Wind Farm Break-Even Analysis: $146K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $78.0K Monthly overhead

Contribution margin 95% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $82.1K Needed each month

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly power sales, variable costs, and fixed overhead affect the break-even point.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash that has to clear variable cost and fixed overhead. $ Low output High output Variable expenses Use direct costs that rise with power sales, REC sales, and market activity. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $2,423,200 $2,524,167 revenue - $100,967 variable expenses

Margin ratio

96%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that margin must cover before profit starts. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which wind farm expenses are fixed, and which move with electricity sales?

Cost classification

Classifying costs correctly keeps break-even from looking cleaner than cash reality. Fixed monthly items must be covered before margin matters, while revenue-linked fees should scale with electricity, renewable energy certificate (REC), and ancillary service sales.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Land Lease Payments	Fixed	Include $50,000 per month in the monthly fixed burden from Month 1 through Month 60.	Tying lease expense to energy output instead of treating it as a required site payment.
Administrative Office Rent	Fixed	Include $5,000 per month before calculating operating break-even volume.	Dropping office rent during low-output months even though the lease still runs.
General Insurance	Fixed	Include $10,000 per month as recurring overhead that does not move with sales volume.	Modeling insurance as a percentage of revenue when the assumption is monthly.
IT & Communications	Fixed	Include $2,500 per month as baseline operating support for site and office systems.	Scaling the full amount with megawatt-hour sales instead of keeping it flat.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model staffing in steps: $730,000 in the first year, then $800,000 in the second year as site technician headcount rises.	Spreading payroll as a smooth revenue percentage instead of adding staff in headcount steps.
Direct Energy Transmission Fees	Variable	Apply the revenue-linked rate, starting at 2.0% in the first year and falling to 1.5% by the fourth year.	Treating transmission fees as fixed overhead and overstating contribution margin at higher output.
Ancillary Services Market Fees	Variable	Apply the fee to ancillary services revenue, starting at 1.0% in the first year and 0.8% from the third year onward.	Applying the fee to all revenue streams instead of the ancillary services activity it follows.
Environmental Compliance Monitoring	Variable	Apply the sales-linked rate, starting at 1.5% in the first year and settling at 1.2% by the fourth year.	Forgetting this recurring compliance load and making break-even look too easy.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full wind farm scenarios?

Scenario table

Break-even stays in Month 1 because output is modeled as MWh sold, so installed capacity isn’t the driver here. As revenue rises from Year 1 to Year 3, the contribution margin widens and fixed costs are covered with more cushion.

Planning assumptions only; actual output, prices, fees, and fixed costs can move with wind conditions and contract terms.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean case (Year 1)	$1.021M	$51k	$139k	95.0%	$831k	Month 1 break-even, but cushion is thin.
Base case (Year 2)	$1.741M	$78k	$145k	95.5%	$1.518M	Month 1 break-even with a wider cushion.
Full case (Year 3)	$2.524M	$101k	$145k	96.0%	$2.279M	Month 1 break-even with the widest cushion.

What could push this wind farm past break-even?

Stress test

Year 1 monthly revenue is about $1.021M versus break-even near $146K, so the monthly cushion is about $875K. Curtailment, downtime, repair spikes, transmission fee increases, and PPA price compression are the main break risks.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$146,140	$874,693 cushion	The base plan clears break-even with room to spare.
Revenue shortfall	Electricity sales volume falls 10% in Year 1.	$146,140	$793,443 cushion	Curtailed output or downtime cuts the buffer fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Add $10,000 a month to fixed overhead.	$156,667	$864,166 cushion	Overhead drift lifts break-even even when output holds.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 1 percentage point of revenue.	$147,694	$873,139 cushion	Higher transmission or compliance fees squeeze margin.
Combined pressure	Electricity sales fall 10%, fixed overhead rises $10,000 a month, and variable expenses rise 1 point.	$158,333	$781,250 cushion	Stacked output loss, overhead creep, and fee pressure hit the cushion hardest.

What should you verify before signing the land lease and starting the wind farm build?

Founder checklist

Don’t commit to the build until wind output, grid access, and buyer paths are locked. The model shows $9.9M of Year 1 EBITDA, but cash still bottoms at $41.5M negative in Month 10, so the real test is whether the project survives the build-out.

1Wind Yield150,000 MWh

Verify site wind data before you count on 150,000 MWh in Year 1, because output is the base that every other line sits on.

2Power Price$65/MWh

Confirm the buyer path can clear the modeled $65/MWh price, because that price is what keeps contribution margin, meaning revenue left after variable costs, wide enough to absorb the fixed load.

3REC Path$15 each

Verify certificate buyers before you count the $15 REC line, because that revenue can vanish fast if the market is thin.

4Fixed Load$138.8K/mo

The project carries about $138.8K a month in fixed cost, so keep headcount and leases in step with commissioning.

5Grid Scope$6.0M

Clear interconnection scope before you spend the $6.0M grid budget, because a late tie-in delays launch and pushes cash burn higher.

6Cash CushionMonth 10, ($41.5M)

Hold enough cash for the Month 10 trough, because minimum cash lands at negative $41.5M before the model turns back up.