Duct Cleaning Break-Even Analysis: About 42 Jobs Per Month

Fixed costs $20.5K/mo Payroll plus overhead

Contribution margin 78% After job costs

Break-even revenue $26.2K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 7 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs to see where a duct cleaning business breaks even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash in that has to cover direct costs and overhead. $ Low revenue High revenue Variable expenses These rise with more jobs, like supplies, travel, and lead generation. $ Low direct costs High direct costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $20,350 $27,350 revenue - $7,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

74%

Covers fixed costs

$100 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base your revenue must cover. $ Small overhead Large overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which duct cleaning expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if fixed overhead stays separate from job-level margin. Treat fuel, job supplies, and ads as margin reducers, or Month 7 break-even can look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office/Warehouse Rent	Fixed	Use $1,500 per month in monthly overhead before calculating required contribution.	Spreading rent across jobs and hiding the true monthly hurdle.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $300 monthly base, then watch usage as job volume rises.	Treating all utilities as fixed when equipment use and shop activity increase.
Business Insurance and Fleet Vehicle Insurance	Fixed	Include $650 per month as stable overhead within the planning range.	Assigning insurance to each job instead of the monthly break-even base.
Scheduling and Accounting Software Subscriptions	Fixed	Include $200 per month as recurring overhead for dispatch, billing, and books.	Ignoring small subscriptions because each line item looks minor.
Owner/Operator, Technician, and Scheduler Payroll	Fixed	Use planned salaries and full-time equivalent staffing as monthly overhead in the source case.	Modeling payroll as variable before labor schedules actually flex with jobs.
Consumables & Cleaning Solutions	Variable	Reduce gross margin by 5.0% of revenue in the first year.	Putting cleaning supplies in overhead and overstating job margin.
Vehicle Operating Costs	Variable	Reduce contribution by 8.0% of revenue for fuel and per-job maintenance.	Treating fuel as fixed because the vans are already owned or insured.
Marketing & Advertising Lead Generation	Variable	Reduce contribution by 7.0% of revenue for non-CAC lead generation spend.	Counting ads only as overhead instead of tying them to sales volume.

How does break-even shift from a lean duct cleaning mix to a fuller one?

Scenario table

The lean case is closest to break-even, while the base and full cases get more help from higher commercial mix. Keep lead generation in variable costs only once, because double-counting it against the annual marketing budget will distort the cushion.

Planning figures only; actual break-even will move with job mix, labor use, and lead costs.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean Year 1 mix	$26,200	$5,764	$20,450	78%	-$14	Very close to break-even; small gains matter.
Base Year 2 mix	$35,500	$7,349	$28,158	79.3%	-$7	Commercial mix helps, but the cushion is still thin.
Full Year 3 mix	$42,400	$8,187	$34,200	80.7%	$13	Higher commercial share gives the best cushion here.

What breaks the duct cleaning break-even plan?

Stress test

The plan is tight from day one. Break-even is about $26,200 a month, so a small revenue miss or a bit more overhead shows up fast. Fuel, overtime, ad spend, and equipment repairs are the first pressure points.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$26,200	$0 cushion	Break-even is tight, so any miss matters.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue runs 10% below plan.	$26,200	$2,620 gap	A small booking miss turns into a cash hole.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises by $2,000 a month.	$28,800	$2,600 gap	Higher rent, payroll, or software lifts the hurdle.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 22% to 27%.	$28,000	$1,800 gap	Fuel and labor squeeze the margin fast.
Combined pressure	Variable expenses rise to 27% and fixed overhead rises to $22,450.	$30,800	$4,600 gap	More cost pressure means more booked work just to stand still.

Can a duct cleaning founder prove break-even before signing the lease and buying the vans?

Founder checklist

Yes. Test the job flow, pricing, and cash cushion first, because this model only works if it can reach break-even around Month 7 without starving the crew, the truck fleet, or the launch budget.

1Demand proof504 jobs/yr

Verify the market can support about 42 break-even jobs a month before you lock in the lease and route plan.

2Fixed load$2.95K/mo

Verify the $1,500 rent and the $2,950 recurring monthly load still fit the revenue plan before you add hiring.

3Route margin78% CM

Verify the first-year mix still leaves about 78% contribution margin after consumables, training, fuel, and lead-gen spend.

4Crew ramp42 jobs/mo

Verify the $210,000 Year 1 payroll lines up with about 42 jobs a month before equipment so staffing does not outrun booked work.

5Cash cushion$760K min

Verify you can fund the Month 7 cash trough of about $760,000 before breakeven, since payroll and capex hit before the model matures.

6Launch spend$162K start

Verify the $162,000 startup purchase plan and the $15,000 Year 1 ad budget at $150 CAC can launch enough work without overbuying vans or gear.