Water Bottle Refill Station Break-Even Analysis: $469K/Month

Fixed costs $6.3K/mo Monthly overhead

Contribution margin 89% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $7.1K/mo Zero-EBITDA run rate

Break-even timing Month 38 Model breakeven point

Break-even calculator

Use monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs to see where a refill station breaks even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin left to cover monthly overhead. $ Low volume High volume Variable expenses Include direct costs that rise with each refill. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $115,000 $127,000 revenue - $12,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

91%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead break-even must absorb. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which refill station expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Classify the 11.0% first-year revenue-linked charges as variable and keep the $6,300 monthly overhead separate. Then add payroll as semi-fixed because full-time roles step up as the station network grows.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent	Fixed	Carry $2,500/month in overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Tying rent to refill volume.
Cloud Hosting & Software Licenses	Fixed	Carry $1,000/month in overhead even when refill count is low.	Treating the platform bill as per-order processing.
Utilities & Internet	Fixed	Source data sets $300/month; track metered water or power usage separately if billed by refill.	Hiding usage-based water and power inside the fixed line.
Water Filters & CO2 Canisters	Variable	Apply 4.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 3.0% by the mature year.	Using one flat dollar amount despite sales mix and volume.
Flavoring Concentrates	Variable	Apply 2.0% of revenue across the model period.	Spreading flavor costs across all refills as fixed overhead.
Payment Processing Fees & Data Plans	Variable	Apply 3.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 2.0% by the mature year.	Leaving fees out of contribution margin.
Kiosk Maintenance Consumables	Variable	Apply 2.0% of revenue; it rises as refill activity rises.	Budgeting consumables only once per kiosk.
Labor Coverage	Semi-fixed	Add salary by full-time equivalent; first-year payroll is about $35,417/month before later staffing step-ups.	Holding headcount flat as station count and service load grow.

How does break-even shift from a lean refill station setup to base and full scale?

Scenario table

Higher traffic and better pricing raise contribution faster than costs, so the full setup has the best cushion. Still, the lean and base cases stay deep in the red because fixed overhead is heavy until volume builds.

Planning case figures are scenario assumptions, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean refill kiosk	$15k	$2k	$417k	89%	$-404k	Far below break-even; fixed cost load dominates.
Base network build	$383k	$38k	$573k	90%	$-229k	Still short of break-even, but traffic is improving.
Full scaled network	$1,340k	$126k	$701k	90.6%	$513k	Positive cushion; model break-even aligns with Month 38.

What breaks the refill station break-even plan?

Stress test

The plan breaks first on overhead scale and thin margin slack. Month 37 cash bottoms at about -$1.319M, Month 38 is breakeven timing, and Month 55 is payback, so any revenue miss or FTE jump pushes the runway hard.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$458k	$0 gap	Base case still reaches breakeven around Month 38, but cash stays tight.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue lands $10k below the $469k first-year break-even level.	$469k	$10k gap	At 89% margin, that miss cuts contribution by about $890.
Fixed-cost increase	Year 4 overhead rises with FTE scaling.	$773k	$315k gap	Higher headcount pushes the break-even bar much higher and slows payback.
Margin pressure	Variable expense stays at Year 1's 11% instead of improving toward 9%.	$469k	$11k gap	That small cost swing keeps break-even above the base case.
Combined pressure	Year 4 overhead meets Year 1 margin pressure.	$787k	$329k gap	This is the tightest case and leaves very little room before payback.

What should you verify before signing the lease and buying the kiosks?

Founder checklist

Test the site against the break-even math before you sign anything. The model needs about $469.2K in monthly revenue, or roughly 391K paid refills at a $1.20 Year 1 average order value, and cash has to hold through Month 38.

1Traffic Test$469.2K/mo

Confirm the site can produce about 391,000 paid refills a month at a $1.20 Year 1 average order value, because that is the revenue level implied by break-even.

2Lease Load$41.7K/mo

Only sign the lease or site fee if the full fixed load stays near $41.7K a month before variable costs; higher rent pushes the traffic bar out of reach.

3Price Mix$1.20 AOV

Price still water, sparkling water, and flavored water to the Year 1 mix of 70%, 20%, and 10%; that blend gives a $1.20 average order value and anchors the revenue test.

4Supply Cost11% of revenue

Verify filters, CO2 canisters, flavoring, maintenance consumables, processing fees, and data plans can stay near 11% of revenue, or the 89% contribution margin will slide.

5Hiring Ramp5.0 FTEs

Phase hiring to the actual launch load: Year 1 totals 5.0 full-time equivalents and about $425K in payroll, so adding staff too early can erase margin.

6Cash RunwayMonth 38

Fund the $560K startup asset build and enough cash to cover the Month 37 low point of -$1.319M; the model does not reach break-even until Month 38 and payback until Month 55.