Vape Shop Break-Even Analysis: About $185K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $14.9K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 80.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $18.5K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 18 Model turn point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and fixed monthly costs.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool left after direct costs and before fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are costs that rise with sales, like product cost and card fees. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $24,070 $29,600 revenue - $5,530 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs These are the monthly costs the business must cover even in slow weeks. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which vape shop expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even reliability depends on putting each recurring expense in the right bucket. If sales-linked costs are treated as fixed, the Month 18 break-even target can look safer than it really is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Retail Lease Rent	Fixed	Include $3,500 per month as baseline overhead in every operating month.	Treating rent as if it rises and falls with sales.
Utilities	Fixed	Use $450 per month for the core break-even case, then stress-test higher usage separately.	Ignoring seasonal usage and letting it surprise cash flow.
POS & Inventory Software	Fixed	Include the $200 monthly subscription as recurring overhead from Month 1 to Month 60.	Treating hardware setup as the same recurring software spend.
Store Manager payroll	Semi-fixed	Model the $55,000 annual salary at 1.0 FTE as needed operating coverage.	Calling manager or owner labor free in the break-even math.
Sales Associate 2 payroll	Semi-fixed	Model 0.5 FTE in the first year and 1.0 FTE from the second year onward.	Ignoring schedule creep as store traffic and coverage needs rise.
Wholesale Product Costs	Variable	Apply 15.0% of first-year sales as product-level cost of goods sold.	Using markup instead of margin when estimating gross profit.
Inbound Shipping	Variable	Apply 1.0% of first-year sales so freight stays inside contribution margin.	Leaving freight out and overstating per-order profit.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 2.5% of first-year sales because card fees move with transaction volume.	Assuming cash sales will remove processing fees.

How does break-even change from a lean vape shop setup to base and full-size formats?

Scenario table

Break-even improves as the store moves from lean to full because higher revenue spreads fixed payroll and rent over more sales. The lean case still runs below break-even, the base case is close, and the full case has a wide cushion.

Planning figures only; actual results will move with product mix, rent, and staffing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean vape shop	$88k	$17.2k	$149k	80.5%	-$78.2k	Break-even needs about $185k, so this case is still far below it.
Base vape shop	$264k	$49.4k	$184k	81.3%	$30.6k	Break-even is about $226k, so this case has a small cushion.
Full-size vape shop	$496k	$88.8k	$220k	82.1%	$187.2k	Break-even is about $268k, so this case has a strong cushion.

What breaks first if sales slip or costs rise at this vape shop?

Stress test

At the Year 2 base, about $264k in monthly revenue covers about $184k of fixed costs and leaves a healthy cushion. The weak spots are traffic, basket size, supplier pricing, staffing, and rent; stacked pressure can turn that cushion into a loss.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change; Year 2 stays near $264,000 in monthly revenue.	$226,569	$37,431 cushion	Base case clears break-even with room.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% to about $237,600.	$226,569	$11,031 cushion	Traffic weakness cuts the cushion fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $202,400 a month.	$248,832	$15,168 cushion	Rent or staffing pressure eats most of the buffer.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 3 points, cutting contribution margin to 78.3%.	$234,995	$29,005 cushion	Supplier cost increases hit profit before sales do.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable expenses rise 3 points.	$258,493	$20,893 gap	Small misses stack up and create a monthly loss.

Can this vape shop clear break-even before you sign the lease and buy opening inventory?

Founder checklist

Year 1 needs about $18.5K in monthly sales to cover fixed costs and payroll. If the site cannot support that before you commit to rent and inventory, the break-even plan is too thin.

1Break-even sales$18.5K/mo

Verify the store can clear about $18.5K in monthly sales before you lock the lease, because that is the line that covers Year 1 fixed cost load.

2Fixed load$14.9K/mo

Add the $3,500 rent to the rest of overhead and payroll, because the shop needs to carry about $14.9K a month before product margin helps.

3Margin mix80.5% CM

Contribution margin, the cash left after product and card fees, should stay near 80.5%, so supplier terms and fee control are not optional.

4Staff cover2.5 FTE

Verify one manager, one full-time associate, and a half-time second associate can cover opening hours, because the Year 1 staffing ramp starts at 2.5 FTE.

5Cash floor$738K by Month 21

Hold enough runway for the $738K cash low in Month 21, because Year 1 EBITDA is -$94K and payback takes 39 months.

6Traffic test169 buyers/mo

Test the site first, because Year 1 traffic at 15% conversion supports only about 169 buyers a month, below the roughly 323 orders needed to break even.