Transportation Break-Even Analysis: $115K Monthly Revenue Needed

Fixed costs $73.8K/mo Launch run-rate

Contribution margin 89.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $82.5K/mo Cover the base

Break-even timing Month 4 Model turns positive

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue against variable expenses and fixed costs to see when this transportation and shipping model breaks even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the money that pays direct costs first, then fixed overhead. $ Low volume High volume Variable expenses These costs rise with shipment volume and sales effort. $ Lean costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $210,000 $375,000 revenue - $165,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

56%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the contribution margin must cover. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses stay fixed and which move with shipment volume?

Cost classification

Break-even is reliable only when fixed overhead and volume-linked costs are split cleanly. In the first year, $5,000 office rent is fixed, while payment gateway fees at 1.5% and sales commissions at 4.0% reduce margin on each shipment.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent	Fixed	Include $5,000 per month in the fixed overhead base.	Tying rent to shipment growth instead of capacity.
General Software Licenses	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month before calculating contribution margin.	Placing core subscriptions inside per-order costs.
Payment Gateway Fees	Variable	Deduct 1.5% of revenue in the first year from each transaction.	Ignoring processor fees until cash reconciliation.
Sales Team Commissions	Variable	Deduct 4.0% of revenue in the first year as volume grows.	Treating commissions like payroll instead of sales-linked spend.
Customer Support Per Shipment	Variable	Deduct 3.0% of revenue in the first year for shipment-level support load.	Modeling support as flat while orders rise.
Cloud Infrastructure Transaction Usage	Semi-variable	Model the first-year 2.0% usage charge against revenue, then watch base platform needs separately.	Calling all hosting fixed and overstating margin.
Operations Staffing	Semi-fixed	Add salary capacity in steps as operating load rises; Operations Manager staffing moves from 1.0 FTE to 2.0 FTE by the fifth year.	Assuming staffing scales smoothly with every shipment.
Fuel	Variable	Classify fuel with shipment activity when calculating margin per load.	Treating fuel as fixed and missing empty-mile margin risk.

How do lean, base, and full shipping cases change break-even?

Scenario table

Lean routing and weaker fill push break-even up fast. A denser lane network with more backhaul and repeat enterprise orders pushes it down, because the same $103,008 monthly overhead gets covered by more contribution dollars.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even will move with freight mix, route density, and operating discipline.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean route-fill case	$90,000	$16,200	$103,008	82.0%	-$29,208	Higher deadhead leaves this case below break-even.
Base break-even case	$115,093	$12,085	$103,008	89.5%	$0	Contribution just covers overhead; cash stays tight.
Full density case	$145,000	$10,875	$103,008	92.5%	$31,117	Extra backhaul creates a clear cushion above break-even.

What happens to break-even if shipments slow or costs spike?

Stress test

The base plan clears break-even with about $52.1k of monthly cushion at the stated run-rate. The real pressure points are empty miles, rate cuts, fuel spikes, insurance renewals, maintenance, labor, and low utilization.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$115,093	$52,103 cushion	Healthy at the stated run-rate, but slack is finite.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue drops 10% from the $167,196 run-rate.	$115,093	$35,383 cushion	A 10% miss cuts monthly contribution by about $14,964.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $113,309.	$126,602	$40,594 cushion	More overhead pushes the break-even line up fast.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls from 89.5% to 84.5%.	$121,903	$45,293 cushion	Empty miles, rate cuts, fuel, and maintenance can squeeze margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 10%, fixed costs rise 10%, and contribution margin slips to 84.5%.	$134,056	$16,420 cushion	All three shocks leave little room for operating noise.

What should you verify before committing to vehicles, drivers, or capacity?

Founder checklist

Don't commit to vehicles, drivers, or outside capacity until the Month 4 break-even target looks real. Here, the test is simple: can Year 1 demand cover about $73.8K a month in fixed load, keep acquisition spend inside the $350K budget, and leave the business with at least $490K cash?

1Cash Cushion$490K

Protect at least $490K cash, because minimum cash lands in Month 5 and the model only breaks even in Month 4.

2Fixed Burn$73.8K/mo

Confirm the monthly fixed load before signing leases or hiring, because the business starts at about $73.8K a month before variable volume helps.

3Buyer CAC$200

Test whether buyer acquisition stays near $200 in Year 1, because a higher cost would make the launch funnel too expensive to support break-even.

4Seller CAC$1,500

Keep seller acquisition near $1,500 in Year 1, because supply-side signups get expensive fast and can stall load coverage before break-even.

5Acquisition Budget$350K

Compare the $350K Year 1 acquisition budget to runway, and don't spend it ahead of dispatch workflow that can handle high-volume lanes.

6Margin Stack10.5%

Check that the $10 fixed commission and 8.0% variable fee can outrun the 10.5% direct cost stack; if not, volume will scale losses.