Wind Farm Break-Even: $118K Monthly Revenue Before Surplus

Fixed costs $103.8K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 88% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $118K/mo Covers fixed burn

Break-even timing Month 13 Model breakeven point

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for wind farm development.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Sales each month set the margin available to cover fixed costs. $ Early stage Scaled phase Variable expenses Direct project costs rise as revenue and project volume grow. $ Light direct costs Heavy direct costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $4,676,667 $5,083,333 revenue - $406,667 variable expenses

Margin ratio

92%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead base contribution margin must cover. $ Lean overhead Full overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which wind farm development expenses are fixed, and which move with project sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if fixed spend and activity-linked spend are split cleanly. Here, fixed overhead is modest, but project percentages and payroll steps can move the Month 13 break-even if treated wrong.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent	Fixed	Model at $10,000 per month from Month 1 through Month 60, regardless of project revenue.	Flexing rent with sales and understating the cash needed before Month 13 break-even.
Utilities & Internet	Fixed	Model at $1,500 per month as baseline office overhead during the planning range.	Using $15,000 per month instead of the stated $1,500 and overstating fixed burn.
Development Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model in staffing steps: Year 1 salaries are about $910,000, or $75,833 per month, then rise as engineers, project managers, legal counsel, and data science staff are added.	Treating payroll as a smooth revenue percentage instead of hiring in lumpy FTE steps.
Project Partner Due Diligence Support	Variable	Model as a revenue-linked rate, falling from 2.0% in the first year to 0.7% by Year 5.	Leaving the rate flat and missing margin lift as project volume scales.
Project Specific Legal & Advisory Fees	Variable	Model as a direct project revenue percentage, from 3.0% in the first year to 1.2% by Year 5.	Double-counting legal work by adding both outside advisory fees and internal legal payroll without a clear split.
Project Specific Land & Permitting	Semi-variable	Model as project-activity driven, starting at 3.0% of revenue in the first year and declining to 1.5% by Year 5.	Treating land and permitting as one-time setup spend when it scales with the project pipeline.
Meteorological & Environmental Studies	Semi-variable	Model as study work tied to project activity, starting at 4.0% of revenue in the first year and declining to 2.0% by Year 5.	Booking studies only once, even though new sites need recurring wind, environmental, and diligence work.

How does break-even change from lean development to full wind buildout?

Scenario table

As the mix shifts from fee-only development to electricity and shovel-ready sales, revenue grows faster than the team and office costs. That pushes break-even from tight in Year 1 to much safer in Years 2 and 3.

Planning numbers only; permit timing, grid access, and power prices can change the outcome.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean: Year 1 development-fee phase	$125k	$15k	$116k	88%	-$6k	Still near the edge; fee revenue barely covers the fixed team.
Base: Year 2 early operating case	$1.5m	$150k	$160k	90%	$1.2m	Break-even turns positive once power sales start carrying overhead.
Full: Year 3 scaled buildout	$5.1m	$408k	$185k	92%	$4.5m	This is well past break-even; fixed cost is diluted across more revenue.

What breaks the break-even plan for a wind farm developer?

Stress test

Year 2 still has a wide cushion, but the plan is most exposed to delayed interconnection, weaker power prices, curtailment, and slower shovel-ready project sales. Cost creep matters, but revenue timing is the bigger stress point.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Year 2 revenue at $18.0m with a 90% contribution margin and $1.666m fixed costs.	$1.85m	$16.15m cushion	Break-even sits far below planned revenue.
Revenue shortfall	Year 2 revenue falls 10% to $16.2m.	$1.85m	$14.35m cushion	Lower revenue trims cushion, but not to the edge.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to $1.833m.	$2.04m	$15.96m cushion	Overhead creep lifts the break-even floor.
Margin pressure	Variable and project-specific expense load rises 2 points to 12%, cutting margin to 88%.	$1.89m	$16.11m cushion	Higher support and study costs eat into spread.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, margin drops to 88%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$2.08m	$14.12m cushion	Delayed revenue plus cost creep hits cash flow first.

What should you verify before you commit to land, turbines, and hiring?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock in land, turbines, or hiring until the project can carry its Month 1 to Month 10 capex and still keep $50K cash in Month 12. The model turns cash-positive in Month 13, so the first commitment has to match the ramp, not the long-run story.

1Land Rights$250K

Verify lease access and renewal terms before any deposit, because the model sets aside $250K for initial land rights exploration in Months 9 to 10.

2Permitting ScopeMonth 1-60

Lock study scope and timing now, because project-specific land and permitting still take 3.0% of revenue in Year 1 and 1.5% in Year 5.

3Grid AccessYear 2

Test the interconnection path before you spend on equipment, because electricity sales are zero in Year 1 and rise to $5,000,000 in Year 2 only if the grid path works.

4Revenue Mix$15.5M

Separate electricity sales, renewable energy credits, and shovel-ready project sales, because Year 2 already assumes $15,500,000 from those streams and the 88% pre-payroll margin has to hold.

5Team Ramp$910K/yr

Check turbine procurement lead times and engineering, procurement, and construction contractor readiness before you hire ahead, because Year 1 payroll already runs about $910,000 and staffing rises further in Year 2.

6Cash Cushion$50K M12

Protect cash through Month 12, because the model bottoms at $50,000 then and does not break even until Month 13.