Pho Restaurant Break-Even Analysis: $65K Monthly Sales Target

Fixed costs $15.6K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 82% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $19.1K/mo Revenue needed

Break-even timing Month 3 Model reaches break-even

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed monthly costs shape break-even for a pho restaurant.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin available to cover fixed costs. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses These rise with sales, like food, packaging, and processing fees. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $234,360 $280,000 revenue - $45,640 variable expenses

Margin ratio

84%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base contribution margin must cover. $ Lean base Heavy base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which costs stay fixed, and which move with sales for a noodle soup restaurant?

Cost classification

If steady overhead and step-up payroll get treated like sales-driven costs, break-even will look too easy. If ingredients, packaging, and card fees get treated as fixed, the model will hide margin pressure as covers grow.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Use $10,000 per month from Month 1 through Month 60 in fixed overhead.	Spreading rent per cover and making break-even look lower on busy days.
Licenses, permits, insurance, and cleaning services	Fixed	Include $2,050 per month: $300 licenses and permits, $750 insurance, and $1,000 cleaning services.	Dropping small fixed bills because they do not move with orders.
Food and beverage ingredients	Variable	Model as a sales-linked input: 12.0% of sales in the first year, declining to 10.0% by the mature year.	Treating broth, noodles, beef, herbs, and beverages as fixed kitchen overhead.
Eco-friendly packaging	Variable	Apply the packaging rate to sales: 0.5% in the first year and 0.4% from the third year onward.	Putting packaging into fixed overhead even though takeout volume drives it.
Payment processing fees	Variable	Apply card fees to sales: 2.0% in the first year, then 1.8% by the fourth year.	Ignoring fees and overstating contribution margin on every paid order.
Marketing and promotion	Variable	Model as a sales-linked spend: 4.0% in the first year, stepping down to 2.5% by the mature year.	Locking marketing as a flat monthly line and missing customer acquisition spend.
Utilities base and excess usage	Semi-variable	Keep the $2,000 monthly utilities base fixed; add usage-linked charges only when kitchen volume supports them.	Treating all utilities as fixed while burners, refrigeration, and dishwashing scale with covers.
Chef, manager, core kitchen, and front-of-house staffing	Semi-fixed	Hold core salaries in fixed overhead, then add staffing in steps as cover volume grows.	Treating all payroll as variable and missing the cash drag before new shifts are full.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full pho restaurant cases?

Scenario table

Traffic and ticket mix change the margin pool, so break-even moves fast. Lean sits on the line; Year 1 and Year 2 traffic add cushion only if labor stays tight and rent stays in check.

These are planning assumptions, not guarantees; actual results will shift with demand, labor efficiency, and rent load.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean break-even case	$652K	$121K	$531K	81.5%	$0	At this load, profit is flat; any traffic dip turns into loss.
Base Year 1 traffic case	$1.40M	$259K	$531K	81.5%	$608K	This case gives a solid cushion if lunch and dinner demand hold.
Full Year 2 traffic case	$2.06M	$359K	$602K	82.6%	$1.10M	This case has the widest cushion, but staffing and rent still matter.

What pressures can push this pho restaurant off its break-even plan?

Stress test

The base plan has about $746K of monthly cushion above break-even, so it starts with room. The danger is a sales dip plus cost creep; a 20% revenue drop and higher variable costs still leave profit, but the buffer gets thin fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$652K	$746K cushion	Healthy buffer if sales hit plan.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 20% from the base plan.	$652K	$466K cushion	Still above break-even, but the buffer shrinks fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 10%.	$717K	$681K cushion	Higher overhead narrows room for mistakes.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 18.5% to 23.5% of revenue.	$694K	$704K cushion	Food, packaging, or payment costs can eat the cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 20%, variable expenses rise to 23.5%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$847K	$271K cushion	Still profitable, but a deeper sales miss turns it negative.

Can this pho restaurant clear break-even before you sign the lease and buy the kitchen?

Founder checklist

The model reaches break-even in Month 3, but only if Year 1 sales hold near $65.2K a month after 18.5% variable cost. It also has to keep $684K minimum cash through Month 5.

1Demand Proof1.84K covers/mo

Year 1 traffic averages about 1.84K covers a month, so the opening month needs real traffic, not just a menu on paper.

2Fixed Load$53.1K/mo

Keep rent near $10K and the rest of the fixed load in line, because Year 1 payroll plus overhead totals about $53.1K a month before food and promo.

3Unit Margin81.5% CM

Food, packaging, promo, and card fees take 18.5% of sales in Year 1, so the menu has to protect the 81.5% contribution margin that pays the fixed load.

4Staffing Ramp9.5 FTE

The opening roster is 9.5 FTE, with kitchen and front-of-house staffing rising later, so the schedule has to match the Friday-through-Sunday rush.

5Cash Cushion$684K min cash

Hold the cash floor above $684K in Month 5, because the build and early ramp still burn cash before the business settles.

6Launch Build$417K capex

Keep pre-opening capex inside $417K for kitchen equipment, furniture, systems, leasehold work, HVAC, website, lighting, and office gear.