and warehouse lines really averages about $2.7K per job, or you will need more jobs than the crew can carry.

3Rate test$185/$275/$220

Test parking lot striping at $185 an hour, roadway markings at $275, and specialty warehouse lines at $220, because those rates drive the 70.5% Year 1 contribution margin.

4Fixed load$35.6K/mo

Make sure the $4,500 yard rent, $3,200 vehicle lease, $2,200 insurance, and Year 1 payroll fit inside this monthly load before you lock in overhead.

5Capacity ramp12.5 hrs

Confirm each active customer can produce about 12.5 billable hours a month, so the opening crew can reach break-even by Month 22 without stretching the schedule.

6Cash cushion$544K

Keep enough cash for the $544K low point, because the trough lands in Month 26 and early capex includes the $28K ride-on machine, $12.5K walk-behind units, $15K kettle, and $12K truck upfits.