Trucking Service Break-Even Analysis: $705K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $28.9K/mo Monthly fixed base

Contribution margin 77% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $37.5K/mo Revenue threshold

Break-even timing Month 7 Launch breakeven

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against the break-even point for a trucking service.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin left after direct costs to cover fixed overhead. $ Light routes Heavy routes Variable expenses Direct costs like fuel, tolls, maintenance, and commissions rise with each run. $ Low direct High direct

Money available to cover fixed costs $64,000 $75,000 revenue - $11,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead fixed costs must cover, including fleet, staff, and admin. $ Slim overhead Large overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which trucking service expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only reliable if each expense follows its real behavior. Treat the $28,900 monthly overhead as fixed, percentage-based trip costs as variable, and staffing as semi-fixed as dispatch and compliance capacity steps up.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Truck and trailer lease payments	Fixed	Include $15,000 per month in the fixed overhead base from Month 1 through Month 60.	Allocating leases by load and hiding the true monthly revenue floor.
Fleet insurance premiums	Fixed	Include $8,000 per month as fixed overhead for the current fleet plan.	Treating insurance as variable when it does not fall with a slow week.
Office rent and utilities	Fixed	Include $2,500 per month in overhead before contribution margin is applied.	Using a revenue percentage instead of the signed monthly run rate.
Fleet management software subscriptions	Fixed	Include $1,200 per month as a stable operating platform charge.	Dropping software from break-even because it is smaller than fleet costs.
Highway tolls	Variable	Model as 5.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 4.0% by the mature year.	Forgetting tolls on priced lanes and overstating contribution margin.
Direct maintenance per trip	Variable	Model as 4.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 3.0% by the mature year.	Putting all maintenance in fixed overhead even though trips create wear.
Sales commissions	Variable	Apply 8.0% of revenue in the first year, stepping down to 6.0% by the mature year.	Counting gross sales without subtracting the commission needed to win them.
Salaried operations, sales, logistics, admin, dispatch, and safety roles	Semi-fixed	Hold salaries by planned full-time equivalent levels, then step up when new roles start or headcount increases.	Spreading salaries evenly by shipment instead of modeling hiring steps.

How does break-even move from lean to base to full truck utilization?

Scenario table

Lean volume stays well below the fixed-cost load, so losses remain. Base hits the $705k break-even line, and full utilization adds cushion because the contribution margin stays at 77%.

Planning assumptions only; actual results can move with routing, fuel, and customer mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean freight ramp	$600k	$138k	$543k	77%	($81k)	Still below break-even, so loss remains.
Base break-even case	$705k	$162k	$543k	77%	$0	This is the break-even line; extra sales add profit.
Full utilization case	$855k	$196k	$543k	77%	$111k	Higher volume adds cushion after fixed costs.

What pushes trucking break-even out of reach?

Stress test

At the current plan, break-even sits near $705k. A 10% revenue miss, a 10% fixed-cost rise, or a margin drop to 72% all widen the gap fast, and the combined case pushes break-even to about $830k.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$705,000	$0 gap	Break-even is tight, so small misses matter.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% to $635k, with margin holding at 77%.	$705,000	$54k gap	Empty miles or load rates below plan can open a monthly cash hole.
Fixed-cost rise	Fixed costs rise 10% to $597k.	$776,000	$71k gap	Higher insurance, lease, or dispatch costs push break-even up fast.
Margin pressure	Margin falls from 77% to 72%.	$754,000	$49k gap	Repair shocks, tolls, or weaker rates squeeze margin.
Combined pressure	Margin falls to 72% and fixed costs rise 10% to $597k.	$830,000	$125k gap	Cost creep plus softer rates can push the model past safe reach.

What should a trucking founder verify before locking in leases and staff?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock in trucks, trailers, and hires until the freight pipeline, lease cost, insurance, and cash buffer all line up with the model. Break-even is only believable here if you can fund about $297.5K in startup capex and hold $537K of cash through Month 6.

1Load pipeline$15K/mo

Verify signed or highly likely freight volume before you commit to the $15,000 monthly truck and trailer lease, because empty capacity breaks the model fast.

2Unit margin77% CM

Check that Year 1 loads still leave about a 77% contribution margin after tolls, maintenance, commissions, and marketing, since that margin funds the fixed base.

3Insurance quote$8K/mo

Get real fleet insurance quotes before you assume the $8,000 monthly premium holds, because a small gap can wipe out the break-even cushion.

4Capex reserve$297.5K

Reserve the full startup capex for trucks, trailers, systems, office setup, IT, tracking devices, training, and the website, since those costs hit before revenue steadies.

5Cash runway$537K

Hold at least the $537,000 minimum cash need through Month 6, because the model’s low point comes before Month 7 break-even arrives.

6Hiring rampMonth 13

Delay dispatcher and safety hires until load volume supports them, since the model adds a dispatcher in Month 13 and a safety officer in Month 19.