Transportation Company Break-Even: $867K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $11.8K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 84.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $14.0K/mo Core revenue

Break-even timing Month 15 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue against variable expenses and fixed costs to see when a transportation company gets past break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the money available to cover variable costs and then fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are costs that move with each load, shipment, or booking. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $49,000 $58,000 revenue - $9,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

84%

Covers fixed costs

$24,300 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base your contribution margin has to cover. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales in this transportation company?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if each expense follows the right driver. Treat fixed items as monthly burden, variable fees as revenue-linked, and payroll as capacity that steps up as headcount grows.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent	Fixed	Use $5,000 per month in the fixed burden from Month 1 through Month 60.	Tying rent to order volume instead of treating it as committed space.
Legal & Compliance	Fixed	Use $1,500 per month as recurring fixed overhead across the planning period.	Leaving compliance out until revenue starts, which understates early burn.
Software Licenses (Platform)	Fixed	Use $2,000 per month as base operating overhead for the platform stack.	Moving the full amount with sales when the base license is stable.
Insurance	Fixed	Use $800 per month as fixed overhead within the current operating range.	Assuming it scales trip by trip without a usage-based policy driver.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Use about $61,500 per month in the first year, then step it up as full-time equivalent staffing grows.	Modeling payroll as purely variable and missing hiring cliffs.
Cloud Hosting & Infrastructure	Variable	Apply 4.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 2.5% by the fifth year.	Hiding usage-linked platform load inside overhead.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 2.5% of revenue in the first year, falling to 2.1% by the fifth year.	Treating processor fees as fixed even though they follow transaction volume.
Sales Commissions	Variable	Apply 3.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 2.2% by the fifth year.	Forgetting commissions in contribution margin and overstating break-even progress.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full transportation scenarios?

Scenario table

Break-even is tight in lean mode, workable at the base run-rate, and clearly positive in the full build. With fixed costs near $733k a month, the gap is driven by how much contribution you can stack before that line.

Planning figures only; actual break-even will move with route density, capacity use, and acquisition timing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch run-rate	$867k	$134k	$733k	84.5%	$0	At break-even, so any slippage can turn this negative.
Base first-year run-rate	$1,066k	$165k	$733k	84.5%	$168k	Has a modest cushion, but fixed overhead still matters.
Full year-two run-rate	$4,959k	$704k	$733k	85.8%	$3,522k	Well above break-even if acquisition timing and route density hold.

What breaks this transportation break-even plan if revenue slips or costs rise?

Stress test

The base plan has about a $168k monthly cushion, but a 20% revenue drop nearly erases it. Higher fixed costs and a small margin squeeze push break-even above $900k, so buyer activation and route density are the key watches.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$868k	$168k cushion	Healthy, but the cushion is not wide.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 20% from the base plan.	$868k	$12k gap	Buyer activation slows enough to wipe out most of the cushion.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% above the base plan.	$954k	$112k cushion	Payroll, rent, or compliance overhead can absorb the margin buffer.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise to 20.5% of revenue.	$921k	$145k cushion	Insurance, fuel, or driver costs can move the goal line fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 20%, variable expenses rise to 20.5%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$1,014k	$128k gap	A weak market and cost spike turn the model cash-negative.

What must the founder verify before signing the lease and adding vehicles?

Founder checklist

Here’s the quick math: the model carries about $73.3K in fixed cost a month, so don’t scale vehicles or hiring until seller CAC holds near $500, buyer CAC near $150, and you can still keep $288K of cash through Month 14.

1Fixed Base$73.3K/mo

Confirm the monthly fixed-cost base before adding vehicles or more staff, because this is the load that must be covered before the model can breathe.

2Seller CAC$500

Check that seller acquisition stays near $500 CAC so the Year 1 seller budget can buy enough trucking fleets, independent drivers, and specialized carriers.

3Buyer CAC$150

Verify buyer CAC near $150 before spending the Year 1 buyer budget, or the launch will burn cash faster than booked orders grow.

4Buyer Mix60/10/30

Test the mix of 60% small businesses, 10% enterprise clients, and 30% individual shippers, because order size and repeat rate depend on that mix.

5Supply Mix50/40/10

Verify the carrier mix of 50% trucking fleets, 40% independent drivers, and 10% specialized carriers, since dispatch capacity and onboarding speed depend on it.

6Cash Runway$288K / Month 14

Protect cash through Month 14 with at least $288K on hand, stage the $150K platform build, $30K office setup, $20K server purchase, and $15K marketing assets, and delay extra hiring if onboarding lags.