Vintage Store Break-Even: About $169K Monthly Revenue Needed

Fixed costs $8.8K/mo Core monthly base

Contribution margin 81.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $10.8K/mo Revenue at zero profit

Break-even timing Month 37 Launch to break-even

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and fixed costs, and see where the shop breaks even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the cash available to cover fixed costs after variable costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These rise with sales, like inventory, restoration, marketing, and shipping. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $42,436 $50,459 revenue - $8,023 variable expenses

Margin ratio

84%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base the shop must cover before profit starts. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which vintage store expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even works only if fixed expenses stay in the numerator and sales-linked expenses reduce margin. For this shop, payroll steps and usage-linked utilities can shift the Month 37 break-even if they’re treated too simply.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Retail Space Rent, $3,500/month	Fixed	Include the full monthly amount in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating rent as a percent of sales and overstating margin at low traffic.
Utilities, $450/month	Semi-variable	Use the base monthly amount, then watch usage as store hours, visitors, and cleaning needs rise.	Modeling utilities as fully fixed even when traffic and operating hours expand.
Store Insurance, $150/month	Fixed	Include the monthly premium in fixed overhead for the break-even calculation.	Dropping small fixed bills because they look immaterial one by one.
POS System & Software, $100/month	Fixed	Keep the subscription in fixed overhead unless transaction fees are modeled separately.	Bundling software with card fees and blurring fixed overhead with sales-linked fees.
Store Manager payroll, $5,000/month	Fixed	Include the full manager salary as monthly fixed overhead at 1.0 FTE.	Allocating manager pay to each sale and making contribution margin look too low.
Vintage Buyer payroll, $1,875/month in first year	Semi-fixed	Model as a staffing step: 0.5 FTE in the first year, then higher FTE in later years.	Using one flat monthly payroll number across all years despite planned FTE changes.
Inventory Acquisition	Variable	Deduct as revenue-linked COGS, starting at 10.0% of sales in the first year.	Putting inventory purchases in fixed overhead and overstating break-even revenue.
Marketing & Event Costs	Variable	Deduct as a sales-linked expense, starting at 5.0% of sales in the first year.	Treating every event dollar as fixed even when spend is meant to follow traffic and sales.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full vintage store formats?

Scenario table

As traffic, conversion, mix, and staffing scale up, break-even revenue rises with the heavier cost base. The model is still negative in Years 1 to 3 and turns positive in Year 4.

Planning assumptions only; real results will shift with traffic, markdowns, and staffing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean vintage store	$169,000	$155,225	$13,775	8.2%	$0	Lowest cash load, but even small traffic misses hurt.
Base vintage store	$233,000	$213,392	$19,608	8.4%	$0	Middle-case plan; it needs steady conversion to hold break-even.
Full vintage store	$272,000	$248,433	$23,567	8.7%	$0	Highest revenue bar, so staffing and markdown control matter most.

What pressure pushes this vintage store past break-even?

Stress test

The plan is tight because fixed overhead is already $13,775 a month. A 10% revenue miss or a 5-point margin squeeze can move break-even fast, so sell-through, rent, payroll, markdowns, and payment fees need close watch.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$169,000	$0 gap	The store only just clears break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue runs 10% below the base case.	$169,000	$14,000 gap	Slower sell-through creates an immediate cash hole.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise by $1,500 per month.	$187,000	$18,000 gap	Rent or payroll creep lifts the floor fast.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin drops 5 points to 76.5%.	$180,000	$11,000 gap	Markdowns, fees, and weak sell-through squeeze margin.
Combined pressure	Fixed costs rise $1,500 and margin drops to 76.5%.	$200,000	$31,000 gap	Small cost creep on both sides can break cash flow.

Should you sign the lease and buy opening inventory for a vintage store yet?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease or buy opening inventory until Year 1 traffic, payroll, and cash runway all clear the model. This store needs about $13.8K a month for rent and fixed overhead, $91K of opening capex, and $474K of cash by Month 37.

1Lease Load$13.8K/mo

Rent is $3,500 and Year 1 payroll is $9,375 a month, so confirm sales can cover the full fixed load before you lock in the lease.

2Traffic Proof30 buyers/wk

Year 1 traffic totals about 380 visitors a week, which means roughly 30 buyers at an 8.0% conversion rate before the store can lean on fixed costs.

3Margin Mix81.5% CM

Inventory acquisition, cleaning, marketing and event costs, and packaging take about 18.5% of sales in Year 1, so you keep roughly 81.5% before rent and wages.

4Staffing Ramp2.5 FTE

Year 1 staffing is 2.5 FTE across the manager, buyer, and sales roles, so verify weekend coverage and intake speed before opening.

5Launch Build$91K

The opening build needs about $91K across build-out, fixtures, POS, security, display inventory, website, the used van, and launch materials, so finish these before major spend.

6Cash Runway$474K

The model shows a $474K minimum cash point in Month 37, after EBITDA stays negative through Year 3, so don’t commit without that reserve.