Wholesale Business Break-Even Analysis: $455K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $14.3K Monthly overhead base

Contribution margin 83.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $17.1K Monthly sales target

Break-even timing Month 14 Model payback point

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly revenue, direct costs, and overhead line up with wholesale break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the top line that pays direct and fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with each sale, like freight and processing. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $126,352 $149,000 revenue - $22,648 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the contribution margin must cover. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which wholesale expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Wholesale break-even is only useful if rent and software stay fixed while inventory, freight, payment fees, and fulfillment move with orders. Misclassifying resale inventory as overhead can make Month 14 break-even look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Warehouse Lease	Fixed	Treat the $6,000 monthly lease as base overhead.	Spreading rent across units and hiding the monthly hurdle.
Office Rent	Fixed	Include the $2,500 monthly rent in fixed overhead.	Linking office rent to order volume.
E-commerce Platform Licenses	Fixed	Include the $1,800 monthly license charge before contribution margin.	Treating core software like a per-order fee.
Utilities (Office & Warehouse)	Semi-variable	Keep the $1,200 base load, then flex usage as warehouse activity rises.	Modeling all utilities as fixed during volume growth.
Inventory Bought for Resale	Variable	Charge inventory against each unit sold before contribution margin.	Treating resale goods like rent instead of unit-driven spend.
Inbound Freight & Customs	Variable	Apply the revenue-linked rate, starting at 5.0% in the first year.	Leaving landed freight out of gross margin.
Warehouse Receiving & Stocking Labor	Variable	Apply the volume-linked rate, starting at 3.0% in the first year.	Counting receiving labor as office payroll.
Operating Payroll Hiring Steps	Semi-fixed	Add staff in capacity steps as sales, support, and warehouse roles expand.	Assuming payroll rises smoothly with every order.

How does break-even change from lean to base to full scale in this wholesale business?

Scenario table

The break-even floor rises as the model scales: lean needs about $45.5k a month, base about $66.7k, and full about $81.8k. Fixed costs climb faster than margin improves, so Month 14 is the model break-even point.

Planning case only; these figures are assumptions, not a guarantee.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean wholesale launch	$45,509	$7,509	$38,000	83.5%	$0	Lower fixed cost, but little cushion.
Base wholesale scale	$66,677	$10,135	$56,542	84.8%	$0	Highlighted case; Month 14 is the break-even point.
Full wholesale scale	$81,787	$11,287	$70,500	86.2%	$0	Higher margin helps, but volume still has to hold.

What breaks the break-even plan for this wholesale business?

Stress test

The plan is tight at Month 14 break-even. A 10% sales miss, a 10% fixed-cost bump, or a 5-point margin squeeze can flip it into a monthly loss, and the combined shock is where cash pressure gets serious.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$45,509	$0 cushion	No slack if sales slip.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% to $40,958.	$45,509	$4,551 gap	A small sell-through miss turns into loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to $41,800.	$45,509	$3,800 gap	Higher rent or overhead cuts the cushion fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 points to 215%.	$45,509	$2,275 gap	Supplier and freight pressure can erase profit.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable expenses rise 5 points.	$45,509	$9,640 gap	Three small hits stack into a deep monthly loss.

What should you verify before you lock in the warehouse lease, buy bulk inventory, or hire ahead of demand?

Founder checklist

Test whether the Year 1 pipeline can hold about $45,500 in monthly sales and whether cash can survive the Month 13 trough before you commit to fixed costs. If those numbers are shaky, the break-even plan is not ready.

1Demand Proof$45.5K/mo

Confirm the sales pipeline can support about $45,500 in monthly Year 1 revenue; at 50 units per order, that means roughly 117 monthly orders, so the fixed base can actually clear.

2Fixed Load$38K

Check the Year 1 fixed overhead of $38,000 before adding warehouse space, because that base cost has to be covered before inventory and freight swings can be absorbed.

3Margin Mix83.5% CM

Verify Year 1 orders keep about 83.5% contribution margin, meaning what’s left after inbound freight, warehouse labor, shipping, and payment fees, because every 1-point drop pushes break-even farther out.

4Staffing RampMonth 13

Hold the Month 13 hiring ramp until repeat orders are steady, because repeat customers rise from 30% of new customers in Year 1 to 45% in Year 2, and payroll only works if reorder volume follows.

5Cash Cushion$464K

Verify you can fund the $464,000 minimum cash trough in Month 13 and stage the $190,000 capex across racking, forklifts, systems, furniture, development, the van, security, and IT, because both hit cash before break-even.

6Reorder Timing50 units/order

Set reorder points before buying bulk pallets, because 50 units per order can trap cash fast if freight and returns run hotter than planned.